These are Biden's challenges after the midterm elections 1:52
(CNN) --
It was a disappointing weekend for Republicans and former President Donald Trump as Democrats managed to maintain control of the Senate for two more years and stemmed a red wave in the House of Representatives, the final results of which are still pending. unknown six days after the election.
The weekend was a moment of vindication for President Joe Biden, whose party defied history by avoiding a midterm beating, and a revealing moment for some Republicans who had tied themselves to Trump's lies about the electoral fraud.
In even as the GOP appears to be slowly marching toward control of the House of Representatives — vowing to make life deeply uncomfortable for Biden for the rest of his term with investigations into his administration and even his son, Hunter — the likely Republican majority will be smaller, and therefore more fractious, and the most radical legislators will have more influence.
ANALYSIS |
How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied the midterm story
As Trump presses with a campaign launch set for Tuesday, November 15, losing the Senate to the Republican Party and competitive races across the country have raised new questions about his chances to win back the White House.
Meanwhile, the defeat of several high-profile election deniers boosted Biden's global pro-democracy campaign — a central part of his 2022 campaign message — as he headed to Cambodia for talks with Chinese leader Xi. Jinping and as he prepares for a possible rematch with his predecessor.
Pence tells in a book how he lived through the insurrection of the Capitol 2:21
Democrats cling to the Senate after the elections
Political parties are meaningless if they do not gain power.
So it's obvious why Democrats are celebrating Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada on Saturday night, which gave them her 50th seat and control of the Senate.
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However, they would not have gotten to this point without John Fetterman's victory last week in Pennsylvania, where Democrats clinched a GOP seat.
Had Republicans held on to that seat, control of the Senate would have been reduced to the Georgia runoff in December, which, while still hugely important in shaping the balance of power, will now matter less than the 2021 runoffs that gave the Democrats the Senate in the last elections.
Control of the Senate is very important for multiple reasons, not least because by winning it on very unpromising political terms, the Democrats clinched the most stunning result for a sitting president's party in a midterm election since George W. Bush in 2002.
"I think one thing that pundits and forecasters missed was that in all the inflammatory ads that hit the airwaves and TV for weeks, people knew that the Democrats were getting things for them," he said Saturday night. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer night after CNN and other news outlets projected the Nevada result.
The failure in Nevada and in seizing control of the Senate is already having repercussions within the Republican Party in the Upper House.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the Senate Republicans' campaign arm, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham have called for delaying leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday until after the Georgia runoff.
Scott said he had been approached by "a lot of people" to run against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, with whom he had major disagreements over messaging during the midterm elections.
However, the fact that the party fell short under Scott's leadership is likely to go unnoticed by many lawmakers.
Why does it take so long to count midterm votes on the West Coast?
More importantly, the Democrats' stay in power gives Biden two more years to remake the judiciary and counter the influx of confirmed conservative judges during Trump's presidency.
In the event of a vacancy on the Supreme Court, a Democratic-led Senate would have a good chance of installing a new justice to begin to weaken the current conservative majority.
The failure of the Republicans to gain control means the White House will be spared a relentless barrage of investigations and subpoenas in the Senate to coincide with those likely to pour out of the House if, as expected, the GOP finally get the most on that camera.
This represents an important personal and political benefit for Biden.
This is how the 2 parties react to the midterm elections 5:40
And while a Republican House of Representatives would bring few legislative victories for the president, Schumer will be able to shield his senators from difficult votes that could hurt them in re-election campaigns in 2024, when they have to defend seats in difficult states like Montana, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona.
The unexpectedly strong showing by the Democrats, which will leave both chambers essentially split down the middle, means the 2024 presidential election is even more critical.
A popular candidate from either camp could have strong traction and lead his party to a monopoly on power in Washington.
Why Georgia Is Still Important to Democrats After This Election
The final numbers in the Senate will not be known until the runoff in Georgia on December 6, which will face Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker.
If Warnock, who is running for a full six-year term, holds out, Democrats will have a 51-49 majority.
A two-seat margin is clearly better for Democrats than having to rely on the tie-breaking vote wielded by Vice President Kamala Harris.
It also gives them a little cushion if one of their members becomes ill or incapacitated and lessens the chance that they will lose their majority at some point in the new Congress.
A 51-49 margin would also be a Joe Manchin-proof majority, meaning the moderate Democratic senator from West Virginia might not enjoy the veto power he has held for the past two years over Schumer's intentions.
If Manchin decides to run for re-election in 2024 in a state that Trump won big twice, it is likely to make for an even tougher vote for the Democratic leadership.
