Young Latinos, crucial to Democrats, are less enthusiastic this year. Will they go out to vote again?

With less than a week to go before the midterm elections, the odds and the polls are in favor of the Republicans.

Historically, the party that is not in power regains control of Congress, and if Democrats want to reverse that trend this year, they need the support of a key group: young people.

The latest NBC News poll shows why those voters are so important to Democrats.

Of all age segments, young people are by far the most likely to vote blue: Voters ages 18-34 favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 30 points: 60% compared to 30 % in favor of Republicans.

On the other hand, among those between 35 and 49 years old, it is closer: they lean towards the Republicans by 2 points.

And among voters age 50 and older, there is an 11-point Republican lead.

That's what makes young people so important to Democrats: They're not the only ones who are inclined to vote for them, but they are the ones who prefer them more than any other group.

So increasing your stake, even just a little bit, can have a major impact in a close race.

Stickers with the legend: "I Voted Today". Matt Rourke / AP

The issue for the Democrats is then to encourage them to vote.

Can they make it?

"They have the power to determine the balance in Congress"

A significant number of young Latinos know that there is a lot at stake on the ballot and believe that they can play a decisive role in the elections, activists, experts and community members around the country who have mobilized for the vote assured Noticias Telemundo. November 8th.

To convince their classmates that they should cast their vote, they go door to door, paint murals, set up information tables at flea markets and even at quinceañera parties.

“We want to break the stereotype that young people are not interested in going out to vote,” Katia Ramos, 24, a member of the Latino Community Foundation, which is promoting voting among younger members, said during a telephone interview. of the Latino community in California.

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"If you teach someone to acquire the habit of voting at an early age, it is something that they will continue to do when they grow up and they will pass it on to their children," Ramos said.

Latinos are one of the main political forces in the country and the one that is growing the fastest, with some 800,000 potential new voters each year, and more than 35 million who are already eligible to vote, of which a third are young people between 18 and 29 years, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

“They are aware that they have the power to determine the balance in Congress, they understand it, they know it,”

said Jacqueline Garcel, the executive president of the Latino Community Foundation, in a telephone interview.

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In the 2020 election, "young Latinos were key to Biden's victory, giving him wide margins in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helping him narrowly to victory in Georgia and Washington," Melissa Michelson, a science professor, said in an email. politics at Menlo College.

The atmosphere of polarization and intense partisanship in the country may make it more likely that they will vote, the expert said.

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But at the same time, he warned that Latinos' growing discontent with the two major political parties makes them less likely to participate in politics and makes them a force that can veer from left to right from election to election.

“I think Latino youth will turn out in large numbers this year,

,” Michelson said.

So how interested are young voters just days away from the 2022 election?

Comparing the new NBC News poll to previous years (of people ages 18 to 34), we see a complicated picture:

• 2014: 29%

• 2018: 51%

• 2022: 42%

In other words, their enthusiasm is greater than in 2014, but it fell 9 points from four years ago.

The survey also shows that although the Supreme Court ruling in the Dobbs case, which annulled the constitutional protection of the right to abortion, did increase their enthusiasm (it went from 35% before October to 42% after) they were not as motivated as the rest of the electorate, which went from 59% to 70% after October.

A sign shows the entrance to a voting center in Washington DCTom Williams / Getty Images File

What motivates them the most to vote?

According to national surveys, the economy is the number one concern for Latinos and could be their biggest incentive to go to the polls.

And that doesn't bode well for Democrats either.

The rating for how good a job Biden is doing overall is 45%, according to an NBC News poll from September;

nearly three-quarters of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and a majority disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.

At the same time, Republicans lead in the polls when it comes to the economy and the cost of living, among other issues like immigration and border security.

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However, 36% of voters surveyed in another Ipsos and The Washington Post poll say that neither of the two parties has done a good job in this area.

“Young Latinos who are looking to the future want to create an economy that represents them,” Antonio Arellano, 32, vice president of communications for NextGen America, one of the leading youth voting organizations around the world, explained in a telephone interview. of all country.

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"Currently they feel that [the economy] is leaving aside people like them," says Arellano, "who have difficulty buying a house, paying rent, since prices are too high."

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The economy aside, Democrats have the upper hand on other issues that are increasingly of concern to Latino voters, particularly younger ones, such as the climate crisis, gun control, immigration, and Biden policies like the forgiveness of part of the student debt (despite the fact that the president's popularity is rather low), according to a recent poll by Ipsos and Noticias Telemundo.

The repeal of the right to abortion could be another great motivator that is noticeable closer to election day and that is not being reflected so punctually in the polls.

That would work in favor of the Democrats, since those who would be more motivated to vote to maintain their right to abortion would be young women, who tend to vote Democrat.

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Although young Latinos could be decisive in key states like Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where they lead the demographic and cultural change, they still face structural challenges that have prevented them from translating their large numbers into an equivalent electoral force.

This is a highly mobile electorate and one that also lacks the resources traditionally associated with high voter turnout, such as high levels of income and education, Michelson explains.

If they have moved, they will need to register in their new location and many do not have the time or information to do so.

Some lack the necessary identity documents in some Republican-ruled states that have stricter election laws.

"And fear and intimidation at the polls by electoral observers may be another factor, since many of them are usually armed," he said.