David Desgouilles is a columnist at
Marianne
.
He has published
Dérapage
(ed. du Rocher, 2017) and
Their Lost Wars
, (ed. du Rocher, 2019).
LE FIGARO. - Marine Le Pen announced that the RN will vote for the motion of censure of the Nupes, after the use of article 49.3 by the government on the first part of the finance bill for 2023. What will be the political consequences of this decision ?
The biggest consequence is that the RN appears to be the most coherent and clearest opposition party.
By voting all the motions of censure and not just the one it tabled, the RN group stands out from the Nupes which only wishes to vote its own motion, and especially from LR which will not vote any of them to take refuge in the abstention.
Indeed, which are the privileged moments to be classified in the opposition?
These are the refusal to vote for confidence, votes on motions of censure, and finally opposing the budget.
While Elisabeth Borne did not seek a vote of confidence in June, the RN had the opportunity here to tick the other two boxes in a single day.
Moreover, by voting for a motion of censure that he did not table himself,
he is not only a radical opponent but passes on the mistigri of sectarianism à la Nupes which does not return the favor to him.
This decision is therefore a masterstroke for the group led by Marine Le Pen.
Is a dissolution of the Assembly plausible?
There will be no dissolution this time because the government has not been overthrown, due to the abstention of the LR group.
It is the latter, if he tabled a motion of censure voted by both the RN and the Nupes, which could cause the fall of the Borne government and therefore its dissolution.
Emmanuel Macron's threat to this hypothesis is very clear and is mainly aimed at the LR group which could lose feathers in new elections.
Will LR deputies take this risk?
This is not what Nicolas Sarkozy advocates, since he prefers the integration of LR into the parliamentary majority.
The three candidates for the presidency of the party refuse this hypothesis, but they were not in favor of the censorship of the government.
Emmanuel Macron does
New elections would then benefit the duopoly which imposed itself last April, materialized by the vote of this motion of censure: the supporters of Emmanuel Macron versus the integral opponent.
Davis Desgouilles
By announcing that the RN will vote for the Nupes motion, does Le Pen ensure that LR will abstain? The right also risks being taken as the government's ally...
I rather believe that it puts pressure on LR, who therefore appears as an opponent who is not really one.
But it seems to me that Marine Le Pen would have announced this decision even if LR had voted for it and had a chance of overthrowing the government.
Indeed, I do not think that the president of the RN group fears a dissolution, unlike Nupes and LR.
My conviction is that new elections would then benefit the duopoly which imposed itself last April, materialized by the vote of this motion of censure: the supporters of Emmanuel Macron versus the integral opponent.
The current majority would return larger and the RN would further increase the number of its seats, at the expense of Nupes and especially LR.
Does this choice also put the Nupes in the embarrassment which must now justify itself with the RN votes that the deputies have not even requested?
The Nupes could not help but vote its own motion of censure even if the RN came to give it an unexpected score.
This embarrasses her since she kept proclaiming herself the first opposition of the National Assembly, while the RN positions itself more clearly by voting all the motions of censure.
So of course, the deputies on the left had a good time saying that it was their motion that obtained the most votes and that the RN accepted their leadership.
They are not lacking in humour, which sometimes comes under the politeness of despair.
SEE ALSO
- Marine Le Pen announces that the RN group will vote for the motion of censure presented by Nupes
