How far will gas prices fall?

What customers need to know now

Created: 2022-10-26 06:40

By: Matthew Schneider

Stores are full and prices are falling.

But do consumers also benefit from this?

The market is currently moving in two fundamentally different directions.

© Martin Schutt/dpa

The gas prices on the wholesale markets fall drastically.

Does that mean relief for consumers?

An extremely ambiguous picture emerges.

What gas customers need to know now.

Munich – There are extraordinary reports: The gas price has fallen significantly in wholesale, since Thursday by a good 28 percent to around 100 euros per megawatt hour, as figures from the key energy exchange EEX show.

The warm October and the low demand are considered to be the causes.

According to experts, there are several liquid gas tankers off Europe's coasts that do not want to unload their goods at current prices.

But how does that fit in with the current wave of price increases for basic suppliers - and what does this development mean for consumers?

"You have to differentiate between basic service and special tariffs," says Lundquist Neubauer, spokesman for the comparison portal Verivox.

"With the special tariffs, the suppliers often recalculate every day, so the conditions react very sensitively to the wholesale market."

Gas prices: New customer tariffs should not fall further

This can also be read from the statistics: Verivox analyst Neubauer has chosen the cheapest new customer tariffs for a reference district, the figures each represent an average value. “We are currently seeing a price of around 22 cents per kilowatt hour for the cheapest providers , At the beginning of September there were 40,” said Neubauer.

However, the new customer tariffs will not drop much further, believes Detlef Fischer, general manager of the Bavarian Energy and Water Industry Association.

"One mustn't forget: Trading prices are currently still five times the pre-crisis level - many tariffs have not even tripled including taxes and surcharges." This leaves little room for gas suppliers: "If you offer a 12-month contract wants, a few days with lower prices do not make much difference in the calculation.

Gas currently costs around 140 euros per megawatt hour for the whole of 2023.” This corresponds to a pure energy price of 14 cents per kilowatt hour.

This means that the so-called discount suppliers in particular are now among the cheaper ones: "Only those who procure energy at short notice can now react quickly to falling market prices," says Fischer.

Gas prices vary for consumers

These are contradictory signals for consumers: just last week it became known that 40 basic suppliers in Bavaria alone want to increase their tariffs – in November alone.

Experts expect a second wave at the turn of the year.

No contradiction for Fischer: “Especially basic suppliers have to be on the safe side: That’s why they buy their contingents well in advance.

This has kept prices well below the rest of the market for a long time, to the benefit of customers.”

But how will wholesale prices develop?

"A forecast would be dubious: we have too many uncertainties in the market," says Fischer.

For him it is clear: "We will never get back to the known level." He cites the higher procurement costs for liquid gas as the reason.

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What does this mean for consumers?

"Because we don't know what's happening in the wholesale markets, we can't give any recommendations at the moment," says Marion Gaksch, an energy lawyer at the Bavarian consumer center.

“It depends on the personal situation: what contract do I have?

How expensive is my basic service?

What special tariffs are there on the market?” It is always important to compare offers – and to ask: “You can always ask your basic supplier whether they have a more attractive special tariff, many are accommodating there.” Also, many people are currently in of replacement care: "Anyone who ends up in expensive replacement care has the right to switch to cheaper basic care every day." The only exception:

"If the old supplier no longer supplies due to a terminated network usage or balancing group contract." You can ask the network operator whether this is the case.

Who that is is on the last bill.