Pierre Rigoulot, a specialist in communist regimes, is director of the Institute of Social History (founded by Boris Souvarine in 1935) and editor-in-chief of the quarterly
Histoire & Liberté.
He is the author of numerous acclaimed books, including
"
To put an end to North Korea
"
(Buchet-Chastel 2018) and
"
Cold War hot spots
"
(Archipelago 2019).
FIGAROVOX. - On November 2, a North Korean missile fell near South Korean territorial waters. Was Pyongyang targeting its southern neighbor?
Pierre Rigoulot. -
A shooting error is always possible and it is something that we can fear with North Korea: a "slip", a South Korean response then the escalation we do not know how far.
Pyongyang has the nuclear fire and Seoul benefits from the American nuclear umbrella.
In the event of a nuclear attack on the South, the United States will strike.
Most likely, however, is that North Korea intentionally fired its missile not eastward, as usual, but southeastward.
It targeted the outskirts of South Korea and therefore reached a point barely 60 kilometers from a South Korean fishing port.
The North targeted the outskirts of South Korea, not South Korea.
Read alsoSouth Korea and the United States fire 4 missiles after the North Korean launch
New missiles were launched in the direction of Japan on November 3. Is North Korea seeking to establish a new balance of power?
North Korea, in doing so, has not changed the balance of power.
But it undeniably deliberately increased tension in Far East Asia and more specifically around China, Korea and Japan.
It remains to be seen why.
Several hypotheses, which are not contradictory:
It continues its technological progress and ensures the precision of its shots;
She protests against regular US-South Korean military maneuvers in the region.
Whenever there is North Korea cries foul, and threatens.
This is why the Americans and the South Koreans, who will not give in on this point, have decided to extend their current military maneuvers to show that the new missile fire from the North (in the direction of Japan this time) does not impress them. ;
It recalls that it wants to see the UN sanctions imposed on it for its nuclear tests lifted, that it is a great ballistic and nuclear power and that it must be taken as such;
She also repeats to Putin that she is on his side against the Western world.
North Korea, as you know, is one of the few countries that supports Putin in his war against Ukraine.
Kim Jong-un would like a peace treaty which would recognize in the eyes of the world the "Democratic and People's Republic of Korea" (with quotation marks for democratic and popular!), manager of a network of concentration camps and nuclear power.
Pierre Rigoulot
Can we speak of a “territorial invasion”, as declared by the South Korean president?
It is difficult to speak in the precise sense of the term, of “territorial invasion”.
But the North Koreans touch with this shot at the Exclusive Economic Zone of South Korea and the South Koreans feel threatened as if a point of their territory, but far from their capital, had been hit.
The North Koreans have already done it.
It's time to remember that officially the two parties are still officially at war.
Kim Jong-un would like a peace treaty which would recognize in the eyes of the world the "Democratic and People's Republic of Korea" (with quotation marks for democratic and popular!), manager of a network of concentration camps and nuclear power.
To read also Jacques Grisolet, one of the last veterans of the Korean War: “I had the baraka all my military career”
What might be the repercussions in the region? Can this lead to an armed conflict?
The repercussions in the region are not expected to be significant.
We have been used for decades in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, which has nearly 30,000 soldiers in South Korea, to these threats, these provocations, these disturbing shots.
Without even mentioning the nuclear power of the American ally, South Korea has - and more and more - the means to dissuade the North Koreans from attacking them.
Pierre Rigoulot
However, the obvious progress of the North Korean arsenal pushes the South Koreans to improve their armament.
They don't have nuclear weapons but have conventional means of response powerful enough to make the North Koreans think.
Without even mentioning the nuclear power of the American ally, the South has – and more and more – the means to dissuade the North Koreans from attacking them.
But who can swear that rational conduct will always be held?
You remember the missile crisis in Cuba thirty years ago: Castro and Che Guevara opted for war.
Fortunately, they weren't the ones who had their finger on the button.
In North Korea, it's Kim Jong-un...