A woman passes in front of some banners with the faces of the candidates, in Brasilia. EVARISTO SA (AFP)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro.
Or neither.
More than 90% of Brazilians already have their vote decided, but about 5% of voters remain undecided or plan to vote blank.
In one of the closest Brazilian elections in recent times, this group is enough to tip the balance.
Convincing them and, at the same time, reducing abstention have become priority objectives of the campaigns for the last week before the second round.
The candidates multiply their appearances in key States.
Everything can depend on seemingly innocuous factors such as the free bus, the day of the election or the existence of public holidays.
On Ipanema beach, football has relegated the electoral campaign to the background for a few hours.
It is a cloudy and sultry day in Rio de Janeiro.
Passers-by have taken off their candidates' shirts to put on the colors – red and black – of Flamengo, which is contesting the final of the Brazilian Cup at the Maracana stadium.
With or without party labels or colors, most Brazilians walking through this affluent neighborhood already know who to vote for.
“Bolsonaro 22!” replies a middle-aged couple.
“Lula, of course!” says a black woman with dreadlocks.
In the face of such blunt favoritism, Pedro Heredia, 27, is a rare exception.
This packing factory employee is in Rio to watch the match.
He is clear about his support for Flamengo, but not for the candidates in the election.
“I think I am going to vote null.
I doubt that the candidates are capable of taking Brazil to the level it deserves.
They do not represent the new,” he points out.
Four years ago he voted for Fernando Haddad, of the PT, but he does not like Lula because of the stain of corruption that tainted his mandates between 2003 and 2010. His girlfriend, Isabela Goretti, who will vote for the leader of the left, has resigned herself: "The main thing is that you don't vote for Bolsonaro."
Heredia is part of a highly valued group right now.
The undecided and those who vote white or null are a small block, but large enough to decide an election that looks increasingly tight, with a possible technical tie according to the latest polls.
However, the professor of Political Science at the University of São Paulo Glauco Peres believes that it is unlikely that blank voters will change their minds: “In this election, everyone knows who the candidates are.
Voters are very convinced.”
Some are ex-voters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, the candidates who were eliminated in the first round.
Rozema Conceiçao, a 46-year-old housewife out shopping, says she supported Tebet because she had no corruption convictions.
Despite the fact that her candidate now actively participates in Lula's campaign, she assures that she will not vote for him.
She, too, is not convinced by Bolsonaro, whom she supported four years ago "to get Lula out."
"He thought it would improve the situation, but it was the other way around," she says.
The strategy of the matches is not only to convince the undecided, but also those who stayed at home in the first round.
Abstention was 21%, the highest since 1998, and it's a formidable haul if either campaign gets a bite out of it.
While Bolsonaro has reinforced his message on ethical issues such as religion, Lula has emphasized economic issues such as the minimum wage.
"Our first objective is to convince people to go vote so that they can even speak ill of who they elected," declared the PT candidate this week.
Neither of them is interested in a high rate of abstention, points out political scientist Marco Antonio Teixeira, from the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
“Bolsonaro is harmed in the southeast, his largest pole of votes, and Lula, in the northeast,” he says.
On the other hand, Peres thinks that he does more harm to Lula.
“Normally, those who abstain are the poorer classes, who vote mainly for him.
His challenge is not to convince them to vote for the PT, but to ensure that they go to the polling station on that day”.
In that sense, the availability of public transport is a major concern in the PT campaign, but there is little it can do.
Each mayor decides.
In Rio de Janeiro, governed by the left, there will be free municipal buses on October 30;
in São Paulo, where an ally of Bolsonaro rules, no.
There are more factors that are out of the hands of the candidates.
The Friday before the elections is a holiday.
That mainly worries Bolsonaro, who has more support among high-income people, those who can afford to go from the bridge to the beach.
To avoid this, a majority of states have postponed the holiday for two weeks later.
Historically, in Brazil abstention has been higher in the second round than in the first.
However, both Teixeira and Peres agree that this time it could be different because voters perceive that much more is now at stake.
“These elections have a different connotation.
It is not only deciding who governs, but also a country project”, says Teixeira.
Bruno Silva, 37, did not vote in the first round because he thinks that politicians are all thieves.
He is a street vendor of colored combs, next to a subway entrance in the center of Rio de Janeiro.
With what he sells and the help from the government — the 600 reais a month from Auxilio Brasil — he barely has enough to pay the rent, 400 reais, and eat.
He was thinking of abstaining in the second round, but the bank has just warned him that the government has cut off his support.
“Before he was poor.
Now I am in misery, in a hole, ”he assures.
"They say that Lula stole, but at least she did something for the poor."
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