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(CNN) --
As if Democrats needed any more to be convinced the stakes are high in Tuesday's midterm elections, President Joe Biden gave an assessment of the situation should Republicans take control. Congress, during a fundraiser last Friday in Chicago.
"If we lose the House and the Senate, it's going to be a horrible two years," Biden told the small crowd gathered in a hotel ballroom, where cameras were not allowed.
"The good news is that I will have a veto pen."
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After two years of Democratic control of Congress, a leadership change in the House or Senate — or both — will take Biden's presidency into a whole new phase.
Biden himself has been optimistic in the final days of the campaign, but the reality is that Democrats could soon lose their majority in Congress, and with it Biden's ability to pass his top priorities.
White House officials have begun to point out that their losses will not be as severe as those in previous midterm elections, including in 2010, and say that the fact that Democrats have any chance of putting up a fight is a positive sign for Biden.
But his advisers privately acknowledge that they see no viable path for Democrats to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives, even though the president and his aides enter the day with the view that the prospect of Democrats maintaining their majority in the House Senate is real, although it may take days, or more, to become a reality.
However, even a loss of a few seats — Republicans only need to pick up five seats to take control of the House of Representatives — would mean dramatic changes for the president.
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Here are four areas at stake this Tuesday for Biden and his administration:
Republican Party investigations
Republicans on Capitol Hill have made it abundantly clear that if they take control of Congress, Biden must prepare: investigations are coming.
A majority in the House or Senate would give Republican lawmakers powerful chairs on a series of oversight committees, giving them the ability to launch investigations targeting Biden, the White House and even members of the president's family. .
And so far, Republican members have indicated they are eager to do just that.
GOP lawmakers, including Reps. James Comer and Jim Jordan, who are likely to chair the House Oversight and Judiciary committees, respectively, are preparing to investigate a range of issues, from Biden's son's dealings, Hunter, to what Republicans allege is political interference by the FBI and Justice Department, going through the origins of the covid-19 pandemic.
President Joe Biden, on October 4, 2022. (Credit: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)
And that's not to mention the rumors of the dismissal of the Secretary of National Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, or even the president himself.
White House officials have been waiting and preparing for this new world for months, and this includes hiring staff earlier this summer to bolster their oversight operations.
Officials say that if Republicans gain control of Congress, the White House is prepared to bolster those efforts further with additional hiring, and they believe it will be prepared to deal with future GOP investigations that lack merit. politically motivated and malicious.
While officials have been careful not to preempt any GOP action or prejudge election results, they are also well aware of the political dynamics that can play in their favor, people familiar with the matter said.
"The American people have historically not responded well to egregious overreach," one of the people told CNN, specifically citing the new Republican majority's battles with former President Bill Clinton.
"We'll be prepared, but it's hard to look at House Republicans and think he won't go into that territory."
agenda issues
The likelihood of Biden losing seats — and majorities — in Congress has hung over the White House throughout his term.
It's part of what has motivated the president's ambitious legislative agenda, which included major Covid-19 relief and a bipartisan infrastructure package, in the first few months of his presidency.
If Republicans win control of one or both chambers, the era of big progressive bills is likely to come to an end.
In his place, Biden will go on the defensive as Republicans work to undo much of what he accomplished in the first two years of his term.
The GOP has already pledged to roll back landmark elements of Biden's legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, including his new higher taxes on corporations.
And they could work to roll back or impeach some of the president's climate initiatives that are included in the package.
Other areas the president has promised to act on, such as enshrining abortion rights across the country, would stand no chance of moving forward if Republicans take control.
And other programs, like student loan debt relief, could be blocked by the GOP.
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In all of these arenas, Biden is willing to exercise his veto power to fend off possible attempts by Republicans to undermine his agenda.
As president, Biden has not vetoed any bills, a perfect display of Democratic control on Capitol Hill.
White House officials have already been quietly preparing for the areas where compromise is needed: the spending bills and raising the nation's debt limit.
The two issues represent mandatory passage points that have been at the center of a series of battles between Congress and the White House over the past decade.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California has been among House Republicans who have vowed to deploy similar tactics if he wins the majority.
The first concrete indications of how this situation may develop will not be long in coming.
Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill in a matter of weeks to reach an agreement to finance the government.
At the same time, Biden has a long history of working with Republicans to push through bills.
When he ran for office, he vowed to find areas to work together, something he was able to do in several of his key legislative victories.
Biden advisers point to the bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill and the $250 billion semiconductor science and manufacturing bill as a road map for possible bipartisan successes.
