Although Israel did not take responsibility for the assassination of Tamer al-Kilani yesterday in Nablus, one does not need to be an expert on terrorism to guess who had the will and ability to carry out such an operation.
Al-Khilani was a ticking time bomb.
Israel has tried to arrest him several times in recent months and has also demanded that the Palestinian Authority act against him.
The Palestinians were afraid or they did not succeed, but the bottom line was the same: he remained in the field and gained momentum together with the group in which he operated - "Lion's Den" - which became a significant threat to both Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Ticking bomb.
Tamer Al-Khilani, photo: Arab Networks
The elimination of al-Khilani teaches several things.
The first, that Israel decided to change policy - to act also to eliminate terrorists and not only to arrest them.
Since the second intifada, Israel has acted only to arrest wanted persons - both to extract information from them in the investigation and to insist on its complete freedom of action in the territories of the PA.
Although this often cost the lives of fighters, it helped to maintain deterrence and prevent the Palestinian territories from becoming havens for terrorists.
The ability exists as before
The second, that Israel wishes to avoid as much as possible casualties in operations in the West Bank. First and foremost, we are talking about casualties to IDF forces, but also the increasing number of Palestinian casualties - including non-involved ones - has recently troubled the political-security elite, because every death means funerals, Mourning booths and constant potential for revenge and further friction.
IDF activity in Yosh, photo: report
The third, that Israel wants to allow the Palestinian Authority to regain control of the Nablus sector.
Unlike the Jenin refugee camp, where Israel continues to act aggressively and intensively knowing that the Palestinian Authority does not exist, Nablus is a completely different story: the capital of Samaria, an economic and civil center whose fall could reverberate throughout the territories and destabilize the PA.
It seems that all these (together with the desire to avoid being dragged into a large-scale military operation during the election days) led to the decision to return to the old way of targeted elimination.
The creativity used in the operation is known from the past and characterizes the operatives of the Shin Bet. The means of warfare vary from case to case, but the combination of precise intelligence, a surprising and deadly weapon, and the ability to combine the two in the heart of a hostile population and against an elusive and suspicious target, is evidence that the high operational capability exists As in the past, a decision by the political echelon (only he is authorized to approve eliminations) is required to implement it.
Underground entrance to the area
But this success attributed to Israel must not become an exclusive course of action in the future.
Israel must preserve for itself an extensive basket of action options, in order to ensure maximum achievement.
Sometimes it will be correct to operate on the ground, sometimes to try and lure the target out of his comfort zone in order to intercept or damage him, and sometimes - to eliminate him by other methods.
The last option should be taken only when it is clear that the first two are not applicable, or the risk involved is too great.
Activity of IDF forces in Judea and Samaria, photo: IDF spokesman
This is the situation, for example, in Gaza or the northern arena.
In Israel, on the other hand, Israel must continue to operate also by way of land entry into the territory. It can be assumed that Israel would also prefer to arrest and interrogate al-Khilani, so that he would provide information about the attacks he carried out, the terrorists he employed and the weapons he had accumulated, and about future attacks he planned. None of this will be possible to achieve from him now. Instead, deterrence has been achieved due to the chosen surprising method of operation attributed to Israel, but it must ensure that the element of surprise - and the superiority of operational intelligence - will be preserved in the future as well.
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