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ANALYSIS | Can Rishi Sunak end the chaos and restore Britain's credibility?

2022-10-25T10:56:38.587Z


Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson's former finance minister, faces the unenviable task of lifting a tottering Britain.


Who is Rishi Sunak?

1:27

(CNN) --

Rishi Sunak is officially Britain's fifth prime minister in six years, after meeting with King Charles III at Buckingham Palace on Tuesday.

Sunak is the first person of colour, the first British-Asian and the first Hindu to lead the UK.

He walks into Downing Street at a time of crisis for his party and the country, after Liz Truss' chaotic 50-day term plunged Britain into even deeper economic turmoil.

Sunak's rise to the highest post in British politics is remarkable.

Just seven weeks ago, Liz Truss soundly defeated him in the Conservative Party leadership race.

Today, after emerging victorious in a quick contest for leadership after Truss exited her brief tenure as prime minister, Sunak arrives in Downing Street after her audience with the king.

The man who served as Boris Johnson's finance minister for two and a half years, only to resign and topple the Johnson government, now faces the unenviable task of lifting a tottering nation after Truss's disastrous tenure.

He will, it is fair to assume, by implementing the economic plan he outlined during his failed bid for leadership earlier this year.

Sunak criticized Truss's plans to cut taxes and finance daily expenses through loans, saying it would wreak economic havoc.

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He was proven right when the Truss government implemented its plans in a “mini-budget”, causing sterling to fall to its lowest level in decades and collapsing bond prices, driving up borrowing costs. and pushing pension funds to the brink of insolvency.

As Sunak also predicted, rising interest rates pushed up mortgage payments and lenders scrambled to pull their products off the market, dashing the hopes of many would-be homeowners almost overnight.

Britain's international reputation had already suffered before Truss took office.

The endless scandals that eventually forced Johnson out of office, plus his repeated threats to break international law over the Brexit deal he personally agreed with the European Union, had not made world leaders well disposed toward the UK. .

That is not to say that the UK is irrelevant on the world stage.

The government's support for Ukraine, for example, has won Britain, and particularly Johnson, praise from other Western leaders.

Former US National Security Adviser John Bolton wrote in Politico on Monday that “Britain has been the main foreign power supporting Ukraine.

Under the triumvirate of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, London was at the forefront of political resolve and leadership.

How does the resignation of Liz Truss in the UK affect the rest of the world?

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The challenges for Rishi Sunak

Sunak's rise can be directly attributed to the chaos of the last few months.

The new prime minister is seen as a safe pair of hands, having won much praise for his handling of the economy during the covid-19 pandemic, helping businesses and citizens with large public spending programs that saved many livelihoods.

His job is now clear: keep calm.

Unfortunately for Sunak, he has inherited a political party that has spent the last few years ripping itself to shreds.

The 2022 Conservative Party is defined by the factionalism and divided loyalties that made it unruly for both Johnson and Truss.

The party is divided along far more lines than left and right, but Sunak will probably have a harder time with the pro-Brexit populist wing of the party who adored Johnson.

"The reality is that the hardliners on the pro-Brexit right probably didn't back anybody because they know there's a Brexit row coming up with the new prime minister," Salma Shah, a former Conservative adviser, told CNN.

“One of Sunak's top priorities will be negotiating the Northern Ireland Protocol (a disputed part of the post-Brexit deal).

If he doesn't start going their way, they can change."

Sunak can ignore or appease these people, but that could mean swallowing a big slice of the humility pie.

“He can try to neutralize the people in that wing of the party who will not forgive him for 'betraying' Boris or his fiscal restraint by appointing a cabinet to placate them.

Potentially that means swallowing his pride and finding something for Boris and Liz Truss to do,” Shah added.

If he doesn't, then Johnson could give Sunak trouble from the back benches, if he was in the mood for revenge.

“Presumably it won't put him in government, which could mean he causes problems in the back banks.

I guess they have to wait for him to give up his seat and go make money," said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University.

Who could succeed Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister?

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The financial bet

Match management is something that could be out of Sunak's hands for the foreseeable future.

However, what is firm in his gift is economic policy and dealing with international partners.

“He is someone with a lot of global experience outside of politics and also dealing with global figures like chancellor.

He is a fluent communicator and knows what he is talking about when it comes to the economy.

So I think there is a very good chance that he will be welcomed by the international community, not only if he can solve the economy but also the politics of the UK,” Bale added.

In an ideal world for Sunak, it would bring economic stability and, with it, political stability.

But veteran observers of British politics will know that the two don't always go hand in hand.

“You will have to implement policies because of the Truss mini-budget that will be politically unpopular with different groups for different reasons,” said Vicky Pryce, a former joint director of the UK Government Economic Service.

That, Pryce said, could mean austerity to balance the books, extraordinary taxes on energy companies and reversing Truss's idea of ​​scrapping caps on bankers' bonuses.

“You have to balance policies that could anger Conservative MPs with policies that could turn the public against them,” Pryce added.

For their part, Conservative MPs and advisers are a mix of relieved, angry, worried and in some cases defeated.

Some think the public will appreciate a little peace and quiet from the political chaos.

Some are beside themselves because the man who took down Johnson got away with it.

Some believe that Sunak is going to be too soft on Brexit.

Some believe that the next elections are already lost.

There are in theory at least two years until the next general election is held.

That is more than enough time for Sunak to stabilize the ship and restore the Conservative Party's dire poll ratings to something more competitive.

And judging by recent weeks, the new prime minister could become just another conservative leader who is forced to spend more time managing his own party's domestic politics than dealing with the enormous problems facing his country.

Rishi Sunak

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2022-10-25

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