Rumors of Putin's fall: when the Kremlin ruler is "certainly at risk"
Created: 11/26/2022, 8:10 p.m
By: Yannick Hanke
The rumors about a possible fall of Vladimir Putin do not die down.
A Russia expert is now giving his assessment.
Does the Kremlin ruler have his back against the wall?
Innsbruck/Moscow – Military defeats, alleged political intrigues, dissatisfaction within the Russian population – is Vladimir Putin's fall just a matter of time?
Russia's president appears to be at a crossroads.
At the end of February 2022, the war in Ukraine began on the orders of the Kremlin ruler.
Since then, rumors have increased that Putin's power is crumbling.
This is reported by kreiszeitung.de.
Of course, this does not necessarily have to lead directly to a coup or overthrow of the Russian president.
And yet the question is whether Putin remains as firmly in the chair as he has been for years.
Gerhard Mangott, Russia expert and Professor of International Relations at the University of Innsbruck, classifies the overall situation.
Fall of Vladimir Putin: Russia expert considers violent coup "unlikely"
The Newsweek
portal
had reported that, according to a whistleblower from the Russian secret service FSB, a war between Vladimir Putin and his previous allies was inevitable.
This meant Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin's bloodhound and President of Chechnya, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin's cook and head of the Wagner mercenary group.
They could ultimately lead to Putin's downfall, the report said
How likely is it that Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) will fall?
The withdrawal of his military from Cherson (Ukraine) may not have been part of his plan.
© Maksim Blinov/dpa/imago/Montage
For Russia expert Mangott, this is pure speculation.
The dissatisfaction in Russia has "increased significantly" and the "mood towards Putin has changed in Russia for the long term".
But Mangott does not have the impression "that this has reached the point where there is a violent conflict within Russia," he told
Focus Online
.
At least for the time being, the Russia expert considers a violent overthrow of Putin to be “unlikely”.
"Putin's position is certainly in jeopardy": when the Kremlin ruler has to fear for his power
But, as Mangott emphasizes, if the series of Russian defeats in the Ukraine war continues and Russia is pushed further and further back, then "Putin's position will certainly be in jeopardy."
The Russia expert does not see Prigozhin and Kadyrov as a political threat that could lead to Putin's fall.
Neither would have the potential to rise to the top.
However, this still does not rule out a coup or fall.
Is there any possibility at all for Putin to avert a fall?
According to Mangott, the Kremlin ruler must "work more collectively".
By this he means that Russia's president must involve several people in the conduct of the war in order to avert his fall.
In this way, Putin could also get any opponents on his side.
However, Mangott cannot say with certainty whether this scenario will occur.
Putin as “retired tsar”: overthrow of Kremlin ruler would greatly influence progress of Ukraine war
In any case, it is striking that Putin is currently very silent and sometimes even goes into hiding.
That's why Mangott describes him as a "reclusive tsar" who "doesn't want to take his share of the responsibility".
A concrete example of this is the Russian troop withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
This was neither announced nor commented on by Putin.
That would give him the impression that he had nothing to do with the things that are going wrong.
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But the credibility of this message from Putin among the Russian population is "very low".
In the end, Mangott came to a conclusion: the progress of the Ukraine war would primarily depend on whether the Kremlin ruler can retain his power in Russia or lose it after all.
Possibly through a coup or overthrow of Putin - by whomever.