The Iranian decision to attack the "Zircon" oil tanker, which is partially owned by the Israeli businessman Idan Ofer, raises two quick, seemingly contradictory insights: the first, that Iran is in distress, and needs operational achievements.
The second, that her self-confidence is high, and she is convinced that she will not pay a price for her actions.
In Israel yesterday it was difficult to pinpoint the direct motive for the attack.
This could have been revenge for the attack last week attributed to the Air Force, in which arms smuggling was thwarted and oil tankers were also damaged on the Syria-Iraq border.
It could also be the continuation of Iran's efforts to take revenge for a series of actions attributed to Israel on its soil, in an attempt to create a balance of deterrence that will deter it from similar actions in the future.
And it is also possible that this is related to the World Cup, an attempt to instill fear in the Israeli football fans and prevent some of them from coming to Qatar, thus harming the efforts to bring Jerusalem and Doha closer together.
This was the 11th attack attributed to Iran against marine platforms in the Persian Gulf since 2016. Some of them were directed against Israeli-owned ships, in order to take revenge for actions attributed to Israel against Iranian ships or efforts to smuggle Iranian oil to Syria and Lebanon.
The worst attack in this sequence was carried out in July 2021 on the ship "Mercer Street", which was owned by a foreign company belonging to businessman Eyal Ofer, Idan's brother.
A UAV that exploded on the deck bridge killed two sailors with European citizenship - a Romanian captain and a British security guard - and led to sharp criticism of Tehran, which has since frozen its offensive activity in the Gulf.
11 attacks in the Persian Gulf attributed to Iran since 2016 (archive), photo: E.P.
Now Iran has decided to return to this method of operation.
It is likely that, as in the previous cases, the person responsible for launching the attacking drone is the Revolutionary Guards Air Force, under the command of Amir Ali Hajizadeh, one of the dominant factors in Iran today, and who holds a lot of power in his hands since the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani. In all cases In the latter, an identical UAV of the Shahad 136 model was activated, although it seems that in yesterday's attack the UAV was not armed or an extremely small explosive warhead was used, in order to be satisfied with signaling and avoid significant damage.
In Israel yesterday they tried to leverage this attack into a diplomatic-informational campaign against Tehran.
As expected, the use of the same drone that Iran supplies to Moscow in its war in Ukraine was highlighted, as well as what was defined as an "Iranian effort to sabotage the World Cup". From past experience, it is doubtful whether this event will succeed in generating negative momentum towards Tehran, which is already suffering from severe international criticism on the background The events that began with the death of the young woman Maisa Amini and developed into the "hijab protest" that has been challenging the authorities in Tehran for more than two months.
new friends
Iran's nationalistic mindset should worry Israel greatly.
He relies on a number of reasons, the main ones being American weakness (which is demonstrated by Washington's eagerness to return to the nuclear agreement), and the axis forged by Iran with Russia and China, which places it in a stronger position than before.
For the first time, it finds itself today not in a dependent position vis-a-vis Moscow, but managing mutual interests, which it will try to leverage for future achievements in Syria and other sectors.
Iran uses the self-confidence gained as a result to intensify its attempts to attack Israel.
This is true in the non-stop smuggling efforts of Amalah to Syria and Lebanon, and it is true in the non-stop attack efforts against Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
The Iranians feel secure following the political rapprochement with Russia (for illustration), photo: West Asia News Agency
Although it failed (and was embarrassed) in Istanbul last summer, Iran tried (and failed and was embarrassed again) this week in Georgia.
The lesson is clear: Iran will continue to try, almost everywhere and at any time, which requires Israel for a broad and complex intelligence and security effort.
This effort does not include protecting the economic interests of Israeli citizens, certainly not those that operate in foreign countries and under a foreign flag - such as the ship that was attacked yesterday.
Despite this, this attack should also be seen not as an attack on an economic company owned by an Israeli citizen, but as an attack on the State of Israel.
This attack was indeed a failure, but despite this it shows more than anything that there is no and will not be calm in front of Iran.
Israel will be forced to continue to act in the future against Iranian interests on Iranian soil and around the world in order to deter and exact a price.
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