On November 20, the World Cup in Qatar officially opened.
On the same day, Turkey announced the launch of the "Claw-Sword" air military operation in northern Syria and Iraq, killing 184 Kurdish militants, which aroused the attention of global public opinion.
According to the Turkish side, the reason for launching the "Claw Sword" operation was because of terrorist attacks planned by Kurdish armed forces abroad.
On November 13, an explosion occurred in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, killing at least six people and injuring 81 others.
Afterwards, the Turkish police arrested a large number of suspects, and seized 3,800 US dollars, 5,000 euros, 10,000 Turkish lira and a large amount of jewelry from a suspect's home; PKK (PKK for short), Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and People's Protection Units (YPG) and other foreign Kurdish armed forces instigated from Syria to launch terrorist attacks inside Turkey.
Although the above three organizations all stated that they had nothing to do with the bombing, because Kurdish armed forces had indeed launched terrorist attacks in Turkey in the past, and Turkey launched Operation Claw (Operation Claw) on the northern border of Iraq in April this year. -Lock) and crossed the border to attack local Kurdish armed forces, the PKK senior commander Duran Kalkan publicly threatened, "We will launch attacks anywhere in Turkey, not only military targets and military strongholds, but also large City".
Therefore, from this perspective, Turkey's accusation is not entirely groundless.
However, after the "Claw Sword" operation, suspected Syrian Kurdish armed members retaliated on the 21st by firing rockets into Turkey, killing 2 Turkish people and injuring 10, which also escalated the situation suddenly.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has just participated in the opening ceremony of the World Cup, said on the 22nd that a ground offensive will be launched to Syria, and the Turkish Ministry of Defense will jointly determine the number of ground operations with the General Staff.
As soon as this remark came out, not only Russia expressed its opposition, but even the United States also asked Turkey to restrain itself.
In an instant, the situation in northern Syria was on the verge of breaking out. For Turkey, the above-mentioned series of statements not only have the effect of asking price, but also intend to "make a name for themselves."
People flee the scene of a terrorist attack in Turkey.
(AP)
Multiple Values to Russia and Iran
First of all, the purpose of the first phase of Turkey's attack on Syria is to deliberately take advantage of the fierce battle between Russia and Ukraine to ask for more benefits from Russia and Iran.
From Russia's perspective, it is a participant in the situation in northern Syria along with Iran and Turkey, but it is obviously more aligned with Iran and more fortified against Turkey.
Since the establishment of the Astana process in 2016, Russia, Turkey and Iran have maintained a dangerous coexistence in Syria with completely different geographical goals: Russia tends to freeze the conflict and consolidate the Bashar al-Assad regime; Iran hopes to Expand the local strategic buffer zone and build Syria into the front line of exporting revolution; Turkey intends to cut off the connection between the Kurdish armed forces and the southeastern provinces of Turkey, and regard Syria as a strategic fulcrum for cultivating the Middle East.
The reason why the three countries can live in peace under the Astana process is that Russia’s military and political dominance is the key. Even if Iran sends a large number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the battlefield, it still hitches a free ride on Russia to a certain extent. Yet Turkey has been a loner from the start.
Since 2016, Turkey has launched military operations against Syria four times, namely the "Euphrates Shield" (Euphrates Shield) from 2016 to 2017, the "Olive Branch" (Olive Branch) in 2018, and the "Peace Shield" in 2019. Peace Spring, and Spring Shield in 2020.
Since the "Olive Branch" operation, the Turkish army has not only attacked Kurdish forces, but also exchanged fire with the Syrian government forces supported by Russia, which caused strong dissatisfaction in Moscow.
After many unsuccessful coordinations, the Russian army brazenly confronted Turkey in 2020, which led to the sloppy end of the "Spring Shield", and Turkey could only be forced to obey the Russian-led order in northern Syria.
On March 5, 2020, Putin and Erdogan held a six-hour meeting in the Kremlin.
(AP)
However, after the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out in 2022, the situation changed.
Since the Ukrainian army's will to resist exceeded the Russian army's expectations, the latter could only be forced to deploy part of its troops in Syria to the Ukrainian battlefield when the war lasted for a long time. The launch of a new round of military operations in northern Syria has aroused common tension among Russia, Iran, and the Syrian government.
On July 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a trilateral summit meeting in Iran. Both Russia and Iran urged Turkey not to easily break the balance between Syria and North .
For Russia, the current quagmire in Ukraine is not over. In fact, it is not sure that it can assist the Syrian government forces to defeat the "Spring Shield" like in 2020; Iran is unwilling to let the strategic buffer zone it has cultivated for many years seep into Turkey's shadow.
