Mohammed Wang, born November 15 in Delhi: Meet the eight billionth person
Created: 2022-11-15 07:34
By: Luisa Billmayer, Marie Ries
One birth will break the eight billion mark these days.
©PantherMedia
The United Nations has calculated that the eight billionth person will be born in autumn 2022.
We analyzed what characteristics this baby has when it comes to statistics alone.
On November 15th the world population will reach the eight billion mark.
On this occasion, we dare to play a mind game using global data and probabilities.
What will the eight billionth baby be called, where will it be born, what is its religion?
There are always slightly more boys born than girls
In this mind game we introduce a
boy
.
Because it's a little bit more likely that the eight billionth person is male.
According to a UN database, 101 boys are born for every 100 girls.
Our little boy's parents will most likely name him Mohammed.
Because this is by far the most common male name in the world.
113 million people bear the name
Mohammed
.
We summarize here the other spellings Muhammad, Mohamed and Mohammad of the Arabic name.
The basis is extrapolated data from the Forebears Names platform.
If we continue to follow our train of thought, little Mohammed's last name is
Wang
.
This Chinese surname is the most common in the world at around 107 million.
If our eight billionth person were female, the girl would be called Maria.
China is the most populous country, but most children are born in India
Gender and name have already been clarified.
But where will little Mohammed be born?
With over 1.4 billion inhabitants, China is the most populous country.
However, most children are born in India.
We therefore assume that our Mohammed is one of the 23 million babies to be born in
India
in 2022 .
With a rate of 6.75, however, most children are born per woman in Niger.
In contrast, the city-state of Hong Kong has the lowest birth rate in the world at 0.76 children per woman.
Our little Mohammed will most likely be born in
Delhi
.
According to UN calculations, more than 30 million people live in India's largest city - and the trend is rising.
More currently live only in Tokyo.
However, according to the UN, Delhi should overtake the 37 million metropolis by 2030.
But back to Mohammed: His parents should have him baptized in the course of his life, because
Christianity
is the most widespread religion at 32 percent.
This is the finding of the Pew Research Center in a 2012 study.
Although almost half of the women use contraception, Mohammed was born
According to the UN, in 2020 almost half of 15 to 49-year-old women and girls were using contraceptives.
Nevertheless, in our mind game, Muhammad's mother became pregnant and gave birth to her baby through
natural childbirth
.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the rate of caesarean sections is only 21 percent.
According to the logic in this article, Muhammad's mother is
28 years old
.
According to UN statistics, Mohammed already has a sibling or is about to have one.
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Our Mohammed has a long life ahead of him.
As a baby born in 2022, the UN
predicts a life expectancy of
69 years .
If he were a girl, the expectation would be even higher at 74 years old.
Life expectancy worldwide has increased significantly in recent decades.
A baby born in 1950 died after an average of 47 years.
The UN calculates that in the year 2100 the world population will be 82 years old on average.
Of course, it is not certain whether the many characteristics of our eight billionth person actually apply.
It could also be a Nigerian girl being raised Muslim.
Or it could be a little boy born in the rubble of the Ukraine war.
However, the thought game about our Mohammed is based on probabilities and thus shows how complex the population of our planet will be in the year 2022.
Transparency: Our data, sources and methods
We used the following sources for our analysis: United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects 2022 and World Urbanization Prospects 2018, Forebears Name Database, Pew Research Center: The Global Religious Landscape, WHO: Caesarean section rates continue to rise, amid growing inequalities in access, UN: World Family Planning 2020 Highlights.
The UN database World Population Prospects includes numbers from 1950 to 2100, so it contains both historical values and forecasts.
Therefore, the data set also includes values for 2022 and the future up to 2100.