"Soviet Independence" referendum right rejected, "Swiss model" reappears, can Brexit go back?

On November 23, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom ruled that the Scottish Parliament has no right to independently implement an "independence referendum" without the consent of the British Parliament.

This verdict is not surprising, and Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) who advocates "Soviet independence" and Scotland's first minister, also announced that the next general election will be the "real event" of Soviet independence. Referendum".

On the same day, it was revealed over the weekend that someone in the government was pushing for a shift to the "Swiss model" of Brexit.

Jeremy Hunt, the "Remainer" chancellor of the exchequer who stepped in last month and just released a new budget, became the center of the incident.

On the 23rd, when he faced a question in the Finance Committee of the House of Commons, he actually avoided the source of public opinion for four times whether the "Swiss model" of the Ministry of Finance was reappeared. ” and even re-examine the discussion of the relationship between the UK and the EU after Brexit.

The Scottish independence referendum and the "Swiss model" are actually two sides of the same coin in the aftermath of Brexit.

Soviet independence "Catalized"?

After the failure of the Scottish independence referendum under the David Cameron era in 2014, the Soviet independence faction undoubtedly reached a balance of opposition with London.

The Scottish National Party, which has won elections in Scotland for a long time under the banner of independence and has been in power stably, can continue to "verbalize independence" to win the support of voters, but it can use the "failure of popular support" as an excuse to subdue the independence faction in the party and leave the issue of Soviet independence For the next generation, there is no need to really prepare to deal with the practical difficulties of independence.

And the British government in London can respond to any calls for independence with "clear popular will."

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon speaks to the media after the Supreme Court decision.

(AP)

But Cameron's other political gamble, the 2016 Brexit referendum, turned out to be unsatisfactory.

For Shi Yaqing, who was already in charge of the Scottish National Party at the time, Scotland was "forced" to leave the EU with more than 60 percent of people supporting Remain. In terms of personal political ideas and election considerations, she had to push for a second election. The road to an independence referendum.

The short-lived balance that followed the 2014 referendum was disrupted.

Having learned the painful lesson of Catalonia’s repression in 2017 for ignoring the Madrid government’s opposition to a forced independence referendum, Shi Yaqing has always emphasized the need to follow a legal and constitutional route.

The so-called legal and constitutional, the most direct means is to use the referendum in 2014 as a matter of fact, and the British Parliament will temporarily hand over the powers reserved by the British Parliament to the Scottish Parliament according to the 1998 "Scotland Act". This is how the parliament implemented the independence referendum.

However, after all, the full name of the ruling Conservative Party in the United Kingdom is the "Conservative and Unionist Party." The four Conservative Party prime ministers after Cameron all refused to "borrow power" to vote for another office in Scotland.

In Scotland, people who support and oppose independence have actually shown a "50-50 split" situation for a long time. Holding an independence referendum at any time is also a big gamble for all parties.

However, during the tenure of Boris Johnson, who was not supported by the Scottish people and who was too personal in England (especially during the new crown epidemic), polls once steadily showed that the public opinion in support of Soviet independence slightly exceeded that in opposition.

Due to the obstruction of the "borrowing power" referendum, Shi Yaqing had no choice but to make some political gestures towards a referendum under the pressure of the public. Finally, in June this year, she proposed to hold a "second Soviet independence referendum" in October 2023. However, In order to be legal and constitutional, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom is required to make a ruling on this.

After the Supreme Court decision, there was a public rally outside the Scottish Parliament for independents and leftists.

(AP)

The legal argument is very simple.

Since British sovereignty belongs to the Parliament, even the referendum on Brexit in 2016 was only "consulative", and Congress had no legal obligation to follow it. Therefore, Shi Yaqing's reasoning was that the "second Soviet independence referendum" was only "consulative". , so it is not directly related to the power that can affect the status of the United Kingdom and belongs to the Parliament, so the Scottish Parliament should be able to unilaterally launch a referendum.

The Supreme Court responded that although the referendum would not have immediate legal consequences, it was an "important political event" affecting the connotation of Parliament's powers, and therefore the Scottish Parliament could not hold a referendum without the consent of the British Parliament.

At this point, Shi Yaqing had no choice but to step up her actions and regard the next general election as a "referendum on Soviet independence".

This poses a dilemma.

On the one hand, when various livelihood problems are becoming more and more serious, only about one-third of the people support holding a "second Soviet independence referendum", and the public opinion supporting independence has fallen back to a level slightly lower than that of opponents. Treating the general election as a "real referendum" is undoubtedly betting all her political chips on Soviet independence, which may make Shi Yaqing follow the path of her predecessor's failure in the referendum in 2014 (note: resignation) old road.

