THE ELN that will sit at the table with the Government of Petro

Return to freedom of two soldiers who had been in the hands of the ELN since the beginning of November, in Tame, on November 16, 2022.

This Monday, when peace negotiations resume with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the last armed guerrilla in Colombia, in Arauca, Chocó and Catatumbo, thousands of peasants will hope that these meetings will reduce the violence they experience in their territories.

They will also advocate that this time peace be made with this group, the one that has had the most attempts at dialogue with different governments in its history.

And lastly, that the negotiations do not go on forever, as has also happened on other occasions with that guerrilla.

As different analysts of the armed conflict have explained, negotiating with the ELN has always been difficult.

Andrés Aponte, editor of the book

, from the Center for Popular Research and Education, Cinep, said in an interview with EL PAÍS that it is an insurgency "that has no problem talking, but it does have a problem negotiating."

The group that will sit at the table with the government of President Gustavo Petro is a guerrilla that does not seek to take power directly.

Tomorrow's is the sixth attempt at dialogue after the last attempt failed when the guerrillas planted a car bomb that left 23 police cadets dead.

The ELN is a guerrilla group with Catholic roots, founded in 1964 and inspired by the Cuban revolution.

However, it has undergone mutations over the years and today it is difficult to classify.

The old command has been replaced by middle cadres that respond to the territories and are more pragmatic and with fewer restrictions to participate in illegal economies and although it strengthened its presence in places where the FARC previously dominated, it is a strategically defeated guerrilla.

According to the latest figures from the Army, in 2021 it had 2,350 combatants and a presence in regions such as Catatumbo and Arauca, in the northeast of the country;

as well as in Nariño and Chocó, to the west.

But it also has a presence in Venezuela.

The third report of the United Nations mission stated that, by 2018, it had a presence in 12 of the 23 states of the country.

The document, revealed at the end of September, also indicated that this guerrilla reached agreements with Venezuelan state authorities to control mining resources and is also linked to the exploitation of gold, diamonds and coltan.

Hence the importance of Petro having invited Nicolás Maduro to play a guarantor role at the table.

This binational guerrilla character, about which there is no consensus among analysts, would be key in the development of this new dialogue table.

It is not yet clear if Caracas will be the permanent venue, but it is clear for the first cycle of talks.

Members of the delegation traveled this weekend for them, which is expected to last at least a month.

Regarding the role of Maduro, the high commissioner for peace, Danilo Rueda, told this newspaper that the Venezuelan president “has been transparent, assertive and consistent with what is stated in the protocols.

We have not observed any type of interference or advantages, and in that sense we highly value what has happened so far”.

The expectations of the ELN negotiators are not rosy regarding the speed of the dialogues.

Antonio García, commander of the ELN, has said through his Twitter account that they have some reservations that "can only be the subject of discussion at the Table."

He refers to issues such as total peace, the Petro government's proposal to negotiate in parallel with the country's organized crime organizations.

In an interview with the Corporación Nuevo Arcoiris earlier this month, García had criticized the government's land negotiations with the president of the National Cattlemen's Federation, Fedegán, Jose Félix Lafaurie.

Now, the rancher who did not support the previous peace process with the extinct FARC will be one of the government's negotiators with the ELN.

The ELN commander has also said that an eventual multilateral ceasefire should be discussed at the table and that they have questions regarding the demobilization and disarmament schemes, which he considers remain the same.

In addition, that the participation of society in this process "cannot be in 'express mode'."

Therein lies one of the main challenges for this process.

According to Carlos Velandia, a former member of the ELN's national leadership and now a researcher on peace issues: "The difficult thing for the ELN is not to dialogue, the difficult thing is to reach an agreement."

Velandia explained to EL PAÍS that “for them, dialogue is the way to establish a political conversation to find solutions to the country's problems for which they just took up arms.

They do not conceive of dialogue to put an end to the war or lay down their arms, but rather to resolve the great difficulties that the regions are experiencing”.

The ELN is also recognized as a federated guerrilla.

"This does not mean that it is without unity or fragmented, but rather that each front can question the command on issues related to war, peace and the distribution of resources," analyst Aponte explained to this newspaper a few months ago.

He pointed out that it is not like the FARC, which was a guerrilla of settler peasants from the periphery of the Central Andean world that is expanding towards the most integrated areas to which rural development projects and seats (seats) in Congress can be offered to their leaders. .

Rather, "it is a confederation of different regional groups, which represent problems specific to their regions."

According to the Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), the ELN's confrontation with the public forces has reduced, but the same has not happened between the ELN and the FARC dissidents.

This has happened, for example, in Arauca, where peace seems far away.

"Yes, there has been a large reduction in actions from the State against these groups and from them against the State, but on the other hand, an 80 percent increase in confrontations between armed groups," said María Victoria Llorente, director of FIP .

The Catholic Church, which will participate in the peace negotiations as a facilitator, has said that the first phase of this table will have to focus on humanitarian issues.

Monsignor Fabio Henao, representative of that Church, will take that message to the Table.

“There is a very complex situation in many regions where confrontations are taking place between different groups for territorial control.

The negotiating table must address the relief of humanitarian situations as an urgent issue, ”he said on Friday, hours before traveling to Caracas.

Monsignor Juan Carlos Barreto, who was bishop of Quibdó, says that the guerrilla's respect for International Humanitarian Law will be the oxygen at the negotiating table.

“That is where it starts and with the multilateral ceasefire.

We need to stop the war to start building peace."

After the multiple attempts to negotiate with the ELN, this will be the first time that it has negotiated with a leftist government.

Analysts point out that now it will be more difficult for him to make excuses, because Petro's victory shows that his armed path is obsolete.

For the IFJ, the challenge for the Government will be to convince the different sectors of the ELN that it should take advantage of this opportunity, but it starts with the advantage that it will sit with "a group that is politically weakened due to its inability to influence social mobilizations of importance and for lacking a military muscle that could seriously challenge the State”.

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