The outgoing president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was largely re-elected on Sunday, according to provisional results, at the head of the largest country in Central Asia which has lived through a dark year between bloody riots and ruthless clan struggle.
According to an exit poll for state radio and television, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won 82.45% of the vote in this former Soviet republic where 69.43% of the 12 million voters voted , according to the first estimates of the Electoral Commission.
The dolphin of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is none other than the vote "
against all
", credited with 5.2% of the votes according to this poll, while no other candidate exceeds 3.33%.
Riots brutally suppressed
Rich in natural resources and located at the crossroads of important trade routes, Kazakhstan descended into chaos in January when protests against high prices escalated into riots, only to be brutally put down.
Balance sheet: 238 dead.
The country remains traumatized by this crisis and, a sign that tensions persist, the authorities announced on Thursday that they had arrested seven supporters of an opponent in exile accused of fomenting a "
coup d'etat
".
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This early election was for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, 69, a way to consolidate his power.
This trained diplomat has transformed this year into an implacable leader, firing on rioters in January, arresting relatives of his predecessor and mentor Nursultan Nazarbayev, then standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
'
No monopoly
'
Came to power in 2019 after the surprise resignation of the omnipotent Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev officially undertook to cut the cord in favor of the January crisis after having long been considered the henchman of his predecessor.
This election is part of the long tradition of polls decided in advance in Kazakhstan, like previous presidential elections: 71% of the votes for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2019 and 98% in 2015 for Nursultan Nazarbayev.
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Despite the posters calling on voters to "
make their choice
" for the next seven years, the five opponents of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acted as foils.
In Astana and Almaty, the two largest cities in the country, AFP saw several voters take pictures of themselves outside polling stations, many voters citing the "
obligation
" to show the photo to their employer on Monday.
Fifteen people demonstrated in Almaty to demand free elections and were all arrested by the police, AFP noted.
A “
New Kazakhstan
”
This election aims to turn the page of a difficult year, but also to consecrate the reign of President Tokayev, who has been trying for months to reduce the influence of the Nazarbayev clan.
"
The main thing is that there is no monopoly in power
," said Kassym-Jomart Tokayev after voting, while Kazakhstan was ruled for three decades by Nazarbayev.
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President Tokayev campaigned on his project to create a more democratic and less unequal “
New Kazakhstan
”.
But economic difficulties persist, as do authoritarian reflexes.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the social tensions, at the origin of the January demonstrations in Kazakhstan, could reappear in particular because of the global economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, while Kazakhstan is very economically dependent on Russia.
Closer relationship with China and Europe
Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kassym-Jomart Tokaev has been trying to strengthen ties with China, but also with Europe as a counterweight to Russian influence.
In recent months, he has received visits from Russian, Turkish and Chinese heads of state as well as senior European officials, and even Pope Francis.
And promises of democratic openness and economic reform are resonating with the electorate.
Like Amina Aïtjanova, a 46-year-old professor, who believes that President Tokayev “
managed the situation extremely well
” after the events of January.
Read alsoKazakhstan wants to thwart a Ukrainian scenario
But this election, which is supposed to open the era of “
New Kazakhstan
”, gives a feeling of deja-vu, with a deserted political landscape, a façade of opposition and pressure from the authorities.
Enough to leave many disillusioned Kazakhs, like Alia Bokechova, a 19-year-old student in Astana.
"
It's a waste of time, we already know who will win
," she told AFP.
Before the election, international election observers from the OSCE regretted that their recommendations “
relating to fundamental freedoms and the conditions of eligibility and registration of candidates
” had “
remained unaddressed
”.