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Netanyahu is trying to bring back Likud voters who abandoned him, Michaeli in an anti-Orthodox campaign: what changed between the election rounds | Israel today

2022-10-29T20:52:33.684Z


The day after tomorrow we will go to the polls for the fifth time in 3 and a half years • The parties have hardly changed, the campaigns - in fact


Likud

The way: Netanyahu is moderate

The goal: to bring back Likud voters who deserted

The Likud campaign this time stood on two central legs.

The first is the attempt to encourage voters who did not vote last time.

In this context, Likud tried to perfect what they tried to do last time, but with slightly different methods.

Instead of large events and conferences, to which the main Likud activists came anyway, the party headquarters decided to take the chairman of the movement Benjamin Netanyahu to smaller events in the field, in places where "golden polling stations" were located, i.e. Likud strongholds where low voter turnouts were recorded. The second leg of the campaign dealt In an attempt to bring in the moderate right-wing people, those who abandoned the Likud following the investigations and trial of Netanyahu, who do not like his style, of Likud senior officials and their supporters the "bibists". In this context, an abysmal difference between the Likud campaign in the previous election rounds and the current election campaign is evident.

Netanyahu.

Courting the ultra-Orthodox, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Netanyahu sounds more moderate this time, attacks his opponents much less, is careful about the respect of the judicial system and makes sure to "eliminate" senior Likud officials who are considered more belligerent and those who speak in blunt language.

During the bulk of the campaign, Netanyahu avoided even announcing that he would form a "full right-wing government".

There is a future

The way: ignore the block

The goal: the largest party or at least close to Likud

The biggest change that happened to any political party in these elections probably happened to the Yesh Atid party.

In the previous elections, party chairman Yair Lapid realized that the only chance to oust Binyamin Netanyahu from power would be through a victory for the left-wing bloc, with the help of the right-wing parties that oppose Netanyahu: Yamina led by Naftali Bennett and New Hope led by Gideon Sa'ar. Lapid knew that he had to maintain the bloc's integrity and ensure that he One of the parties in it will not fall below the blocking percentage, which will guarantee that Netanyahu will obtain 61 mandates and form a government. Until the last row, Lapid avoided calls to support him and was careful not to develop a head-to-head battle with Netanyahu, which could have ended one of the bloc's parties, some of which were unstable And scratched the blocking percentage from the top from the very first moment.

Yair Lapid, photo: Dodo Vaaknin

Lapid's strategy this time is completely opposite.

Lapid does not consider the Gush and works to grow and cling as much as possible to the Likud's numbers.

Lapid understands that he will not be able to form a government this time, and therefore prefers to be the leader of the largest party, or as the leader of the opposition, or at most as the leader of the transitional government, if there are any.

Religious Zionism

The way: two separate campaigns

The goal: to take advantage of Ben Gvir's popularity

The religious Zionist party ran in a similar format in the previous elections, and succeeded, with considerable help from Netanyahu, in turning from one that might not pass the threshold to a party that might reach a double-digit number of mandates.

popular.

Itamar Ben Gvir, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

The big difference now is that the party not only stands on its own and does not need assistance to pass the blocking percentage.

It is believed that the popular figure of Itamar Ben Gabir is behind the change.

Although he already appeared on the list last time, it was before he was elected to the Knesset and gained his current popularity after a year and a half of activity and exposure in the Knesset.

Ben Gvir is considered a popular figure today, and among young people he even rose to the level of Netanyahu's popularity, no less.

According to the "Israel Hayom" and "Mindpool" survey, the latest for the current election cycle, it seems that among the 18- to 30-year-olds, Netanyahu and Ben Gvir receive exactly the same level of sympathy.

The parties also decided that this time Smotrich and Ben Gvir will run two separate campaigns, with each trying to bring in their own audience.

The state camp

The way: to silence left positions

The target: right-wingers who don't want to vote for Netanyahu or Ben Gvir

The big difference between the previous party campaign and the current one is mainly personal.

The list was renewed with the addition of Gideon Sa'ar and later with the addition of Gadi Eisenkot, who preferred to join the party of his former commander Benny Gantz rather than the party of Yair Lapid.

Even the "blue and white" brand was given up by the defense minister for him.

Eisenkot with Gantz and Saar at the launch of the "State Camp", photo: Yossi Zeliger

For Gideon Sa'ar it was the perfect exit.

The alliance with Beni Gantz, his and some of his party members such as Ze'ev Elkin and Yifat Shasha Biton, secured his seat in the next Knesset, at the expense of Gantz's party representatives.

Later, the former Chief of Staff Eisenkot also joined the list, but according to all polls, the move did not contribute to the party.

The innovation in the current campaign is that Gantz also recognized that there are right-wing people who are not interested in voting for Likud or one of the right-wing bloc parties, and adapted his messages to this public.

He highlighted the troops of Trooper and Matan Kahane, to attract the members of the religious-nationalist public, and made sure that no statements of a left-wing nature were expressed, such as support for the two-state plan and more.

The big challenge of the campaign in this context was to dim the well-known positions of Eisenkot, a distinct leftist, which might alienate the aforementioned voters to the extent that he would repeat his past statements in political contexts.

the "Avoda" party

The way: an anti-Orthodox campaign

The goal: to stand out and be careful of drinking voices

Merav Michaeli headed the Labor Party in the previous round of elections as well, but there are quite a few changes she made in the main messages of the campaign today compared to the previous one.

Michaeli refused to unite with Zehava Galon and Meretz, even though Meretz wanted this union, Yair Lapid pressed for it to be implemented, and even some senior members of the Labor Party supported him.

Michaeli insisted from the first moment that the Labor Party would fight alone and refused all calls and offers to unite with Meretz.

