Most of the politicians and commentators are trying to sell us that today's elections are especially fateful.
But the truth is that, with the exception of one person - Binyamin Netanyahu, no fateful decision is expected today, as a result of the results shown in the polls.
First, there is no possibility of the real horror scenario in the form of establishing a coalition that would be able to create an Oslo-style disaster or the disengagement.
Yair Lapid and his satellites falsify a feeling according to which they are part of an alternative left-wing government, which only depends on him getting another mandate or two.
Likud Chairman Netanyahu at an election conference in Ma'ale Adumim // Photo: Yoni Rickner
The Netanyahu camp also wields this possibility as a scarecrow in front of right-wing voters.
This is an empty threat, because according to the polls - the most realistic scenario for "Yesh Atid" is the possibility of a coalition with the terrorists from the joint.
But the chance that Gideon Sa'ar and Matan Kahane will agree to form a government with Aida Toma-Sleiman and Ayman Odeh does not exist, and therefore the rosiest scenario for Lapid is nothing more than a blocking bloc and another round of elections.
Gantz and Saar with Eisenkot, photo: Yossi Zeliger
Benny Gantz fantasizes about an alliance with the ultra-orthodox, when they will despair of the blocking bloc of the left, which will continue to block their budgets.
Gantz, apparently, was delusional about this possibility, but the day he succeeds in forming a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox, the cards will be dealt in Likud as well, Netanyahu will step down and establish a national unity government.
Not a nightmare.
Netanyahu and his partners are striving for victory by a margin of one or two votes.
Most recent polls did not anticipate such a possibility, but even if it materializes, it will be a short-lived coalition, which will have great difficulty functioning.
A coalition that will be subject to the whims of every single Knesset member, from Avi Maoz representative Noam to Dodi Amsalem, not to mention the ultra-Orthodox Knesset members Smotrich and Ben Gvir themselves.
Religious Zionist Chairman Bezalel Smotrich at the Israel Hayom conference, photo: Yossi Zeliger
Throughout his political life, Netanyahu avoided establishing a "full right" government, even when he had balanced and responsible partners, such as Naftali Bennett or Yaakov Katz (Katsela).
Such a coalition is Bibi's biggest nightmare, which he defected to only because of the theoretical possibility that it would allow him to stop the trial.
Netanyahu's chances of escaping justice are slim, but for him this is really a fatal possibility.
Even responsible partners like Bennett were not Netanyahu's first option, photo: Dodi Vaaknin/archive
The two options that stand out - a blocking bloc and sixth elections or a super narrow Netanyahu government - are bad for the country and society, but the chances of them causing irreversible damage to the Zionist project are low.
the only chance
The only irreversible damage that is taking place today is the continuation of the Palestinian takeover of Area C in the West Bank, a phenomenon that began with Netanyahu and worsened with Gantz. A truly stable and good right-wing coalition can only be established after the healing process of the right, which will only begin to show skin and tendons the day after Binyamin Netanyahu retires. .
In the meantime, those who want to promote a responsible right-wing coalition can cast only one ballot - that of Ayelet Shaked.
Only if the fate of the right-wing coalition depends on it, will there be a chance of having a state government, with a high survival forecast.
were we wrong
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