Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered Russian troops to withdraw from Kherson and build a defense system on the left (ie, east) bank of the Dnieper.
Ukraine is cautious about the withdrawal of Russian troops.
However, President Volodymyr Zelensky convened a meeting to set up military and political institutions in Kherson Oblast.
Kherson is the only major city occupied by Russian forces since the "special military operation".
A month ago, four Ukrainian states, including Kherson, were put into Russia.
The withdrawal of the Russian army from Kherson still has a very strong symbolic meaning.
The situation inside and outside the battlefield has undergone fundamental and structural changes, and the dawn of peace is not far away.
Written by: Sun Xingjie, Professor, School of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University
Is it just a coincidence of time that Russia ordered the withdrawal of troops as soon as the US midterm elections ended?
Not necessarily so.
U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. knew that Russia had been preparing for a period of time, but did not make a judgment until after the U.S. mid-term elections.
The prospects of the Russian army in the Ukrainian battlefield do depend on the United States.
In lengthy speeches in September and October, President Vladimir Putin named the United States and NATO as Russia's main threats, and described the Russian-Ukrainian war as somewhat like a "civil war".
There is no "red tide" in the mid-term elections in the United States, and the fundamentals of the Democratic Party are relatively stable, which means that the US policy will remain stable after the mid-term elections, and the Biden administration's containment of Russia and assistance to Ukraine are not strong. Big changes will take place.
Since October, Russia has evacuated residents from Kherson, and more than 100,000 people have left Kherson.
It can be said that this is the prelude to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson.
The decision was not made until after the mid-term elections in the United States, which also reflects the strategic dilemma faced by the Russian military.
In terms of war form, the Russian-Ukrainian war is a conventional war under the balance of nuclear deterrence.
The nature and form of war are gradually formed in fierce confrontation and games.
The withdrawal of the Russian army from Kherson was not only the abandonment of the only capital city by the Russian army, but also the convergence of multiple turning points.
First, from a nuclear deterrence perspective, this is the first major setback since Russia made it clear that it would not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the risk of nuclear war exists, especially after the four eastern Ukrainian states were put into Russia. In theory, Ukraine's counter-offensive means an attack on Russia's "territory", and Russia may use nuclear weapons.
After the end of September, there was frequent interaction between the United States and Russia, and US National Security Adviser Sullivan also confirmed that the United States and Russia are conducting consultations on reducing the risk of nuclear war.
In October, the Crimea Bridge was blown up and Russia's Black Sea Fleet was attacked. These incidents approached Russia's red line in form, but Russia's counterattack was a relatively large attack on military, energy and other goals in Ukraine. scale attacks without the risk of escalating nuclear war.
Instead, Russia raised the issue of a "dirty bomb", which the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed after an inspection of Ukraine had no "dirty bomb".
Crimea Bridge Explosion: The picture shows on October 8, 2022, an explosion occurred on the Crimea Bridge connecting the Russian mainland and the Crimean Peninsula, with fire and smoke clearly visible from a distance.
(AP)
On November 3, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement preventing nuclear war.
From this, it can be seen that Ukraine basically "recovered" the targets within the territory of Ukraine before 2014, while Russia did not use nuclear weapons to deter or counterattack in the end.
This establishes the basic principle that Ukraine's military operations within its territory in 2014 will not be subject to a nuclear counterattack by Russia; the United States and Russia confirmed in November to restart dialogue on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
In other words, the nuclear strategic dialogue between the United States and Russia has returned to the state before the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Second, from the perspective of conventional warfare, Ukraine has been promoting a counterattack against Kherson since August.
The Kherson counteroffensive has lasted for nearly 3 months, but during this process, the breakthrough of the Ukrainian army's counterattack was on the northern front, especially the battle of Izum in September. The Russian army suffered heavy losses and the battlefield situation changed significantly , the strength of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, the offensive and defensive situation has reversed.
Starting from the Donbass campaign in April, the Russian-Ukrainian war entered a mode of attrition. The Russian army’s advantages in personnel, firepower, and logistics were maintained until the occupation of Severo-Donetsk in July; after August, heavy weapons and trained soldiers provided by NATO Entering the battlefield, the Ukrainian army used long-range firepower such as "Haimas" to carry out precise strikes on the Russian army's logistical supplies, ammunition depots, and headquarters.
The bridge on the Dnieper River behind Kherson suffered multiple rounds of bombing, and the Russian army in Kherson faced severe logistical pressure.
The process of the Russian-Ukrainian war is very in line with the description of Mao Zedong's "On Protracted War". The first month was the Russian army's strategic offensive, and then it entered a stalemate stage. After September, the Ukrainian army began a strategic counter-offensive.
The Russian army's attack and the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive were very similar in rhythm and intensity.
The situation in Ukraine: The picture shows the "Himas" High Mobility Multiple Rocket System (HIMARS) participating in the exercise in Latvia on September 26, 2022.
The United States has provided Ukraine with several sets of HIMARS.
(AP)
In the end, the top brass of the Russian army gradually realized and accepted the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. How to end the war has become a challenge that the Russian army must face in the future. Retreat at the least cost is a more urgent and realistic goal.
When ordering the retreat from Kherson, Shoigu said that the life and health of Russian soldiers were the top priority, which meant a change in the focus and mission of the Russian army.
Since the start of the war, the front-line commander of the Russian army has changed again and again. The current front-line commander-in-chief, Sergei Surovikin, insisted on withdrawing his troops because the logistical supply line of the Russian army was not enough to support the continued occupation of Kherson.
This means that if the army is not withdrawn, it is likely to be surrounded by the Ukrainian army, and the consequences can be imagined.
Sulovkin's opinion was eventually accepted by Shoigu, and also supported by the Chechen leader Kadyrov and the leader of the mercenary "Wagner".
It can be said that the withdrawal of Kherson is the consensus of the Russian front-line commanders.
The Battle of Kherson was not as bloody and tragic as Mariupol, but its significance was no less than the Battle of Mariupol.
The Ukrainian army "forced back" the Russian army with its structural advantages such as weaponry and communication coordination.
Of course, the Ukrainian army has been retrained and armed by NATO.
The Battle of Kherson was to some extent also a showdown between NATO and Russia.
As Russian troops withdrew from Kherson, Russia announced that President Vladimir Putin would not attend the G20 summit in Indonesia, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the G20 summit via video.
This seems to be a metaphor for the fate of Russia and Ukraine and the world order after the Russian-Ukrainian war.
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