Even if they lose: "Bolsonaro's ideology will remain in Brazil"
Created: 10/27/2022, 2:07 p.m
By: Nail Akkoyun
Even in Ireland, President Bolsonaro triggered violent reactions shortly before the runoff election in Brazil.
© IMAGO/Natalia Campos
Brazil is at a crossroads.
Before the October 30 election, a South America expert speaks about the situation in the country.
Mainz/Brasilia - In Brazil, the people will elect a new president on Sunday (October 30) - or an old one: either the right-wing extremist head of state Jair Bolsonaro remains in office, or the left-wing ex-president Lula da Silva wins the race.
Accordingly, the political climate in the largest South American country is extremely divided.
Fabio Best is a South America expert at the Institute for Political Science at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz.
In an interview with
FR.de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA
, he explains, among other things, the differences in the policies of the two candidates and the chance of a peaceful change of power.
Election in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro has "every reason to cling to power"
Fabio Best is an expert on Latin and South America at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz.
© Fabio Best
The first round of voting was much tighter than previously forecast,
and the undecided voters in particular are likely to
tip the scales in the upcoming run-off election.
Mr. Best, who will win the race - Jair Bolsonaro or Lula da Silva?
That is a difficult question.
If you follow the current polls, then they point to a narrow victory for Lula.
However, we have already seen in the first round of voting how difficult it is for the opinion research institutes to draw a reliable picture of opinion in the current environment.
Whoever triumphs on Sunday is likely to depend primarily on two factors: first, which candidate can win over the (few) undecided voters and, second, Lula's ability to mobilize moderate voters.
The more voters stay at home on Sunday, the more likely Bolsonaro is to win.
So it remains exciting.
Who could pick up the undecided electorate more in the past few weeks - and with what?
Shortly after the first ballot, it looked as if Jair Bolsonaro could win over the majority of undecided voters.
Currently, however, the tide seems to have turned again.
The fact that both third-placed Simone Tebet and fourth-placed Ciro Gomes spoke out in favor of Lula could have been the decisive factor here.
There were attempts at fraud and violence in the first round of voting.
How would Bolsonaro's supporters react to an election defeat?
In the past US presidential election, we saw the dramatic effects that a failure by the loser to admit defeat can have.
In the presidential elections in Chile and Colombia, which also took place in a heated atmosphere, there were no such riots, although the early admission of defeat by the election losers may have been the decisive factor.
The reaction of Bolsonaro's supporters to a possible defeat in the runoff election in Brazil is likely to depend not least on Bolsonaro himself.
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Bolsonaro has made contradictory statements about a possible election defeat in the past.
Do you think he would accept defeat himself?
It would be desirable for the Brazilian people and democracy.
I can imagine that the chances of a peaceful transfer of power could have increased after the first ballot, despite the close outcome.
His party won most of the seats in parliament and many of the governors elected in the first ballot came from his camp.
Bolsonaro's ideology will remain with Brazil even in the event of a defeat.
On the other hand, Bolsonaro would have every reason to cling to power: various criminal proceedings are pending against the president, from which re-election would protect him.
As with Donald Trump, whether Bolsonaro will accept a possible election defeat will also depend on political pressure.
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Let's assume that Lula is elected president.
How would his leftist politics affect Europe?
Both Lula and Bolsonaro emphasize in their election manifestos that they want to improve Brazil's image in the world, which has suffered greatly in recent years.
While Bolsonaro is in favor of an attractive investment policy, Lula wants to build on the foreign policy of his two previous terms and continue to pursue the multilateral political style that Brazil has traditionally represented.
During the election campaign, Lula campaigned, among other things, for reviving the stalled free trade agreement with the EU and for wanting to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
Overall, however, foreign policy plays only a subordinate role in the election campaigns of both candidates.
Lula has also made climate protection a key voting issue.
Is it likely that he will consistently follow through on that campaign promise if he wins?
In foreign policy, Lula promotes himself with consistent climate protection and the protection of the rainforest and indigenous reserves, but domestically he has made numerous election promises to environmentalists and indigenous representatives as well as to agribusiness.
It remains to be seen how well he will be able to implement the often contradictory demands of these groups in the event of an election victory.
Should Bolsonaro win, on the other hand, the BRICS alliance could move closer together in the future.
What foreign policy does the West have to face if Bolsonaro stays in office?
I can not agree with that.
If at all, the BRICS are a loose association of different countries with sometimes very different interests.
In addition, Bolsonaro's presidency was marked by major disagreements with the largest trading partner, China.
I see Bolsonaro more in an alliance with other anti-democrats and populists, who see themselves increasingly isolated in the United States as a result of Trump's vote-down.
However, Bolsonaro's election program in foreign policy is significantly less ideological than in 2018. This could be an attempt to break out of increasing international isolation.
Nail Akkoyun conducted the interview.