In the US midterm elections, it is almost impossible for the Democratic Party to repeat the situation of controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives after the 2020 election.
There is almost no suspense in the predictions of the major media that the Democratic Party will lose control of the House of Representatives.
Either outcome is unspeakably good for China.
At the beginning, the two parties in the United States had a relatively consistent position on the Ukraine crisis, that is, to support Ukraine and fight against Russia.
However, in this mid-term election, the Republican Party played the banner of re-examining the aid to Ukraine, and there were different voices within the Democratic Party on the aid to Ukraine.
The House of Representatives, as the main agency for approving foreign aid, will narrow aid to Ukraine under the leadership of the Republican Party.
The situation in the Ukraine war after the midterm elections is likely to take a turn for the worse as U.S. aid policy changes.
The probability of Russia and Ukraine moving towards peace talks will be very high.
On October 16, 2022, the Chinese and American flags fluttered at the entrance of a Sino-US joint venture in Beijing.
(Visual China)
The Ukrainian war seems to have nothing to do with China, but in fact, once the war in Europe that restrains the energy of the United States is extinguished, the struggle between the United States and Russia will come to an end.
The U.S. struggle against China will inevitably be put back on the agenda.
The two parties in the United States will enter a state of competition to be tough on China.
Although the US president is in charge of foreign affairs, Congress has a certain say in the formulation of US foreign policy.
If the Republicans control the House of Representatives, their China policy will only be tougher, especially on the Taiwan Strait and cross-strait issues. The Republicans are more radical than the Democrats.
Once Joe Biden becomes a lame president, his chances of passing domestic policy bills will not be very large, so the room for domestic affairs will be very limited.
It can be expected that the second half of Biden's term will focus on diplomacy, paving the way for the Democratic election two years later.
It is unknown whether Biden may make more radical arguments or policies than the Republican Party.
As an opposition party, the Republican Party is unable to exert its internal affairs, and will naturally use its control of Congress to exert its power in foreign affairs.
Under the tough logic of the competition, Sino-US relations may slide on a dangerous road.
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