The moderates have won the midterm elections in the United States

It's unclear who will control Congress after last Tuesday's midterm elections, but two things are: moderation can pay big electoral dividends, and Donald Trump has become an electoral drag on the Republican Party.

It is true that many extremist candidates have just been elected.

According to

, more than 200 Republican candidates who denied the results of the 2020 election or thought to have defeated on Tuesday.

In too many states there are too many voters who are not sickened enough by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement's attacks on election integrity to make sure these deniers get into office.

It is clear that extremist candidates who question the democratic institutions of the United States retain some electoral chance.

But in virtually every state where voters had multiple Republican candidates for state office, the most moderate candidate got the most votes.

The “spread vote” has been declining for decades.

As American politics has polarized, fewer voters are willing to support a Republican for one office and a Democrat for another.

But now it seems that the trend is reversing.

Last Tuesday, a significant number of voters spread their votes, that is, they supported the Republicans who have kept a certain distance from Trump and punished those who have flirted with the MAGA movement.

Trump's base still firmly controls certain sectors of the Republican Party.

But the extremism of many of his candidates — as well as the moderation of some Democrats in especially important disputes — has been one of the main reasons why the predicted “red wave” has not happened.

An example is Georgia.

Brian Kemp, the incumbent Republican governor, who is running for re-election, bravely resisted pressure to reject the state's 2020 election results. He survived furious attacks by Trump and a primary with a serious rival who, at times, It seemed that he was going to succeed.

Kemp's reward has been an unequivocal victory over his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams.

Instead, Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate candidate, won his primary with strong support from Trump.

And when he did get a chance to talk about anything other than his personal scandals, it was to repeat the MAGA movement conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Walker will have another shot at the seat in a second run. lap.

But he's fared far worse than Kemp, as he's polled about 200,000 fewer votes and trailed his Democratic opponent, Raphael Warnock, by a narrow margin.

The same contrast has been even more striking in Pennsylvania.

Mehmet Oz, the Republican candidate for Senate, and Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor, had Trump's support and lost.

But Oz, presenting himself as a more mainstream conservative more focused on economic issues, lost to progressive Democrat John Fetterman by only about three points.

Mastriano, a staunch member of the MAGA movement, who participated in the pro-Trump rally on January 6, 2021, lost by 13 points to moderate Democrat Josh Shapiro.

The spread vote has gained momentum above all because of the stark contrasts between some Republican candidates and others, such as Brian Kemp and Herschel Walker.

But other, more subtle differences in the profile of Democratic candidates, such as Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams, may also have played a role.

Warnock has consistently supported the policies of the Joe Biden government and defends the rights of minority groups.

But he has managed to combine those commitments with an emphasis on moderation and an approach to traditional Republicans.

He is a former pastor, likes to talk about his religious faith and has worked to win over centrist white voters in suburban Atlanta.

He has even filmed popcorn ads, like one in which he appears at a peanut farm while bragging about the legislative accomplishments he's made by getting the two parties to work together.

Abrams followed a very different strategy.

A firm believer in identity politics for the Democratic Party to win elections, given the increasing percentage of non-white voters, he ran on a platform far to the left of Warnock.

When polls suggested he was weakening support for him among Georgia's black men, he dismissed the idea that his strategy might have riled a traditionally Democratic but socially moderate demographic.

Instead, he blamed his problems on the fact that he is a sector of the population very vulnerable to propaganda: "Unfortunately, this year, black men have been a population very attacked by disinformation."

Democrats who have paid more attention to the economy, moving away from the progressive wing of the party and moving closer to traditional Republican voters have done well in other states as well.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan failed to beat JD Vance, but fared much better than other Democratic candidates running in that state.

Similarly, in Wisconsin, Tony Evers, the incumbent Democratic governor, beat out more progressive candidates such as Senate hopeful Mandela Barnes to win re-election, albeit narrowly.

“Over the past four years, I have worked hard to keep [my] promises,” he said, stressing his moderate credentials.

“Some call me boring, but you know what, Wisconsin?

It turns out that boring wins.

David French, one of the leading anti-Trump conservatives (and a contributor to

), has summed up a crucial lesson from Tuesday's election.

"Turns out the Republican base," he tweeted, "needed some of those people he's been making fun of, who he's scorned and bullied out of the party."

Ultimately, the more Republican candidates align with the MAGA movement, the worse they fare, overall.

The problem is, of course, that the activist wing of the Republican Party is perhaps too fascinated by Trump to learn the lesson.

As unpopular as they are in the country as a whole, the extremist candidates who fared poorly in this election can still count on fanatic support within a large Republican primary voting bloc.

The rise in the split vote shows that Americans have a real preference for moderates when they can vote for them.

But the system that the two major parties use to choose their candidates can ensure that option does not appear on the ballot when it matters most, in November 2024.

The midterm elections have delivered a clear message to both Democrats and Republicans.

To have the best chance of winning the White House in 2024, you have to choose a moderate candidate who is capable of reaching beyond the party base.

If both parties learn their lesson, we may be in for a less polarized and dangerous era in American politics.

If you only learn it for one of the matches, you will have a huge advantage.

If neither party learns it, anything is possible, including a second term for Donald Trump.

Yascha Mounk

is visiting professor at St. Antony's College, Oxford and author of

Them Work (Paidós).

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