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Can Xi Jinping's meeting with Fumio Kishida save the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations?

2022-11-21T04:14:05.387Z


On November 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Bangkok, Thailand, preparing to attend the 29th APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, and met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the same day. From Japan's point of view


On November 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Bangkok, Thailand, preparing to attend the 29th APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, and met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the same day.

From Japan's point of view, this is the first face-to-face meeting between Fumio Kishida and the top Chinese leader since he came to power. Shinzo Abe, who participated in the meeting before, has passed away, and Yoshihide Suga failed to survive the political storm caused by the epidemic. Now that the leaders of the two sides meet again, Fumio Kishida is in charge of Japan, but it is still difficult to stop the turmoil in Sino-Japanese relations.

A closer look at the conversation between Xi Jinping and Fumio Kishida is full of questions about how to move forward in Sino-Japanese relations.

Xi Jinping pointed out that this year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. "The importance of China-Japan relations has not changed and will not change. China is willing to work with Japan to grasp the general direction of bilateral relations from a strategic height and build a China-Japan relations as required by China and Japan”; Xi Jinping even emphasized that the two sides should abide by the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan, and embody the political consensus of “mutually being cooperative partners and not posing mutual threats” to policies.

"Major issues of principle such as history and Taiwan involve the political foundation and basic faith of the relationship between the two countries, and must be kept and properly handled."

China does not interfere in other countries' internal affairs, nor does it accept anyone's interference in China's internal affairs under any pretext.

Kishida Fumio said that as close neighbors, China and Japan do not pose a threat to each other, and they need and should coexist peacefully.

Japan's development and prosperity cannot be separated from China, and vice versa. Japan-China cooperation has great potential. The two countries bear important responsibilities for regional and global peace and prosperity. Japan is willing to work together with China to achieve a healthy and stable Japan-China relationship. develop.

"On the Taiwan issue, Japan's commitments made in the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement have not changed at all."

However, under the seemingly peaceful dialogue between the two sides, the countercurrent of contradictions is still sneaking.

On the evening of November 17 local time, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Bangkok, Thailand.

(Xinhua News Agency)

Why Sino-Japanese relations are becoming more and more frictional

Looking back at the 1970s, when diplomatic relations between the two countries were normalized, peaceful cooperation was indeed the main theme of Sino-Japanese interactions. However, after the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, Japan’s national strategy underwent a drastic transformation. Although Sino-Japanese cooperation was deepening, conflicts also grew simultaneously.

The long-term cause of the transformation is not only the national complex caused by economic ups and downs, but also the changes in the regional situation driven by the game between China and the United States.

At the beginning of the end of World War II, "anti-war and peace" was once the imprint of a generation of Japanese thoughts. However, since the 1980s, with the rapid development of the national economy, Japanese social and political thoughts are no longer limited by the word "reflection". Yasuhiro Nakasone The slogans of "post-war political final accounts" and "international state" during the period heralded the rise of the trend of great-nation chauvinism.

After the end of the Cold War, the atmosphere of "farewell to the post-war" began to pervade Japanese society; at the same time, the Japanese bubble economy collapsed in the 1990s, and the "Heisei Depression" followed one after another. Japan's self-confidence as an "economic power" was affected. Expectations of a "political power" are rising.

When the Gulf War broke out in 1991, Japanese right-wing forces put forward narratives such as "military power, despite its limitations, is irreplaceable by economic power" and "the end of the Cold War may not guarantee the arrival of peace", in order to protect Japan's military expansion Escort; In May 1993, Ichiro Ozawa, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, even shouted the slogan of "normal country", which became the political goal of today's constitutional revision forces.

Looking at the trend of thought in Japan in the 1990s, the right-wing forces in the political arena surged and continued to compete with those who held an anti-war stance. In the face of the "Kono Statement" in 1993 and the "Murayama Statement" in 1995, respectively, the forced recruitment of comfort women during World War II and the colonization of Asia Expressing self-reflection on this matter, the right wing issued fierce criticism, and published the book "Summary of the Great East Asian War" in 1995, denying the aggressive nature of Japan's war, which caused back and forth discord among Chinese and Japanese intellectuals.

After Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time in 2012, he even intended to revise the above two speeches, but finally gave up due to constant disputes. However, calls for constitutional revision in the political arena are still increasing year by year.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated on July 21, 2019 that the ruling coalition has become a majority in the Senate, representing voters agreeing to the constitutional amendment proposal.

(AP)

In the field of international relations, the game between China and the United States has gradually become a new melody of international relations since 2000, and Japan has also begun its strategic approach to "democracies" under the mobilization of the United States.

After Koizumi Junichiro took office in 2001, he proposed that "democratic countries" such as India, Australia, and New Zealand should be included in the "East Asia Summit" to hedge against China's strategic influence; "Icebreaking Journey" to improve relations with China, but at the same time proposed the strategic concept of "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity", intended to deepen strategic ties with India and Australia, and also proposed "value diplomacy", emphasizing that Japan should share "democracy" with values ​​of the country to strengthen cooperation.

Combining the "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity", "Values ​​Diplomacy" and geopolitics, it can be observed that Japan has gradually deepened its strategic interaction with ASEAN, India, and Australia around the edge of the Indo-Pacific region, and excluded China from the "freedom" Arc to Prosperity” and “Values ​​Diplomacy” are outside the scope of application, with a certain degree of pertinence.