On the other hand, if the independence faction wins the next general election, Shi Yaqing's verbal "truth" can only go in the direction of "faran".

No matter which party is in power, the British government will not accept that this "de facto referendum" has any legal binding force. Therefore, Shi Yaqing has to follow the "Catalan" model that she has avoided for many years, and embarks on a path of failure. This is the end of destiny.

If there was no Brexit in 2016, Scottish politics would probably not be dominated by the issue of Soviet independence as it is today, but would fight against the British government through a dispute over the governance line (the Scottish National Party is more inclined to social democracy, for example, Scottish university education is free, England is not)——this may be the political battlefield that Shi Yaqing wants to see more.

The relationship between Xin Weicheng and Shi Yaqing is probably more friendly than that between Johnson and Zhuo Huisi.

(AP)

The "virtualization" of Brexit?

On the other hand, the "Swiss model" is a "soft Brexit" option since the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Finally, under the general trend of "hard Brexit" represented by Johnson, the "Trade Cooperation Agreement" (TCA) reached between the UK and the EU in 2020 is basically a free trade agreement. The UK does not have to be constrained by the European Court of Justice and does not have to accept population freedom. For mobility, there is no need to follow various EU standards and regulations, and no need to make financial contributions to the EU.

However, this relatively loose relationship has caused greater friction in business exchanges between the two parties, and has also caused a labor shortage in the UK. In the medium term, the size of the UK economy will shrink by 4%.

In fact, the UK will not enter the post-Brexit era until early 2021. Against the background of anti-epidemic policies, distribution of money under the epidemic, and the economic impact of the epidemic, the impact of Brexit has not received widespread attention.

However, when inflation was high this year and people discovered that the UK had become the only G7 country whose economic scale had not yet recovered to that before the epidemic, coupled with the impact of Liz Truss’s tax cut policy chaos, the prospect of Brexit Influence has once again become the focus of public opinion discussions.

Before Zhuo Huisi stepped down, she, who has always been tough on Europe, has accelerated the negotiation on the border inspection issue in Northern Ireland, obviously to ease the dispute between Britain and Europe.

Rishi Sunak, who succeeded him later, also improved his relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has always been tough on Britain, through the British Channel refugee agreement reached with France.

Hou Junwei, who was appointed as the finance minister during Zhuo Huisi's tenure, also continued to serve as Xin Weicheng's finance minister as a "remainer".

There are various signs that the relationship between Britain and Europe is thawing.

Since Britain's fiscal stability is an unshakable thing, Hou Junwei's position as finance minister may be even more stable than Xin Weicheng's.

(AP)

At this time, the discussion of the "Swiss model" within the government has no deep meaning.

Although Switzerland is not a member of the EU, it has shared many benefits of the EU single market through nearly 120 bilateral treaties with the EU.

However, the "Swiss model" comes at a price.

Switzerland must follow the EU in various laws related to the right to access the single market, and also make financial contributions to the EU, both of which are red lines for Brexiteers.

As soon as the discussion of the "Swiss model" came out, many Eurosceptic factions in the Conservative Party rebounded, and Xin Weicheng had to publicly declare that he would not accept the "Swiss model."

However, Hou Junwei still said that if the border control between Britain and Europe can be abolished "like the French-Swiss border", this is a position he has always supported.

(Press: Isn't this just another way of saying "Swiss model"?)

Although it is politically impossible to immediately renegotiate Johnson's "Trade Cooperation Agreement" under the current situation of the Conservative Party in power.

However, the voice of the "Swiss model" in the Conservative Party has already seen the growing "buyer's remorse" for Brexit in the British political circles.

In fact, the Brexiteers in 2016 generally did not imagine that Brexit was equivalent to a hard Brexit that completely broke away from the customs union and the single market. It's just a robbery.

The "Swiss model" is not a process that can be achieved overnight, but a slow turn that gradually closes the distance between Britain and Europe.

The British business community has already put forward proposals to allow the UK to comply with EU regulations on certain specific commodity items and specific categories to reduce trade costs. These proposals may become part of the British version of the "Swiss model" in the future.

In the end, the end point of the "Swiss model" is "Brexit in name" and "Remain in reality".

On the one hand, it can establish the status of the United Kingdom as a member of Europe, and it can also remove the "Brexit" element from domestic issues such as Scottish independence.

This is undoubtedly the way back from Brexit, but it is always better to turn back and die than to go the wrong way.

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