Russia's Ukraine withdrawal from Kherson: Expert predicts chaos and sees three problems

Created: 10/23/2022, 4:54 p.m

By: Bettina Menzel

Mobilized reservists of the Russian army during an exercise close to the front.

Now the Russian troops may want to retreat behind the Dnieper River (archive photo October 1).

© IMAGO/Stanislav Krasilnikov / ITAR-TASS

A retreat in the war does not have to be a harbinger of catastrophe, says military expert Mick Ryan - but things could be "chaotic" with the Russian troops in Kherson.

Kyiv - The pro-Russian authorities called on all civilians in the Ukraine war on Saturday to leave the southern Ukrainian city of Cherson "immediately".

War experts assume that the Russian troops also want to withdraw from the area.

From the point of view of analyst and former general Mick Ryan, while such a withdrawal is not a disaster, it is difficult - and could pose problems for Russia in Kherson.

Failure to retreat can result in the loss of the entire force

As recently as September, Putin had forbidden his generals to withdraw from Cherson.

On Saturday, there were reports of a Russian troop movement suggesting a withdrawal from the region.

The evacuation of civilians could go hand in hand with Russian plans to blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam to cover their movements, war experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said.

A retreat is not a harbinger of disaster, but a routine tactic in warfare, analyst and former General Mick Ryan noted on Twitter on Sunday.

The reasons could be varied, for example due to supply difficulties or if there are other tasks with a higher priority for the troops.

However, a successful retreat always requires excellent planning and coordination, which must be underpinned by good leadership.

One must be aware "that one mistake can result in the loss of the entire retreat force." The military expert believes that "determined, aggressive Ukrainian ground forces" will be on the Russians' heels in Kherson.

The Ukrainians are trying to eliminate or capture as much of the Russian forces as possible on the west bank of the Dnieper River.

According to military expert Mick Ryan, this would be a "significant strategic success".

Withdrawing Russian Troops: Civilians as Human Shields?

In a retreat, deception is essential, says Mick Ryan.

However, an intention to withdraw is difficult to hide.

The former general names the simulation of normal activities or increased fire support as classic strategies.

This is difficult for the Russian troops on the Dnieper River to implement, but not impossible.

also read

Construction of the "Wagner Line" stopped: "Putin's Koch" gives new indications of cracks in Russia's power apparatus

Russia's new Ukraine strategy: US experts name Putin's goals - and have doubts about their success

The order of withdrawal is also crucial for the Russian armed forces.

“This includes when and how to evacuate logistical supplies, headquarters, reconnaissance elements and ground combat troops.

This depends on where and in what strength the enemy is harassing the troops to be withdrawn," Ryan continued to analyze.

The third problem for Russia is interfering with the ability of the Ukrainians to obstruct the withdrawal, says the military expert.

"We should expect that the withdrawing Russians will use more air defenses, jammers and artillery and also receive more air support.

They may also use civilians as human shields," Ryan warned.

The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope

View photo gallery

Withdrawal of Russian forces could be 'chaotic'

Finally, appropriate leadership and control of the orderly withdrawal in the planned order is important.

The point is that the units do not leave their defensive positions too early, according to the analyst.

Good discipline is required for this.

Because the position must be held until the agreed time.

"This can be very difficult if there is a strong tendency to withdraw earlier than planned." The smaller the remaining troops are, the more likely this discipline breaks down.

"Russian battlefield leadership and discipline in this war has not been particularly good," Ryan summarizes, concluding, "We can expect the later stages of their withdrawal to be chaotic." In general, retreat is always aspiring a so-called "clean break" - i.e. a "clear cut".

The Russian troops would therefore have to withdraw in such a way that the Ukrainian armed forces would not be able to pursue them.

The Dnieper River plays a crucial role here.

Expert: Mobilized reservists could be used "to die"

The key to a "clean cut" is an effective rear guard that prevents enemy pursuit.

"I assume that the Russian rear guard will consist of armored and mounted infantry forces." These forces could move quickly.

However, newly mobilized reservists could also be deployed "to stay, fight, delay and die to buy time to retreat."