How Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine
Created: 2022-11-07 05:03
By: Vivian Werg
Russian President Vladimir Putin at a PR meeting with the military.
© Mikhail Klimentyev/ dpa
Russia keeps threatening to use nuclear weapons: but what are the scenarios and what would be the effects?
Moscow – Vladimir Putin's threats with nuclear weapons hardly surprise the international community in the Ukraine war.
Too many contradictory signals have already come from Moscow.
Now, however, talks in the Kremlin have fueled speculation that Russia may be well advanced in planning to use nuclear weapons.
As the
New York Times
reports, a discussion on when and how Russia might use a tactical nuclear weapon took place recently in Moscow, in Putin's absence.
The US government was now alarmed by this news.
Ukraine war: Use of nuclear weapons by Russia not ruled out
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told
Newsweek
that
it is not impossible for Russia to resort to nuclear weapons in the future.
He thinks it is very unlikely that the Russian government will use nuclear weapons in the short term - but if things go badly for the country, then it is possible.
Still, he cautioned against speculating about what the first Russian use of nuclear weapons could entail.
There are many uncertainties, Acton said.
Several scenarios are theoretically conceivable.
In order of escalation levels, these would be:
An
underground
nuclear test in Russia
An above-
ground
nuclear test in Russia
A
demonstration launch
over international waters such as the Black Sea
The
next stage
would be a demonstration launch over a sparsely populated part of Ukraine, and the
most potent step
would be deployment on the battlefield against Ukrainian forces.
Speaking to Newsweek
, Acton said he doesn't claim to know which of the above is the most likely .
Even more serious options are possible, such as attacks on Kyiv or even the United States - but this is rather unlikely for a first use.
In any case, even if deployed on the battlefield, the goal would not be to gain a tactical advantage, but to terrify Ukraine, and especially its partners, into giving in or making concessions.
Acton explained in an interview that Russia is pursuing a deterrence doctrine of escalation to de-escalation.
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Use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine: How they could be used
The United States Institute of Peace ruled in October that one option for Russia could be to publicly move a nuclear weapon closer to Ukraine or to detonate a tactical nuclear weapon off the coast as a "demonstration strike".
According to Pentagon estimates, Russia has up to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which have a lower yield and range than the warheads on ICBMs.
They have never been used in combat, but could be used in a variety of ways.
Among other things, by rockets or artillery shells.
This could allow Moscow to "de-escalate" the situation and help Putin keep his forces in Ukraine to declare victory.
Some analysts have predicted an attack over the Black Sea.
But Patricia Lewis, research director for international security at the London think tank Chatham House, thinks that's unlikely.
This would endanger Russia's own fleet, she told
Newsweek
.
She explained her view of things to the news portal as follows:
There is no need for Moscow to send a message about its nuclear capabilities through a demonstration strike.
We already know that the country is capable of this.
As for a strike on its own territory in Ukraine, Russia could do it, for example, in a city that it is evacuating.
Domestically, however, this could raise the question of why the Kremlin is bombing its own territory.
The problem with nuclear weapons is that regardless of their size and explosive power, they always leave radioactive chaos in their wake.
Another option is to detonate a nuclear weapon in a rural area further west in Ukraine on the pretext of attacking a suspected nuclear or biological weapons facility, claiming that rapid action was needed to prevent worse.
A lull in fighting would follow, and NATO's approach of not responding in kind would allow Russia to scare everyone.
G7 warns: If nuclear weapons are used, Moscow must reckon with serious consequences
According to Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst and head of the Russians Nuclear Forces research project, Ukraine's armed forces are dispersed and mobile, meaning there are no suitable military targets.
A nuclear strike as a demonstration would be conceivable, but then the question of meaning arises.
Podvig said the demonstration would be ineffective without the message that they were ready to follow up with attacks on cities and civilians.
On Friday (November 4), the G7 countries warned that Moscow faces serious consequences if chemical, biological or nuclear weapons are used.
However, according to Podvig, it is difficult to imagine that Putin would call his generals together and order them to kill tens to hundreds of thousands of people.
(
Vivian Werg
)