Judging from the results, Turkey seems to have listened to the opinions of the two countries, and has not taken any further actions since July. As for what benefits Russia and Iran used to persuade Erdogan, the outside world does not know, but after the summit, the three countries each A series of economic and trade, infrastructure, and energy cooperation agreements have been signed. Even if Turkey does not carry out follow-up military operations, it is by no means nothing.
This time, it is not ruled out that Turkey intends to copy the above-mentioned script, and hopes to conduct a series of consultations with Russia and Iran, taking advantage of the lack of resources and the unwillingness of the two countries to seek more strategic benefits.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Sochi on August 5 to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(AP)
But Turkey is likely to act
However, even with precedent, the possibility of Turkish action remains.
Firstly, the occurrence of the terrorist attack did make Ankara "famous". Regardless of who did it or whether it was really related to the PKK, SDF, and YPG entrenched in northern Syria, Turkey has the suspect's testimony after all, and the Kurdish armed forces The senior commander of Turkey has also threatened to "launch an attack anywhere in Turkey", and even if he may not actually do it, he has inadvertently delivered it, giving Turkey an air strike and threatening a ground operation.
Second, Erdogan will run for the presidential election in 2023, but Turkey's inflation continues to soar to record highs this year. Even though Erdogan vowed to "cut interest rates" for the long-term consideration of the Turkish economy, public grievances and demonstrations are still raging.
Under such circumstances, Erdogan can only strive to make a difference in the diplomatic arena, whether it is mediating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, holding the first meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers since the start of the war, brokering the signing of the Black Sea grain transportation agreement, and promoting the cooperation between US and Russian intelligence officials. Although the secret negotiations in Turkey are a flexible manifestation of Turkey's balanced diplomacy, they also have a certain degree of electoral political considerations.
Right now, Turkish public opinion is grieving over the terrorist attacks. If Turkey can take advantage of this atmosphere to launch the fifth military operation against Syria since 2016, it will also add points to Erdogan's election situation.
The Turkish Defense Minister commanded the operation Claw Sword.
(AP)
Thirdly, it is Turkey's long-term strategic goal to go deep into northern Syria. If the Russian army hadn't obstructed it, it might have used the "Spring Shield" to conquer more territories, instead of being forced to stop and stand still.
Right now, the main force of the Russian army is on the Ukrainian battlefield, which is a rare "window of opportunity" for Turkey. It can even be said to be the most favorable moment to send troops since 2016. Even if Turkey may not be able to obtain the prior consent of Russia and Iran, as long as it It assesses that the punishment of the two countries is "still within the acceptable range", and it may boldly advance and launch the fifth military operation against Syria.
After all, it has never been an agreement in black and white that can constrain the actions of all parties in the Middle East battlefield, but the guns that compete with each other. Right now, when the guns of the Russian army are vulnerable, Turkey is likely to take advantage of the situation.
As for whether the United States can play a role in it?
In all fairness, with the collapse of the "Islamic State" (IS) regime, the U.S. military has gradually withdrawn from the Syrian battlefield. It has long been unable to implement its strategic will. Instead, it has provided military aid and financial support to the local Kurdish armed forces, making the latter a geopolitical pawn for Washington. Maintains a military presence in Syria on behalf of the United States.
However, such support is erratic, and it can neither stop the artillery of the Russian army, nor prevent Turkey from invading southwardly.
Therefore, although the United States also expressed its opposition to Turkey's march this time, such verbal intimidation is weaker than the Russian army's live ammunition, and obviously it will not become Turkey's action considerations.
Although Syria is not happy to see Turkey take action, it can only maintain its regime because it relies entirely on the support of Russia and Iran, so it can only verbally intimidate.
On November 16, the Syrian Foreign Minister stated that Syria condemned the terrorist attack, but Turkey should not use this incident to worsen the status quo.
In the end, whether Turkey will launch a fifth military operation depends on the benefits that Russia and Iran can offer, as well as the strategic deterrence that both countries can exert.
If both are low, it's only a matter of time before the horn is sounded.
Why did Turkey launch Operation Claw Sword against Iraq and Syria?
In retaliation for the Kurdish forces planning the Istanbul terrorist attack.
Will Turkey launch a fifth military operation against northern Syria? What are its considerations?
How much benefit can Russia and Iran give, and how effective is the strategic intimidation of the two countries.
What is Turkey planning in the first meeting between senior US and Russian officials since the war?
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