The five main economies of Latin America will be governed for the first time by the left

Francia Márquez with Lula da Silva and Gabriel Boric with Gustavo Petro.

With the victory this Sunday of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, who will be president for the third time, the Latin American left straightens its course, extends its long cycle of electoral victories and overcomes the stumble caused by the rejection of the new Constitution in the plebiscite Chilean.

With the coming to power of Lula, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia, all in 2022, the five main economies of the region, which complete Mexico and Argentina, remain for the first time in the hands of progressive forces.

It was precisely the leaders of the other four largest economies in the region who were the first to congratulate Lula on his victory.

With a concise "Viva Lula" Petro celebrated the advantage in the scrutiny of the next Brazilian president;

López Obrador and Boric followed and Fernández finished, from Argentina.

They were joined, almost in unison, by all the progressive leaders or those who boast of it in Latin America.

Brazil is back, and Lula becomes the dean of the leftist bloc.

The leader of the Workers' Party has polished off the international recognition he obtained during his two terms, between 2003 and 2010, and is now proposing a sort of reinsertion of Brazil in the world, after the four years of far-right Jair Bolsonaro, by that

has described as the "star pupil" of Donald Trump.

The presidential elections in Brazil had a geopolitical dimension that was especially transcendental for the region.

In addition to the readings about the meaning of a global struggle between the extreme right, embodied in this case by Bolsonaro, and the left of Lula da Silva, the result has, in practice, a great impact on regional balances.

Everything happens, moreover, at a decisive moment for the strengthening of progressive governments in Latin America.

After the victories of Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia, the return to power of the founder of the Workers' Party will not only strengthen that bloc, but is also on the way to reconfiguring the leadership map.

Since 2018, due to population, economic weight and capacity for dialogue with the United States, that role corresponds to the president of Mexico.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is about to enter the final stretch of his term, received Lula last March, emphasizing the affinities with the Brazilian leader.

"The fight for equality and justice unites us," he said then.

After learning of the victory of the PT candidate, the Mexican president made his joy clear: “Lula won, blessed people of Brazil.

There will be equality and humanism,” he said in a tweet.

Lula won, blessed people of Brazil.

There will be equality and humanism.

pic.twitter.com/2nCg5yo5UD

– Andrés Manuel (@lopezobrador_) October 30, 2022

These coincidences have accelerated international relations with Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and, with many more nuances, Peru.

This Sunday, Lula's coalition, which reached the second round with a 2.5-point lead, not only defeated Bolsonaro, but also took the helm of a regional alliance that will have no precedent.

The country ended the first Lula era as an emerging power, before the political and economic crisis that led to the

of his successor, Dilma Roussef, in 2016. Later, corruption scandals weighed down the PT and Lula spent 580 days in prison for some convictions today annulled, but at the time Barack Obama considered him "the most popular politician on earth", he headed the lists of most influential leaders, promoted the BRICS bloc -Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa-, the The country was awarded the venue for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, and a movie was even made about his life,

(Lula, the son of Brazil).

The weight of Brazil is undeniable.

It is a country of continental dimensions, with more than 200 million inhabitants, which will grow this year at 2.8%, according to the IMF.

“What are the five largest economies in Latin America?” ex-diplomat Julio César Gomes Dos Santos asks trickily over the phone to underline that after Brazil and Mexico, the State of São Paulo – with 46 million inhabitants – would be itself the third largest economy in the region, above Argentina, Colombia and Chile.

"Brazil today is a pariah of the international community," laments Gomes Dos Santos, who was an ambassador in the Cardoso and Lula governments and later dedicated himself to academia in Colombia.

Since the dictatorship, which ended in 1985, Brazil has drawn up an independent, responsible and pragmatic foreign policy, very professional, which continued with all the presidents until Bolsonaro broke that tradition by aligning himself with the Trump White House, explains the expert.

What would a new foreign policy with Lula look like?

“It is enough to take a look at its two governments, when Brazil projected itself abroad like at no other time in its history”, he points out.

It would be, according to this analysis, a return to the Brazilian diplomatic tradition.

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Elections in Brazil 2022, second round, live

Circumstances are different, globally and regionally, and that conditions foreign policy, clarifies political scientist Sergio Fausto, director of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation.

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[raw materials],” he recalls.

However, he agrees that the central guidelines are the same as those of the two previous terms, with an obvious influence from Celso Amorim, foreign minister in those years and a close campaign adviser.

“Neither should we exaggerate the political affinities between different countries;

there are geographic locations that make important differences,” he warns.

Mexico shares countless bilateral issues with the United States and Colombia is a close partner of Washington in the region, to mention two examples.

Despite these nuances, "there is a certain convergence, especially in South America, in relation to the importance of relaunching Unasur in some way, but without the ideological overtones it had at that time, when Chavismo was very strong."

affinities

Amorim himself assured this week in a meeting with correspondents in São Paulo that environmental issues will be a "central element in foreign policy, because the survival of the planet depends on the climate issue."

He was accompanied by the former Environment Minister Marina Silva, a symbol of the conservation of the Amazon, badly treated under Bolsonaro.

Lula will have "zero tolerance" with deforestation, will promote more ambitious climate goals and will strengthen international cooperation to protect the lungs of the world, the ecologist stressed.

Brazil can find there important affinities with other countries in the region.

The new left headed by Petro —and to a lesser extent by Boric— arrives with a very marked environmental agenda and postulates an economic model that gives priority to clean energy.

Fausto considers it symptomatic that despite all the wounds of the past, Marina Silva, who left the PT years ago, has risked it for Lula's campaign.

“It is a clear sign that the environmental issue will have a new centrality in the future Lula government”, he points out.

“We are going to build a sustainable Brazil,” Lula promises in a letter to the “Brazil of tomorrow” that his campaign released this week, in which he intends to overcome the isolation he attributes to Bolsonaro.

"We will return to a sovereign, proud and active foreign policy, promoting democratic dialogue and respecting the self-determination of peoples."

Given that the integration with Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay in Mercosur seems irreversible –despite the fact that Bolsonaro tried to torpedo the bloc–, the greatest harmony that can be seen is with the Colombia of Petro, another Amazonian country.

Among the current Latin American leaders, Gomes Dos Santos points out, "the only one who has a vast eight-year government experience in a country like Brazil, with incredible industrialization, unbeatable agriculture and a very strong business community, and lived with all this, It was Lula."

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