Biden's decision for 2024
As soon as the results of the 2022 midterm elections are known, national attention will immediately turn to 2024, including the question of whether Biden will run for a second term.
Although Biden and his advisers have been quietly thinking about their political future for months and have moved forward in talks in the last month, those deliberations will accelerate with the close of the midterm cycle.
Biden has signaled that family gatherings over the holiday period are important to his decision-making, though people familiar with the matter say first lady Dr. Jill Biden and others are on board with another bid.
For weeks, the president and his advisers have maintained that their intention, for now, is to run again.
Biden moved quickly to transfer his 2020 campaign to the Democratic National Committee after defeating former President Donald Trump.
The party committee has spent the last two years maintaining and bolstering its base list, its fundraising channel, and building the infrastructure at the state level that would form the critical infrastructure of a future campaign.
They have also said that no decision is final until the president has had ample opportunity to discuss his political future with his family.
But Biden's decision in 2024 won't just be a family affair: There will also be strong political dynamics at play.
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For one thing, Trump's decision to run for a second term — and the timing of that potential announcement — is expected to be a key factor.
Biden advisers continue to believe the president is better positioned to take on his predecessor, and are banking on a second run between Biden and Trump.
Another consideration: how Biden's fellow Democrats respond to Tuesday night's results.
Polls this fall in the US indicate that most Democrats say they don't want Biden to run again in 2024. And Tuesday's losses for Democrats could only exacerbate the sense within the party that he needs to a change of address.
While many elected officials from Biden's party have been loyal in expressing public support for a second term, some others have openly called for the change.
Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who said over the summer that he doesn't think Biden should run again, told CNN on Monday that he believes "a majority of Democrats" think the same.
"Regardless of tomorrow's results, I think Democrats need to rebuild our brand and restock our bench with future leaders, both for Congress and for the White House," Phillips said.
"President Biden has delivered on his promise to serve as a stabilizing 'bridge' to the future, and I expect a majority of Democrats will seek a next-generation candidate to take over in 2024."
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personnel changes
In the first two years of his term, Biden has made very few changes to his cabinet and management team.
However, the midpoint of his first term could be a natural time for personnel changes.
This reflects a reluctance to make moves in his team, despite calls that have been made at various times to sack members of his administration.
Biden has refrained from firing or calling for the resignation of any member of his cabinet and has sought to shore up his leadership team months before this year's midterm elections.
There has been staff turnover, even in the highest positions in the White House.
His press secretary, White House adviser and senior adviser for public engagement all left earlier this year.
Some officials decided to leave the White House after their first year in office, while others left at the beginning of the summer.
But Biden's inner circle remains mostly intact.
They include Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Senior Advisors Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, Deputy Chiefs of Staff Bruce Reed and Jen O'Malley Dillon, Communications Director Kate Bedingfield and Senior Communications Advisor Anita Dunn.
Officials have said changes to both the President's Cabinet and senior White House staff are possible later this year, though no moves are guaranteed.
Should Biden announce his decision to run in 2024, several of his core team members are seen as likely to move into the political operation.
Earlier this fall, the White House established a talent search project to prepare for potential Cabinet and senior administration vacancies following the midterm elections.
Klain floated the idea of the talent search, which will be overseen by two former Biden White House members, Jeff Zients and Natalie Quillian.
Both served similar roles during the 2020 presidential transition.
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"It's just a good management practice to make sure you're thinking ahead," O'Malley Dillon said during an Axios event last week.
"The people who are a part of this and who help make that change are the people you hope and want to see."
Zients and Quillian — who already served in COVID-19 response roles in the White House early in Biden's presidential term — have specifically conducted a broad and diverse search for potential candidates from outside the administration for cabinet positions and top management.
Some high-level officials, like Covid-19 adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci, are preparing to leave soon.
US climate envoy John Kerry has told CNN that he plans to stay in the administration at least until this week's major climate conference in Egypt, without indicating whether he will stay longer. .
And Biden has just appointed a veteran of several Democratic administrations, John Podesta, to be his climate adviser.
The future of other officials is unclear.
Klain has been the subject of speculation, and White House chiefs of staff typically serve only part of the president's term.
But as Biden faces the inevitable personnel transition that all presidents experience after midterm elections, Klain's deeply entrenched role in every corner of White House operations may create even greater incentive for stay, some officials say, though they acknowledge he has given no indication of his intentions.
Dunn, who would be the first woman to hold that position, has been proposed as a possible replacement.
"I like the job I have," Dunn insisted at the Axios event.
And he added, "I hope Ron Klain stays as long as Joe Biden is president."
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