And Abe’s move is not just an isolated case in history. Since then, except for the two cabinets of the Liberal Democratic Party’s Fukuda Yasuo and the Democratic Party’s Hatoyama Yukio, all previous Japanese governments have basically inherited the foreign policy of the Koizumi and Abe cabinets.

In October 2008, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Japan, and the two sides signed the "Japan-India Security Joint Declaration", which was a further step of the Japanese government after the Abe government signed a security joint declaration with Australia, marking the "road of freedom and prosperity". The continuation of the idea of ​​the arc.

In 2012, when Abe came to power for the second time, this proposition was strengthened.

On December 1, 2021, an image of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was seen on a projection screen at a conference in Taipei.

Shinzo Abe has warned that any military action by China against Taiwan would have serious security and economic consequences.

(AP)

Sino-Japanese relations are increasingly moving toward strategic competition

To sum up, the difference between China and Japan today is due to Japan’s strong dissatisfaction with the post-war order, coupled with the rising trend of Sino-US competition, Japan began to seek strategic opportunities to get rid of the pacifist constitution.

In this atmosphere, the "cold politics and hot economy" of Sino-Japanese relations have become more and more obvious: Although the two countries can cooperate in the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) and other economic and trade fields, they cannot bridge the contradictions related to political and security issues , whether it is the Diaoyu Islands, the Yasukuni Shrine or the Taiwan Strait.

In 2010, Japan seized Chinese fishermen and fishing boats in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands. In 2012, the Democratic Party’s Yoshihiko Noda government announced the “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands. In November 2013, China established the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone. Visit the Yasukuni Shrine; In April 2021, the leaders of Japan and the United States issued a joint statement expressing concern about the "peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait." Since Sato and Richard Nixon issued the "Japan-US Joint Statement" in 1969, The so-called "Taiwan clause" appeared for the first time in the joint statement of the Japan-US summit meeting.

In short, in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, Japan’s national strategic perspective has undergone significant changes, with more emphasis on the Japan-US alliance, the lifting of the defense policy, and the acquisition of international power.

Even though the leaders of China and Japan emphasized at this meeting that "abide by the four political documents between China and Japan" is of the utmost importance and that "the commitments made by the Japanese side in the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement have not changed in the slightest", the evolution of Japan's national strategy Still in progress.

Under this structural trend, Sino-Japanese relations are bound to be different from those in the 1970s, and the strategic competition situation is reflected from the following three levels.

On November 18, 2022, a group of national leaders or high-level government leaders attending the APEC meeting took a photo at the meeting, including U.S. Vice President He Jinli, third from the right, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, third from the left, Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-soo, second from the right, and Australian Prime Minister Albanese on the first, New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern on the right, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the second from the left.

(AP)

First, the Japanese and American security systems have been strengthened.

Since the mid-to-late 1990s, the Japan-US alliance has been strengthened, and the direction of military cooperation between the two sides has gradually expanded from "things to do in Japan" to "things to do in the surrounding area." Fortification" construction.

Under this trend, the conflicts between China and Japan over the East China Sea and the Taiwan issue continued to rise, and the Japan-US security system also had strategic conflicts with "China-Japan friendship and cooperation."

Second, the proportion of "China threat" in Japan's foreign security strategy has increased.

For example, the 2022 edition of Japan's "Diplomatic Blue Book" includes the term "China Threat", which is based on reasons other than the increase in China's defense spending and the South China Sea dispute that has lasted for many years. Stakeholders in the South China Sea” and “China’s opaque expansion of military power combined with unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea and South China Sea and the expansion of military activities have become the object of strong security concerns in the region and the international community, including Japan. ".

Third, Japan's new security strategy has a clear orientation of "regional unity but exclusion of China".

From the "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" to the "Quadrulateral Mechanism" (QUAD) of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, Japan is gradually expanding its strategic presence in regional security mechanisms based on the framework of the Japan-US alliance.

The 2022 edition of Japan's "Blue Book on Diplomacy" mentions that Japan will "strengthen solidarity with partners who share universal values, and lead the international community to resist attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by relying on force."

In the final analysis, since the end of the Cold War, Japan's strategic framework for becoming a "political power" has become more and more clear. Its perception of the surrounding situation has gradually become more realistic, and its emphasis on national power has gradually focused on the security field. The game situation breaks through the heavy shackles of the peaceful constitution.

The short-term trend of this era is difficult and difficult. Even if the meeting between the leaders of China and Japan helps the two sides communicate and control some strategic risks, friction between the two countries will still be the norm in the future.

Why did Japan's national strategy change after the end of the Cold War?

Economic growth makes it aspire to become a political power, and the Sino-US game makes it see an opportunity to break through the pacifist constitution.

What are the three characteristics of Japan's strategy toward China in the new era?

Emphasize the role of the Japanese and American security systems, the threat of China is gradually playing a role in their strategic planning, and establish a regional security mechanism with neighboring countries that excludes China

China and Japan Reach 5-Point Consensus on Stability and Development of Bilateral Relations Abe’s State Funeral and the 50th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations Between China and Japan: The Era Game of Pacifism and Constitutional Revision Forces From Shinzo Abe to Fumio Kishida: How did the so-called "U.S. and Japan jointly defend Taiwan" emerge? of?

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-11-21

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