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Show in the desert:
opening ceremony for the soccer World Cup in Qatar
Photo: Mike Egerton / IMAGO / PA Images
The controversial World Cup in Qatar has been running since Sunday.
Probably no World Cup has there been so much criticism beforehand - it began with allegations of corruption surrounding the award, continued with outrage about the date and the exorbitant use of resources in times of climate change and triggered massive protests because of the dramatic circumstances at the World Cup construction sites or the inhuman treatment of homosexuals.
Instead of World Cup fever, the mood in Germany is also rather gloomy: fans showed protest posters during Bundesliga games and called for a boycott of the World Cup.
According to a current online survey commissioned by SPIEGEL, 70 percent of Germans do not want to watch the games.
Only 6.2 million people watched the opening game on Sunday, 40 percent fewer than at the World Cup four years ago.
This mood could also affect the business of sports betting providers.
The industry is actually booming: Year after year, the providers generate new record sums, in betting shops and digitally.
Ten years ago they earned less than two billion euros in Germany, by 2021 it was already 9.4 billion euros.
And one of the most important segments: football.
Bookmakers collect about half of the bets in this area.
"Football is by far the most popular sport," says a spokesman for Tipico, one of the largest providers.
In addition to the sales from the Champions League, Bundesliga or DFB Cup, a World Cup usually provides lucrative additional business.
"A World Cup brings with it a variety of interesting games and a lot of media attention."
It would “address target groups who are not necessarily interested in sport in regular operation”.
Tipico criticizes distraction from sporting topics
This year, however, things could be different.
"This World Cup is different from previous tournaments. On the one hand, the date in late autumn is an absolute novelty and on the other hand, the public debate is extremely controversial," says Tipico.
"It is therefore difficult to make an economic forecast based on our current models."
The German Sports Betting Association (DSWV) also emphasizes how lucrative major events in particular are for the industry.
A WM usually generates a turnover like a 13th month's salary.
"This year, too, we are expecting an increase in the number of bets relating to the World Cup games," it said.
However, it is difficult to say whether the very first Winter World Cup, which will also be held in the run-up to Christmas, will inspire as many people as usual.
"In Germany that certainly depends a lot on the performance of the German national team."
It also remains to be seen whether and how the criticism of the World Cup venue will affect it.
"FIFA has decided to hold the World Cup in Qatar. We can understand the widespread criticism of this decision and would like to see major tournaments in the future being held in countries with a long football tradition," said the association.
Inflation and the energy crisis do not curb the desire to gamble
So far, providers have not felt the possible effects of inflation or the energy crisis.
"Quite the opposite," says the DSWV happily.
"The German sports betting market was able to reach its pre-Corona level again this year."
In 2020 there was a brief slump in sales to a total of around 7.8 billion euros in Germany.
The World Cup is stressful for the providers anyway.
"From the bookmakers' point of view, the time before and during a World Cup is particularly work-intensive. Teams meet that do not otherwise meet in any other context, which makes creating betting odds particularly challenging," says the association.
Current example: A title win by Germany, which is traded in 6th place in Tipico's current ranking, brings in 110 euros for a stake of 10 euros in the event of the World Cup title.
In advertising, the providers like to point out that it is possible with sports-related knowledge and knowledge to correctly predict such results and earn money, explains
Steffen Otterbach
, who heads the gambling research focus at the University of Hohenheim.
"However, some international studies show that one's skills and the importance of knowledge about sports for success in sports betting are overestimated. This makes sports betting particularly dangerous."
The constant availability and lack of social control in sports betting on the Internet also lead to a high risk potential.
According to the current gambling survey from 2021, only just under half of the – predominantly male – customers of sports betting show normal gaming behavior.
After slots, sports betting is the second most common problem.
Almost every fifth player has a gambling disorder.
"Among the participants in live sports betting, the proportion of people with a mild to severe gambling disorder is even 30 percent," says researcher Otterbach.
The scientist therefore assumes that the betting game for Qatar will not necessarily be subdued.
"Bets will probably increase sharply because the World Cup will give more betting opportunities and people are more aware of them due to their constant presence in the media," says the expert.
But of course it could be that the criticism affects the betting stakes.
"The World Cup is a major international event and the sports betting market is international," said the gambling expert.
So the odds are 50:50.