Earlier this month, for example, the senator from the coal state lashed out at the president over his policies on climate change.
And a clear majority for Democrats means Schumer would not need a deal with McConnell to divvy up committee appropriations and would have much more control over the process, a fact Senate veteran Biden pointed to in reacting to the Senate victory in Phnom Penh over the weekend.
Republicans have yet to gain control of the House of Representatives
In a moment of bravado late on election night, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told activists who put a victory party on hold: "When they wake up, we'll be in the majority. ".
Six embarrassing days later, still waiting.
Final results now depend on elections in California, Arizona and Oregon, which may take days to finalize, underscoring the disappointing performance of the Republican Party.
The Republicans currently have 212 House seats and the Democrats 204. A total of 218 is needed to obtain a majority.
It remains highly likely that Republicans will control the House with a narrow majority.
The Democrats need a near perfect race in the remaining seats to stay in power and that is unlikely to happen.
But McCarthy's predictions of a big win backfired and are making his expected smooth path to the lead rather rocky.
Hardliners in the House Freedom Caucus are demanding big concessions — which could render his leadership inoperative — in exchange for endorsing him for the top job.
Those more extreme lawmakers could also take advantage of the GOP's slim majority to put the House at the service of the Trump campaign in 2024. CNN reported Sunday that Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs is considering challenging McCarthy in the House leadership race. House, a move that could ultimately undermine the current minority leader and expose anger over the GOP's performance, even if his team insists it will have the votes to be House speaker.
While the pro-Trump radical right will seek to dominate the House GOP if they win a majority, the truth is that the Republicans did grab some key House seats held by the Democrats, and some of those incoming Republicans will likely be among the most vulnerable members of the party in 2024. It is unclear how McCarthy will reconcile his needs with the Trump caucus, which is eager to impeach Biden.
As a battle for the Republican House leadership looms, the current limbo means the long-awaited Democratic fight to succeed Nancy Pelosi is frozen.
The House speaker said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that she would not make any decisions until the fate of the House was decided.
Following the brutal attack on her husband, the 82-year-old president said family and political considerations could weigh on her future.
But she did not reveal her move.
"I'm not going to ask anyone for anything. People are campaigning, and that's a beautiful thing," the California Democrat quixotically told CNN's Dana Bash, when asked if she might feel motivated to continue as a leader.
"I'm not asking anyone for anything. My members are asking me to consider doing it. But again, let's get past the election first.
'Three
strikes
and you're out'
A broad group of Republican leaders and political analysts blame Trump for foisting on extreme and untested candidates in the races with a flawed message: obsession with his falsehoods about 2020 voter fraud.
"I think it's basically the third straight election that Donald Trump has cost us the race. And it's like three
strikes
and you're out," Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan said on "State of the Union" Sunday.
The problem with Hogan's analogy is that even as Trump has been at a political low point—after the 2018 blue wave in the House, his 2020 election loss, and the Capitol insurrection 2021—hasn't lost ground with the fervent Republican base that put him on the road to the White House in 2016 and still adores him.
Trump was hoping to emerge this weekend on a wave of Republican euphoria after an excellent election that he hoped to claim as his own and use to fuel his campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
However, some of Trump's favorite candidates, such as Pennsylvania's Mehmet Oz in the Senate race and Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial race, lost.
One of the most high-profile election deniers, Kari Lake, remains locked in a close race with Democrat Katie Hobbs in the Arizona gubernatorial race, which CNN has no forecast on yet.
Voters may be unhappy with the Democrats and with Biden's record on inflation.
But they resisted handing over power to radical Republicans who champion Trump's ideas.
Yet Trump, true to form, is forging ahead.
Bannon's adviser Jason Miller confirmed on Steve Bannon's podcast that the big announcement the former president plans to make Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago will be the launch of a new campaign for president, even before the election process is complete. midterm elections.
Trump's recent rallies suggest he is only doubling down on his lies about voter fraud, even though they were rejected by voters in this November's election.
One novelty is that there may be alternatives to Trump in the Republican Party.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, for example, showed that he knows how to build a solid majority with his resounding re-election victory.
In 2021, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia won the governorship in a state Biden had won by 10 points the year before.
Trump, for his part, has not won an election since 2016. Logically, and while the Republicans try to attract the national electorate in 2024, there are better options than Trump.
But the former president retains emotional control over the party bases that will decide the candidate.
And Tuesday's launch, and its immediate aftermath, will offer the first clues as to whether the astonishing resistance to scandal that would have doomed ordinary political careers to failure is beginning to wear off.
midterm elections
