By Adam EdelmanNBC
News
Nearly six in 10 Republican candidates for state congresses in five key states deny the results of the 2020 election, according to an analysis by a think tank that tracks races.
Of those 450 Republican candidates in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota, including those running for re-election and those seeking a first term,
58% of them have echoed former President Donald Trump's lies that he they stole the 2020 election
, according to research shared exclusively with our sister network NBC News by The States Project, a left-leaning group that tracked state legislative races in key states.
Experts warn that if enough of these election-denying candidates are elected, Republican majorities in local congresses in these hinge states could have the power to rewrite election laws and affect future elections, even in 2024. when Trump could run again.
The then president, Donald Trump, during the rally prior to the assault on the Capitol in Washington DC, on January 6, 2021. Evan Vucci / AP
“When election deniers are in control, they will do anything they can to undermine free and fair elections,” said Daniel Squadron, executive director of The States Project.
“We know that the rules for elections and determining winners are set through the legislative process, so what these people do would have a huge impact” on “everything from who can register and who can vote to how results count,” added Squadron.
extreme opinions
Those five states (and many others) also have Republican candidates in the gubernatorial and secretary of state races who have disputed the election results.
The positions to which they aspire have the power to supervise, administer and certify elections.
If election deniers in those races win, their ability to influence future elections could be strengthened by having like-minded others in state houses to remake certain election laws.
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"People who hold such extreme views about the last election could push for changes to the voting process that would make it harder for eligible voters to vote and much harder to run elections," said election expert Rick Pildes, a professor at the New York University School of Law.
Pildes pointed to several proposals in states like Arizona and Nevada that would mandate hand-counting ballots and reduce absentee and mail-in voting.
Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, suggested last weekend that she would support efforts to reduce early voting if she were elected.
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As of Jan. 1, 2021, lawmakers in 21 states have passed at least 42 laws that include voting restrictions, according to the nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law.
Twenty-four bills that interfere with election administration have already become law in 17 states by 2022, and hundreds more proposals have been filed, according to the nonpartisan United States Democracy Center.
Many of the harsher proposals could allow state lawmakers to more easily override election results, such as bills in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan that would give lawmakers partial or full control over election results.
Others would allow the partisan majority in a state legislature to conduct election audits or have more power to present to their own constituents (although experts like Pildes have suggested such proposals could ultimately be deemed unconstitutional).
The potential impact state legislatures could have on future elections could expand further, depending on how the Supreme Court rules a major election-related case next year.
The case, Moore v.
Harper, revolves primarily around Republicans seeking to limit the power of state courts to review gerrymandering of electoral district maps and restrictions on voting.
But if the justices adopt a conservative legal theory in their ruling, known as the independent state legislature theory, it could have the effect of giving state legislatures the exclusive power to set electoral rules and regulations in their states.
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Trump supporters defended that position during disputes over the 2020 presidential election, saying state courts had no authority to change the rules for casting mail-in ballots.
Those arguments did not prevail, but at least four members of the Supreme Court thought they made some sense.
The court will hear arguments in that case in December.
How key battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan conduct their future elections could very well determine the winner of future presidential races.
“State legislatures have a lot of discretion within the rules that federal law imposes on how to regulate the electoral process, and there are many reasons, based on [what] some of the candidates in these states have said, to be concerned about how it is applied. that discretion,” said Pildes.
“These are crucial states for presidential elections, where very narrow margins determine the winners,” added Squadron.
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In its analysis, The States Project, a Democratic group that focuses on winning state elections, defined an election denier as a candidate who questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election. In making its determinations, the group reviewed comments audiences, social media posts, and proposals from each Republican candidate for state legislatures in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.
The group's analysis found that in Arizona 87% of all Republican candidates in those legislative races were election deniers.
They include state Sen. Wendy Rogers and state Rep. Jake Hoffman, who have called for the 2020 election results in their state not to be certified, and state Senate candidate Justine Wadsack, who has expressed support for the theories. QAnon-powered conspiracy stories.
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Hoffman was also among a handful of so-called fake voters in the state, who signed documents stating that they were the legitimate voters of their state and that Trump, not Joe Biden, had won their state.
In both Pennsylvania and Michigan, 62% of all Republican candidates for state legislatures denied the election results, according to the organization.
That included at least eight Michigan State Senate candidates or incumbents who had signed various letters or briefs seeking to overturn the state's 2020 results or delay certification of the results.
In Minnesota, 42% of all Republican candidates in state legislative races denied the election, while in Nevada, 31% did.
That included several incumbents and candidates in Minnesota who had questioned the results of the 2020 election.
“We have good reason to be concerned about the integrity of the [election] process at all levels, and a primary concern among those concerns is what state legislatures might do,” Pildes said.