The all-too-routine election can end in a whirlwind roller coaster ride

Starting tomorrow evening, with the closing of the polls, the political system is moving into a new phase - where anything is possible.

Past experience shows that this is only the starting point of another political floundering, one never knows how it will end.

A look at the scenarios of the day after

His dew

10/31/2022

Monday, October 31, 2022, 5:30 p.m. Updated: 7:46 p.m.

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Prime Minister Yair Lapid in an interview with Tal Shalu in his office.

30.10.22 (Stills: Reuven Castro, video: Yotam Ronen, Niv Aaronson. Technical director: Michael Braham)

The fifth election campaign was long, sleepy and dreary than all its predecessors.

The circumstances were extenuating circumstances: with the unbearable ease of the political floundering Israel has been in for nearly four years, everything sounds familiar and feels like a rerun: from Benjamin Netanyahu's stirrings in his knit partners, to the failed unification attempts in the left-wing parties, to the cries of the Goveld of the last line in the campaign.

And of course, the question of the questions - yes or no Bibi.

Even the frozen survey map, which for four months already heralds the return of the Bingushi tie, reinforces the feeling of discouraging repetition, that what was will be what will be.

so that's it.

no

Starting tomorrow evening, with the closing of the polls, the political system is moving into a new phase - where anything is possible.

Even the seemingly impossible to imagine.

For proof, recent history: on the night of the first elections, in April 2019, Netanyahu's victory seemed assured.

No one expected that Avigdor Lieberman would change sides and deny him the majority, nor that Netanyahu would dissolve the Knesset only a month and a half later, to prevent Blue and White from getting the mandate.

We will skip two years ahead, to the night of the last elections, in March 2021;

When only a few dared to imagine a scenario where Naftali Bennett overthrows Netanyahu and becomes prime minister of the center-left government.

Even tomorrow evening, on the night of the fifth election, with the publication of the sample results, it would be worthwhile to take a long breath before the celebrations and tears of the winners and losers.

Past experience shows that this is only the starting point of a crazy roller coaster, you never know how it will end.

A draw will also be a victory for him.

Prime Minister Lapid (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Netanyahu has 61

The worlds of the content of the possible scenarios are divided as usual and as usual into two, according to the yes or no Bibi question and the number 61. In the last four elections, Netanyahu failed to achieve the necessary majority to establish a narrow and loyal ultra-Orthodox government, which would give him political immunity and support all his wishes and legal needs;

The latest polls predict that this time, with a tie of 60:60, he is closer than ever to deciding and achieving the ultimate goal, and with partners like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gabir, who are even more enthusiastic than him to fight the legal junta.

Netanyahu tried to shrug off their initiatives to repeal the crime of fraud and breach of trust and enact a French law, as well as to avoid Ben Gabir's demand to be the minister of internal security, but the day after the elections, if he does reach 61, they will turn from campaign gimmicks into reality of demands in the coalition negotiations.

In a narrow right-wing government, Netanyahu will be a prisoner and shackled by the hands of each of his partners, not to mention the headache he will have in dividing the portfolios between senior Likud officials who want to return to the corridors of power.

Another spectacular political scenario will occur if, by chance, against all odds and predictions, Ayelet Shaked passes the percentage of blocking with the Jewish Home.

Shaked stated in advance that she would complete Netanyahu's 61st mandate, which would force him and his family to give up their grudge and historical hostility and recognize it as the kingdom of kings.

Hope to win legal immunity after the elections.

Netanyahu (photo: official website, Basheva, Channel 7)

Historically, Netanyahu has always preferred to add moderates from the center-left fig leaves to the right-wing governments he established, to ward off criticism and international pressure.

Therefore, this time too, Ben Gvir raised the suspicion that after the elections he would prefer to form a unity government with Benny Gantz and give up his presence around the government table.

However, to the extent that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir end up bigger and stronger than the state camp, the imagined or planned outcry will not be mathematically or politically possible: Netanyahu will not be able to afford any of them to remain as an outside right-wing opposition.

Not to mention Gantz, who rejects any scenario of a comeback for Netanyahu in no uncertain terms.

Netanyahu does not have 61

For the Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, even the result of a draw against Netanyahu is actually a victory, since his first goal is to obtain a blocking bloc that will prevent him from returning to power.

But even if he has a majority, the path of the bloc opposing Netanyahu to forming a government is full of bumps and obstacles.

Lapid will try to restore the change government of the previous elections, and establish a government with a similar composition, but according to the latest numbers in the polls, he will not be able to do so without the votes of New-Tal.

Although he pledged during the election campaign that he would not form a government with Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi, he did not rule out the possibility of a one-time support or a safety net.

But Lapid's main obstacle is another: the alternative plans of the chairman of the state camp, Benny Gantz, to form a government under his leadership.

Although Gantz will not be able to politically afford to oppose the coalition of the center-left bloc, he has set a condition in advance that will make this impossible in the current composition, in his statement that he will not agree to a government with a new channel or a majority that relies at all on the Arab Hakims.

In the state camp's dream scenario, after Netanyahu and Lapid both fail in the task of forming the government, Gantz will appear as the third candidate, with the mandate automatically going to the Knesset for 21 days before the sixth election.

So, according to the plan, they will manage to break up Netanyahu's bloc and add the ultra-Orthodox to the Gantz-led government with the opposite bloc.

The ultra-Orthodox politicians, for their part, made sure during the election campaign to vehemently deny Gantz's scenarios as imaginary delusions, certainly when they include cooperation with the chairman of Israel Beyten, Avigdor Lieberman. In another possible scenario, if Netanyahu is not 61, the ultra-Orthodox will still try to bring Gantz to the side theirs, and form a unity government with the Likud again - this time with Gantz at the helm, or force Netanyahu to put another candidate at the head of the Likud with whom Gantz will agree to sit.

may become the third largest party.

Ben Gabir and Smotrich (photo: Flash 90, official website)

In the scenario of a perfect tie, as in the last polls, 60:60, it is almost certain that the next three months will be spent on the two blocs hunting defectors.

Lieberman, again promised in recent days that if Netanyahu does not succeed in his mission, there will be a "big explosion" of the Likudniks that will create a new and economic political situation.

Those who search the archives will discover the same promises in the second, third, and fourth rounds of the elections.

Fifth time ice cream?

Everything is open and possible, even Friday elections are a reasonable and realistic scenario, as learned from tonight's experience.

Everything depends first of all on the results of the truth.

In such a close election that depends on the fate of the small parties - the world of scenarios can change depending on each and every vote.

And especially, with any Arab voice.

The percentage of votes in the Arab sector is the factor that will decide which of the worlds is possible in the first place: if it exceeds the low expectations, and three Arab parties enter the Knesset, Netanyahu's path to the 61st mandate will be completely blocked;

If it remains as low as in the previous elections, there is a danger that only one party will pass the threshold, which will immediately give the right wing a victory.

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• Benjamin Netanyahu

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