This despite the fact that the danger of not passing the blocking percentage hovered and still hovers over both parties.

Anti-Orthodox campaign.

Minister of Transportation Merav Michaeli, photo: Gideon Markovich

In order to stand out from the rest, this time Michaeli decided to go on an anti-Orthodox campaign and made headlines every week in this area, among other things when she pledged to run public transportation in general and the light rail in Gush Dan and more on Saturdays.

These messages did not characterize Michaeli in the past, nor the Labor Party for generations, whose leaders sat with the ultra-orthodox factions in the same coalitions and the issues of religion and the state were not disputed between the parties most of the time, this is considered an unusual event in the history of the Labor Party.

Torah Judaism

The way: the same campaign as before

The goal: to preserve the number of voters and prevent spillover to Ben Gabir

The voters of the ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party see themselves as belonging to the right-wing bloc led by Binyamin Netanyahu.

However, among the older audience of Degel Torah, the Lithuanian faction, there is no unanimity regarding the need to go with Netanyahu to the end, neither for another election campaign nor for the opposition.

Moshe Gafni, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Before the Knesset was dissolved, Gafni persistently tried to establish a government headed by Benny Gantz, together with the Likud, but without success.

The party's campaign this time is very similar to its predecessors.

Torah Judaism does not try to appeal to a new audience, but rather to try to preserve the old - Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox, Avrachs in Kollelim and Chorim in Yeshivas.

The conservative and relatively older line of the party prevents an effective campaign in the modern ultra-Orthodox and working ultra-Orthodox sectors as well as the traditional non-Orthodox public.

Since the beginning of the campaign, Torah Judaism has been trying to deal with the shift in support of the young ultra-Orthodox for the candidacy of Itamar Ben Gabir, who has become a popular figure among the youth of the sector.

Israel is our Home

The way: strongly attack the ultra-orthodox

The goal: to pass the blocking percentage

Avigdor Lieberman was the closest partner of the ultra-Orthodox representatives of the Knesset and was a personal friend of Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri, until he came to the conclusion that his way to pass the percentage of obstruction, despite breaking away from the right-wing camp due to his burning hatred of Binyamin Netanyahu, was through fueling hatred and incitement against the sector the orthodox

Finance Minister Lieberman at the "Israel Hayom" election conference, photo: Gideon Markovitch

What started already in the second round of elections and intensified towards the third and fourth rounds, continues even now when Lieberman and his party leaders make sure to release from time to time an extreme and scandalous statement against the ultra-Orthodox in order to remain in the minds of their voters.

Although his power was eroding, Lieberman was unable to reinvent himself.

In the current campaign, he is also trying to present himself as a successful finance minister.

Shas

The way: Rabbis Zatzel Ovadia Yosef and Shalom Cohen

The goal: to show unreserved loyalty and support for Netanyahu

In fact, there is no big change between the Shas campaign this time and the previous rounds. Shas voters' admiration for Netanyahu forces its leaders to express unqualified support for the Likud leader, and to emphasize the degree of loyalty of party chairman Aryeh Deri to the right-wing leader Netanyahu.

Shas chairman Aryeh Deri, photo: Yonatan Zindel - Flash90

Even in the previous rounds of elections, the image of the party's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, peace be upon him, was widely used to try and arouse as much emotion as possible among both the ultra-Orthodox Shas voters and the traditional Shas voters who adored the rabbi.

This time, alongside Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the president of the Council of Torah Sages who succeeded him, Rabbi Hacham Shalom Cohen, peace be upon him, stars in the campaign, who, although less well-known and popular than his predecessor, was well-known enough among Sephardic Torah scholars for his character to convince them to come to the polls.

While in the previous elections there was unanimity and unity between the two ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and Torah Judaism, this time it seems that there is real tension between the parties and the coordination between the two is much less than before, the reason being loyalty to Netanyahu.

March

The way: Gewald campaign

The goal: the Horowitz era is over, the return of Meretz to his good days

The big difference between the party's campaign in the previous elections and the current one, is the personnel change in the leadership of the party and the replacement of Nitzan Horowitz with Zehava Galon.

Galon did not initiate her return, it was the senior party officials who approached her and convinced her to return after she retired, following Horowitz's announcement that he would not run for party leadership again.

Zehava Galon at the "Israel Hayom" conference,

The message that Galon has been trying to convey since her election is that her return actually brings Meretz back to his good days, this following an assessment that Horowitz is not 100 percent connected to the DNA of the party's voters and the members of the party apparatus.

Until last week, Galon was convinced that she would not be forced to repeat the Gewald campaign she is associated with, when she called, the last time she chaired the party, to save Meretz from being deleted below the threshold.

However, the drinking of Yair Lapid's votes, which had already begun, caused her to change her plans, and Galon finds herself standing once again and convincing her activists not to abandon Meretz in her difficult times.

In the coming days, this call may intensify and be heard at a much higher volume, when Meretz is down to 4 mandates in some of the polls and is approaching by giant steps to below the blocking percentage.

The Arab parties

The way: fights, divisions and boycotts

The goal: to increase the voting rate in the sector

The big difference between then and now is that there is no longer a common list.

The enmity between the parties is so great that even surplus agreements did not agree to sign.

Each of the former joint parties came to these elections with a different message.

Ra'am continued Mansor Abbas's line of partnership with the Jewish government in Israel. Hadash-Ta'al resolutely attacks Ra'am's cooperation with the coalition, but does not say decisive things about the possibility that it itself would cooperate in a similar way.

On the other hand, Balad completely denies any partnership with the government and strongly attacks such a possibility.

Tibi and Odah, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

All the parties are afraid of low voting percentages in the Arab sector, but it seems that nothing can be done to increase them.

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Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2022-10-29

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