Where is the Corona winter wave?
Created: 2022-11-25 05:07
By: Martina Lippl
Where is the Corona winter wave?
Lauterbach warns of increasing numbers of infections - rightly so?
© Christian Ohde/imago
Corona turns three.
Experts warn of a new wave of infections in winter 2022/23.
However, there is hardly any sign of a new wave at the moment.
Munich – The corona situation in Germany currently seems to be relatively relaxed.
The corona numbers have fallen significantly in the past few weeks.
Will this trend continue?
"I think we'll get another winter wave," said Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach on Thursday (November 24) on
Bayerischer Rundfunk
.
The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten was cautiously more optimistic in the
Zeit
interview.
However, he did not completely rule out a strong winter wave.
And now?
Where is the Corona winter wave 2022/23?
How high are the infection numbers?
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported a seven-day incidence of 186.9 on Thursday.
The day before, the value was still 177.9.
As is well known, however, the data only provide an incomplete picture of the infection process.
Experts assume a high number of unreported cases of corona.
Not all infected people have a PCR test done and only the results are included in the statistics.
Epidemiologist Timo Ulrichs from the Acre University of Human Sciences is also surprised by the dynamics.
"In fact, I didn't expect this development.
I had assumed a larger autumn and winter wave," said Ulrichs
on
ntv.de.
The scientist suspected that there may now be a certain herd immunity in the population through vaccination and an infection that has been overcome.
In his opinion, there are no signs of a trend reversal towards a winter wave.
Ulrichs referred to the monitoring of the viral load in the wastewater, which shows no evidence.
In fact, the so-called wastewater surveillance of the RKI does not show any increasing corona values.
On the contrary: the values are falling.
There is currently no trace of a "hidden" wave in Germany in terms of the viral load in the wastewater at the selected locations.
Corona trend reversal in sight?
That means the Omikron variants BQ.1.1
The coronavirus is unpredictable.
That has been shown in the past.
The Sars-CoV-2 variants have repeatedly surprised even the corona expert Drosten, according to his own statements.
In his opinion, the further course of winter 2022 also depends on which corona variant will prevail next.
"Two Omikron variants are currently starting up: BF.7 and BQ.1.1." Should the particularly contagious Omikron descendant BQ.1.1 become dominant, "the winter could be difficult again," said Drosten.
BQ.1.1 already has the nickname "Hellhound" or "Cerberus" gone.
There is no indication that BQ.1.1 is more dangerous than other variants.
But the corona subvariant can circumvent the immune protection even better.
Experts are convinced that the new corona variant will prevail in Europe and also in Germany.
According to the RKI, BQ.1.1 is spreading in Germany.
The proportion in the samples was over 8 percent, as can be seen from the weekly report (as of November 17, 2022).
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This is the Corona situation in neighboring Austria
Austria was always one step ahead of Germany in many developments during the corona pandemic.
In the Alpine Republic, the share of BQ.1 is now 21 percent.
The previously dominant BA.4/BA.5 variant is declining, the Covid Prognosis Consortium announced in its most recent report
(as of November 22)
.
According to the report, “a trend reversal towards increasing numbers” is “possible” in Austria.
The number of cases increased in the 5 to 14 age group.
The viral load in the wastewater in some Austrian federal states is increasing, while in the others the development is constant.
Corona in Germany: How was the development in winter 2021?
Is everything really different with Corona in winter 2022/23?
A look at winter 2021 makes it clear: no wave of corona infections was registered in November 2021 and December 2021.
The number of infections only exploded in January 2022. The winter wave had peaked in March.
date | 7-day incidence according to RKI |
|---|---|
November 24, 2021 | 450.8 |
December 24, 2021 | 280.1 |
January 24, 2021 | 956.6 |
Source: Pandemic Radar
Corona forecast for winter 2022/23?
The growth rate of BQ.1.1 is still uncertain.
The next few weeks will show whether BQ.1.1 will drive a new wave in Germany.
Federal Health Minister Lauterbach could be right.
He sharply criticized the fact that Bavaria is considering ending the mask requirement on buses and trains.
In the event that what he considers to be a “reckless” decision to abolish the obligation to wear masks in local transport is made at state level, Lauterbach showed no inclination to abolish the obligation to wear masks in long-distance transport in the near future.
The Infection Protection Act applies until April.
The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck recently appealed to be careful and considerate in the current pandemic phase.
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