BRUSSELS -
The European Commission is revising upward expectations on Italy's GDP growth in 2022, now seen at 3.8%, compared to 2.9% of the estimates released in July.
Instead, the forecast for 2023 is cut with Italy's GDP expected to grow by 0.3%, compared to the 0.9% previously indicated.
This is what emerges from the autumn economic forecasts.
For 2024, the expectation is that the Italian GDP will start to rise again to reach + 1.1%.
In the autumn economic forecasts, the European Commission also expects
inflation in Italy to reach 8.7% this year to reach 6.6% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.
The EU Commission revises its estimates for 2022 upwards and cuts those for 2023 due to the effects on global demand of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation.
The expectation is that the GDP in the eurozone will stand at + 3.2% this year (against the + 2.6% indicated in July), to slow down to + 0.3% in 2023 (it was +1.4 % in previous estimates).
The forecast for 2024 is now for eurozone GDP growth of 1.5%.
"The energy crisis is eroding the purchasing power of families and weighing on production",
reports the EU executive in the autumn economic forecasts.
"In a context of high uncertainty, high pressures on energy prices, erosion of household purchasing power, a weaker external environment and more stringent financing conditions, it is expected that the EU, the euro area and most member states will find themselves in a recession in the last quarter of the year ".
"Uncertainty remains exceptionally high, with mainly downside risks."
He reported the EU Commissioner for Economy,
Paolo Gentiloni,
presenting the Commission's autumn economic forecasts.
Among the assumptions of the forecasts, he explained, also the idea that "geopolitical tensions will not normalize or intensify before the end of the forecast period and that all sanctions adopted against Russia will remain in force".