Nicolas Conquer is Franco-American, spokesperson for the Republicans Overseas in France.
FIGAROVOX. - Are the results of the midterms a real defeat for the Republican camp?
Nicholas CONQUER.
–
There were a lot of announcement effects both from the American media and from polling institutes which, for fear of making a mistake, announced a red wave.
Few elements justified it in reality.
In the United States, elections do not change the House of Representatives or the Senate.
In the House of Representatives today there are 220 Republican representatives against 213 Democrats, the exact reverse of the previous congress.
There is always an oscillation, but never a total reversal, even if this election remains a plebiscite about the policy of the president in place.
There were, however, some positive surprises for the Republican camp.
The state of Florida, for example, which was a so-called purple state - that is to say independent and pivotal - has completely turned red, while in 2020 Joe Biden won it by 10 points.
In the same proportions as Governor Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio was re-elected senator for the third time.
Read alsoUnited States: between conservatism and realism, Ron DeSantis has become the new hope of the Republican Party
Indeed, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was triumphantly re-elected with nearly 60% of the vote. What should we remember from his first term?
DeSantis was elected in January 2019. Since 2020, there has been real enthusiasm around the figure of this governor.
During the health crisis, he very firmly opposed the restrictions of the federal state, despite very strong political pressure.
He stood up against mandatory confinements and the vaccination of children.
His political choices have allowed Florida to recover economically: in September 2022, the unemployment rate in Florida was 2.5% compared to 3.5% for the country as a whole.
A few weeks before the midterm election, Hurricane Ian hit the coast.
The death toll reached 107 and authorities said it would take months and more than $50 billion to rebuild the devastated areas.
It is the costliest storm in Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. We remember the criticism of George W. Bush for his handling of Hurricane Katrina in 2016. The Republican president, in a first time, had not traveled to New Orleans to visit the victims.
But had flown over the flooded areas in helicopters.
On the contrary, DeSantis dropped the suit and went into direct contact with the people.
We can recognize his ability to manage crisis situations and build leadership.
DeSantis is part of this populist current and this sovereigntist and protectionist line, "America first", driven by Donald Trump.
Nicholas Conquer
Is Ron Desantis a Trump without the flashes?
DeSantis is part of this populist current and this sovereigntist and protectionist line, "
America first
", driven by Donald Trump.
He won the sympathy of President Trump during his first campaign in 2018. In one of his clips, he could be seen building a cardboard brick wall with one of his children.
This wink earned him the support of Trump.
Today, DeSantis refrains from criticizing the former president.
He continues to share populist themes without being rejected by the
establishment
.
Above all, DeSantis is not an ideologue and does not share Trump's excesses.
Both highly educated and a former athlete, this baseball player is a true tactician.
He understands the realities and adapts to them.
Read alsoRon DeSantis, the other Republican candidate for president
As Trump announced his presidential candidacy, are they now rivals? The former president dubbed DeSantis the nickname “Ron DeSanctimonius” to make fun of his altar boy looks…
This rivalry is staged by the media.
Trump giving nicknames to those who matter in the political debate is more a sign of approval than a disqualification.
DeSantis is not a rival, but rather Trump's heir.
For some Republicans, DeSantis increasingly looks like an ideal alternative, but President Trump does not want to secure his succession now.
He still feels called to lead the country.
Trump's defeat in 2020 could put him out of business and encourage the emergence of a new face.
What is certain is that in view of 2024, the Republicans should not seek to know who will be the best representative of the American right, but who can win the White House.
Another scenario often mentioned would be Trump's candidacy outside the Republican Party.
This is impossible because American electoral law does not allow the emergence of a third party.
Nicholas Conquer
Can we imagine a Trump-DeSantis ticket?
No.
Trump would obviously never agree to be the vice president.
Assuming he's the president and DeSantis the vice president, that's not imaginable either.
For one thing, because they're both from Florida.
On the other hand, because they are on the same political line.
It's not unifying enough.
You have to find a duo that works, as was the case with Obama and Biden.
Another scenario often mentioned would be Trump's candidacy outside the Republican Party.
This is impossible because American electoral law does not allow the emergence of a third party.
