Russia's turnaround in nuclear strikes?

US experts point to changes in Putin's inner circle

Created: 08/11/2022, 09:25

By: Felix Durach

Russian President Vladimir Putin (l) in conversation with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

© MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP

In recent weeks, Russian officials have repeatedly hinted at the use of nuclear weapons.

Now the Kremlin's rhetoric has apparently changed.

MOSCOW — In the final months of the Ukraine war, fears of a Russian nuclear strike continued to mount.

The Russian power elite in the Kremlin repeatedly promised the use of nuclear weapons with radical statements.

Most recently, the accusation spread by Moscow that Kyiv was planning to build a “dirty bomb” caused increasing insecurity in the West.

However, the Russian threats apparently failed to have the desired effect.

The West continues to stand united behind Ukraine and is also supplying it with military equipment.

The US government only announced a new support package of 400 million euros on Friday.

And the Kremlin?

Apparently he's changing his strategy.

As analyzed by the experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the powerful men in Moscow have been increasingly relying on nuclear de-escalation since the beginning of November.

Ukraine News: Nuclear strike turnaround in the Kremlin?

Ministry of Defense strikes conciliatory tones

Last week, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement on "preventing a nuclear war" in which unusually soft tones were struck.

The statement said: Russia's actions are "strictly and consistently guided by the position that a nuclear war in which there are no winners and which must never be unleashed is inadmissible." for the reduction and limitation of nuclear weapons.

After weeks of threats — Russia is probably rethinking nuclear deterrence

These statements are particularly noteworthy in view of the verbal gaffes of Russian officials in the past.

Above all, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, repeatedly caused a stir.

Most recently, the former president accused the West of pressuring Russia to use nuclear weapons.

In September, the 57-year-old openly threatened the "fall of mankind".

According to the observations of the ISW, Medvedev is now also focusing more on cohesion within Russia than on the threat of a nuclear strike.

Putin rejects allegations: Kremlin never discussed the use of nuclear weapons

Moscow's attempt at de-escalation can also be observed in the country's most powerful man.

President Vladimir Putin said in a speech at the end of October that Russia sees no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

That's why the Kremlin never discussed the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Russian head of state claims.

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However, according to information from the US government, the Russian military leadership did discuss the use of nuclear weapons in October.

At a meeting, officials are said to have discussed when and how nuclear weapons could be used.

The US broadcaster CNN reported this with reference to government-related sources.

However, the Russian President is said not to have attended the meeting.

US Experts: Russia's Nuclear Strike Threats Missed Their Main Targets

According to the experts from the ISW, Russia was primarily pursuing two goals with the narrative of a possible nuclear strike against Ukraine.

First of all, the support of the West and NATO for Ukraine should be broken out of fear of a nuclear conflict.

The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army should be stopped by the absence of Western arms deliveries and financial aid.

According to the ISW, the Kremlin also wanted to use increased threats to persuade Ukraine to negotiate.

In these, Russia could then have enforced the recognition of the illegal annexations of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson.

However, despite persistent threats, the Kremlin was unable to achieve either goal.

The lack of success has now apparently even persuaded the Kremlin to take a turn.

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High costs, hardly any profit: the Kremlin is probably turning its back on nuclear threats

"The Kremlin's shift in rhetoric suggests that senior Russian military commanders are likely to be aware, to some extent, of the massive cost to the small operational gains that would result from Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine or NATO," writes the ISW in its report.

According to the analysis, Russia is reluctant to actually use nuclear weapons for fear of the consequences.