By Mark
Murray
With less than three weeks to go before the US midterm elections, voter interest has reached an all-time high for such an election contest, with most registered voters saying this election is "more important" to them. them than other midterms have been in the past.
Furthermore, about
80% of Democrats and Republicans believe that those who belong to the opposite party pose a threat
that, if not stopped, will end America as we know it.
And two-thirds of voters who are almost certain to support Democrats and Republicans say they would vote for their party's political candidate even if that person committed a moral failing inconsistent with their own values.
[Most of the US marshals are Trump supporters and intend to reinforce the border]
These are some of the main findings of a new national survey by NBC News, the sister network of Noticias Telemundo.
The results indicate that
there will be a close race on November 8
and send positive signs for the two main political parties.
Good and bad signs for both parties
There is good news for Democrats: President Joe Biden's approval rating is holding steady at 45%.
Regarding control of Congress, the poll indicates that an almost even number of Democrats and Republicans want their party to be in control.
Some
47%
of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, compared to
46%
who want Republicans in charge.
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Meanwhile, the top issue for voters is what they described as the "threat to democracy," according to the NBC News poll, the third in a row for this election.
For Republicans, one positive sign is that Biden's approval among independent voters and in swing states — known as
swing states
— is at a low level, around 30%, or just above 40%.
Another good sign for the Republican Party is that its supporters are showing more enthusiasm about participating in a midterm election.
And among those voters who said they plan to turn out this November, more (48%) said they want a Republican-controlled Congress than said they supported Democrats (47%), though the poll has a margin of mistake.
However, beyond these numbers on voting intentions and the historical interest in the upcoming elections, what stands out most in the NBC News survey is the anger shown by the
voters from both parties when asked what message they would like to send with their vote.
“Tell Biden to resign
,” said a Missouri Republican respondent.
“Save this country,” a New York state Republican woman responded.
“Democracy is in danger,” said a Democratic man from Massachusetts.
“Don't mess with reproductive rights,” said a female Democrat from California.
"We know that many will cast their vote out of anger," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican Bill McInturff and his team at the group Public Opinion Strategies.
"
We just don't know which side is angrier
," Horwitt added.
According to the poll, 47% of registered voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress.
This essentially implies no change from last month, when the two games were tied at 46% each.
Democrats have some of their biggest advantages among certain groups: Black voters (who prefer Democratic control of Congress by a 74%-13% margin), those between the ages of 18 and 34 (60%-30%), Latinos (57%-30%) and women (50%-43%).
Republicans, meanwhile, have an advantage over white voters (55%-40%), white voters without college degrees (61%-33%) and men (49%-43%).
And the parties are tied for support from independents, at 40% each.
[This is why Lin-Manuel Miranda believes that “Latinas can save this election”]
Among voters the NBC News poll identifies as likely voters (those with a strong interest in voting or who have a high turnout score), 48% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, versus 47% who want a Republican-controlled Congress. controlled by the Democrats.
It is the first time this polling cycle that likely voters have been measured.
A strong interest in elections
The survey also indicates that 70% of all registered voters express a strong interest in the upcoming election, scoring a "9" or "10" on the 10-point scale, which is the highest percentage in the survey for a mid-term vote, just three weeks before the appointment at the polls.
"It's very striking" to see greater interest now than when this same question was asked in 2018, a year that saw record turnout for a midterm election, said McInturff, the Republican pollster.
A voter marks her ballot during the first day of early voting in Atlanta on Monday, Oct. 17, 2022.Ben Gray/AP
If you split between parties, however,
78% of Republicans have a high interest in this election
, compared to 69% of Democrats.
That 9-point GOP enthusiasm lead increased from September (when it was at 3 points) and August (when it was just 2).
Additionally, 57% of all voters say this midterm is more important to them than the last one, a higher number than in the 2018 poll (52%) or the 2010 poll (44%).
[Right to abortion and firearms: the clash of Marco Rubio and Val Demings in the first electoral debate]
37% say that this election is just as important as the previous ones and 6% say that it is less important.
However, once again, Republicans are the ones who give the most importance to these elections: 68% of them say that this November is more important, compared to 53% of Democrats.
Biden's Job Approval
In the poll, 45% of registered voters generally approve of the president's performance, while 52% disapprove, meaning no change from September.
But Biden's job rating is on the same page as other presidents whose party lost control of at least one house of Congress in their first midterm election.
In the October 2010 NBC News/WSJ poll, Barack Obama's approval rating was 45% (and Democrats lost 63 House seats).
And in early November 2018, Donald Trump's approval rating was at 46% (when the GOP lost 40 seats in the House).
Looking at key demographics,
Biden's best ratings
were among Black voters (70% approval), urbanites (61%), voters ages 18-34 (54%) and Latinos (51%). %).
But his approval is
substantially lower
among voters in swing states (41%), suburban women (40%) and independents (37%).
A quarter of Latino voters do not want to vote for Republicans or Democrats
Oct. 20, 202200:27
71% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 20% who say it is on the right track.
It's the sixth time in the last seven NBC News polls that
more than 70% think
he's headed in the wrong direction.
"These are really tough numbers for Democrats, and they've had them for months," said McInturff, the Republican pollster.
And about the nation's economy, 20% say it will get better over the next year, 26% say it will stay the same, and 50% say it will get worse.
That 50% who say the economy will get worse in the next 12 months is
the highest number this question has returned since 1994
.
A divided electorate
The NBC News poll
shows how polarized the electorate is
ahead of the election.
81% of Democrats say they believe the GOP agenda poses a threat that, if left unchecked, will destroy America as we know it.
And a nearly identical proportion of Republicans (79%) believe the same about the Democratic Party's agenda.
“It seems that voters are no longer looking for a 'fix for America,'
they want a divorce
,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
What's more: Republican voters who say they prefer their party to control Congress were asked what they would do if it were revealed that a Republican candidate they support is committing a moral failing related to their finances, marriage or personal life.
And 67% said they would still vote for that person.
By contrast, 22% of both parties said they would avoid voting in that case, or vote for a Democrat or third-party candidate.
[Herschel admits he gave his ex-girlfriend a check]
When Democratic voters who prefer a Congress controlled by their party were asked the same question, 63% said they would continue to vote for the Democratic nominee, while 26% said they would not, either by not going to the polls. or by voting for the Republican candidate or whoever is in third place in the race.
Other findings in the survey
9% of registered voters say they have already voted in the midterm elections, 40% say they plan to vote early (either by mail or in-person early voting), and 47% say they will vote at the polls on the day of the election. of the elections.
77% say they trust their vote will be counted sooner, versus 19% who don't.
And 60% of all voters say that the president, Joe Biden, legitimately won in 2020, compared to 33% (and 65% of Republicans) who deny the outcome of the presidential election.
The NBC News
poll
was conducted Oct. 14-18 among 1,000 registered voters, 750 of whom were contacted by cell phone.
It has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
The margin of error among the 797 voters identified as likely voters is plus-minus 3.47 percentage points.