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A curtsey, but no gas from Qatar:
Robert Habeck
's visit to Doha in the spring did not help.
Qatar (pictured Trade Minister Al Thani) has other priorities than helping Germany in the short term
Photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka / dpa
When Economics Minister
Robert Habeck
(53) traveled to Doha in the spring and shortly thereafter announced an "energy partnership" with the emirate, he hoped to have found a solution for Germany's energy supply.
As a substitute for Russian natural gas, Habeck wanted to import as much liquefied natural gas (LNG) as possible from the desert state and the USA.
The construction of four LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel, Stade and Lubmin is in full swing.
The small emirate of Qatar is one of the five largest natural gas producers in the world after the USA, Russia, China and Iran.
The German hope: A deal would offer the Qataris an opportunity to win new customers in Europe and polish its image as a helper in need.
But far from it.
Qatar has other priorities than jumping to Germany's side in the short term.
The emirate's profits from gas exports have already exploded as a result of the war in Ukraine, but there are things Qatar cares about even more than short-term profit: long-term profit and long-term dependencies.
A broken deal and an end to the pleasantries
That means: Germany will only get liquefied natural gas from Qatar if the Federal Republic commits to buying the natural gas for a period of 20 years.
According to information from the business portal Bloomberg, the desert state also wants to prohibit its partner Germany from reselling excess LNG to other states or from canceling deliveries.
For Habeck, the offer from Qatar was unacceptable: "The Qataris have decided not to make a good offer," said the German Economics and Energy Minister in the summer.
So Germany gets nothing.
German climate goals cannot be achieved with Qatar's long-term agreements
Instead of to Germany, Qatar is now delivering the coveted liquefied natural gas to Italy, which has long been connected to the emirate via the state-owned energy company Eni and is apparently also prepared to accept the Qataris' conditions.
Qatar is using the approaching World Cup as an opportunity to present itself as a cosmopolitan host.
But when it comes to gas and business, the fun stops for the Qataris.
The tough stance of the ruling Al Thani family, which runs Qatar like a family company, puts Germany in a dilemma.
On the one hand, the Federal Republic of Germany is urgently dependent on additional LNG deliveries in the coming years in order to secure the energy supply for companies and citizens.
On the other hand, the federal government is pursuing the goal of replacing fossil energies sooner rather than later with sustainable energies such as sun, water and wind and thus becoming less dependent on energy imports.
If Germany undertakes to buy large quantities of liquefied gas from Qatar over a period of 20 years, neither the desired energy transition will succeed nor does Germany have a chance of achieving the climate goals that have been set.
That's the government's logic.
Qatar is investing billions in expanding production - and therefore wants to retain gas customers for decades
Qatar's strategy is fundamentally different.
The profits from gas exports are so breathtaking that the desert state has decided to exploit the world's largest gas field "North Field" even more than originally planned.
A moratorium intended to limit gas production was quickly lifted by the ruling family.
Instead, Qatar is now planning to expand production with the "North Field East" expansion project.
According to the operating companies Qatargas and Qatarenenergy, the project is intended to increase Qatar's LNG production by around 40 percent, from the current 78 million tons to 110 million tons of LNG in the future.
The expansion is expected to cost about $30 billion.
And the desert state wants to get these billions back from its customers with the help of long-term supply contracts – including a big return on the investment.
From Qatar's point of view, this strategy makes sense as long as there are enough customers vying for the liquefied natural gas from the desert state.
"The EU countries enter into a bidding war and outbid each other with the prices - that's clumsy at best," criticized the head of the European People's Party,
Manfred Weber
(50).
Qatar's Energy Minister
Saad al-Kaabi
(55) naturally sees things differently: he threatened the Europeans that he would stop supplying gas in the future if the EU implemented its plans for a common gas price cap.
"The free market is always the best solution," commented al-Kaabi.
Qatar's demand for 20-year supply contracts and another unregulated game on the energy markets is incompatible with the German concept of a safe and clean energy supply.
The contracts between Germany and the USA, which have now become the world's largest LNG exporter, are long-term.
According to information from Bloomberg, however, the US contracts allow more flexibility, such as the resale of liquefied natural gas to third countries and the option to cancel individual deliveries for a fee.
Italy participates, Germany continues to search
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Qatar's Emir
Hamad Al Thani
: Lock-in strategy for European gas customers
Photo: Abaca Bisson 123622/ picture alliance/ dpa
With a per capita income of $85,000 a year, Qatar is one of the richest countries in the world.
Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine makes Qatar even richer.
Oil has lost its importance for Qatar, but gas is supposed to guarantee the exuberant wealth of the state with 2.7 million inhabitants (90 percent of them guest workers) for many years to come.
Emir
Hamad Al Thani
(70) sees his country in a position of strength in the long term: thanks to LNG technology, Qatar can market its natural gas worldwide – that means highest bidder – and, unlike Russia, is not dependent on pipelines.
Should Russia completely bid farewell as an energy supplier, the demand for LNG imports to Europe is likely to remain high until 2030.
Nevertheless, it is not very tempting for Germany to make itself dependent on a new, autocratically governed state for the next 20 years.
Italy, on the other hand, is pursuing a different strategy than its German neighbor: the state energy supplier Eni has already participated in the "North Field East" gas production project.
