Judging from the historical law that the ruling party must lose in the mid-term elections, even if the Republican Party does win control of the House of Representatives this time, it can be regarded as an unqualified performance, and the expected "red tsunami" has not come.
But the Democrats, who can keep the Senate intact, have absolutely no reason to relax.
The voting trend of Latino voters in this election is still worthy of the Democratic Party's vigilance.
In the past 20 years, liberal public opinion in the United States has generally predicted that as the proportion of the Latino population steadily increases, the Democratic Party will become the stable majority ruling party in the United States.
No matter how dissatisfied conservatives are with the changes in American population and culture, the long-term demographic advantage of ethnic minorities will build a "blue dam" for the Democratic Party to block the red waves.
Lost in Florida
However, the elections since 2016 have gradually proved that this prediction is only wishful thinking.
The Florida election in this election is a clear example.
Florida has long been a swing state in U.S. elections, and its Latino population is a traditional Democratic vote base.
Miami-Dade County, with a population of more than 65 percent Latino, remained firmly in democracy even when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in the state by a narrow 2.2 percentage points in 2016 hand of the party.
By 2020, Biden will lose to Trump in Florida by nearly 4 percentage points, and Miami-Dade County is still in Biden's hands.
However, Biden's vote has fallen to 53%, compared to Hillary's 63%.
In this year's midterm elections, Miami-Dade County's election was finally turned over, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio winning nearly 10 percentage points against his Democratic opponent and Governor Ron DeSantis leading The Democratic candidate was over 11 percentage points.
Miami-Dade County has supported the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, and the last time it supported a Republican gubernatorial candidate dates back to 2002.
Overall, the Democrats' Latino vote in Florida is "bleeding."
In 2018, the Democratic Party still won the support of 66% of Latino voters in the state. In 2020, this number fell to 63%. By 2022, the Democratic Party was only 56%.
Some analysts may think that Florida's Latino voters are mostly descendants of Cuban immigrants and have a deep dislike of socialist left-wing politicians, so it is only a "special case".
According to an authoritative poll before the midterm elections, the Democratic Party is still supported by 60% of Latinos nationwide — a figure that reassures many liberals.
However, from the results of the state polls in this midterm election, it can be seen that the loss of Latino votes is not a "special case" but a "general trend."
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the Republican 2024 presidential candidate after Trump.
(AP)
Latino vote 'bleeds more'
We can use the top five states for Latino population as a reference — New Mexico, Texas, California, Arizona and Nevada.
Compare the results of the polls for the 2018 and 2022 state gubernatorial elections.
The percentage of Democratic Latinos in the five states fell from 71% to 69%, from 63% to 54%, from 64% to 65%, from 64% to 52%, and from 62% fell to 53%.
Overall, the Democratic Party's Latino support has been draining more quickly than slowly, except in liberal California.
At the national level, Latino support for Democrats has also fallen from 66% in 2018 to 56% in 2022.
This "general trend" poses a serious threat to the Democratic Party in the above-mentioned states with a high Latino population.
For example, in this contest for control of the Senate, Nevada, which Democrats thought had been supporting the Democratic presidential candidate since 2008, has long since become part of the "Blue State dyke". Catherine Cortez Masto will "safely pass".
Unexpectedly, Masto and his Republican opponent Adam Laxalt have been in a tight election. Until the time of this article, Masto continued to lag behind Laxalt.
If Democrats lose the seat, control of the Senate may be left to the Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia.
Masto's election was in a hurry, and the Democratic Party used former President Clinton to come out to the rescue.
(AP)
Another example is Texas.
As the liberal population continues to move into big cities in Texas, the Democratic Party has always believed that the deep red Texas will have the possibility of "turning blue" in line with the trend of doubling the proportion of its Latino population to nearly 40% in the past 40 years.
However, the loss of Latino votes has made the Democratic Party's long-term blue dream come to nothing.
Either Trump in the 2020 election or Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in the 2022 election can take the state lightly.
American liberals who advocate racial politics tend to look for bright spots in the dark.
After the Democratic gubernatorial candidate and party political star Beto O'Rourke lost to Abbott by a double-digit margin, the liberal "New York Times" specifically pointed out that O'Rourke kept The 34th House of Representatives district in Texas, the "traditional deep blue" Texas that was lost to the Republicans in the previous by-election, has also received high attention this time.
This website has already analyzed the reasons for the Democratic Party's loss of support from Latinos from the perspective of racial politics before the election, so I won't repeat it here.
If Democrats still refuse to recognize that Latino votes are being lost and that the "blue dam" they have imagined for 20 years is an illusion, this election, if not a major setback for the Democratic Party, will be the "final judgment". It will only be a matter of time.
Beijing does not criticize the U.S. mid-term elections, but only says that it wants Washington to find the right way to get along in the new era between China and the U.S.
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