On November 20, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida returned home from his diplomatic trip in Southeast Asia, but he immediately encountered a political blow.
On the evening of the 20th, Japanese Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Minoru Terada announced his resignation after talking with the Prime Minister due to his involvement in a political funding scandal for a long time, becoming the third cabinet member to leave after the establishment of the new Kishida cabinet.
The previous two were former Minister of Economic Reconstruction Daishiro Yamaji and former Minister of Justice Yasuhiro Yasuo. The former resigned in embarrassment due to investigations into his connection with the "Unification Church", while the latter announced his resignation due to frequent gaffes.
Japanese media pointed out that Minoru Terada's resignation was a huge blow to Kishida's cabinet. Kishida himself apologized for this and appointed former Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto as Minister of General Affairs.
However, the storm is not over yet.
Japan's "Weekly Bunshun" revealed on the 22nd that Fumio Kishida was suspected of lying about his income and expenditure during the 2021 House of Representatives election. Among the more than 270 receipts he submitted to the Hiroshima Prefectural Election Management Commission, as many as 239 had various blanks, some of which were not written. On the recipient, some did not specify the purpose, and some even only wrote the amount. Both the recipient and the purpose were blank, and the total amount was 1.64 million yen (about 90,000 Hong Kong dollars).
This phenomenon obviously violates the provisions of the Japanese Public Office Election Law, that is, all candidates can collect a certain amount of election funding fees, but must specify the date, amount, purpose, source and other information in detail.
Although Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara stated that the Prime Minister himself had no knowledge of the content of the "Weekly Bunshun" report, it is still difficult to stop Fumio Kishida's political blood loss.
Some Japanese media said that in view of the recent scandals, Kishida may plan to reshuffle the cabinet within this year. However, it has only been more than three months since the last reshuffle. It is believed that Kishida may dissolve the House of Representatives next spring and resign as prime minister, and some Japanese media have even begun to discuss the topic of "who is Kishida's successor".
On November 18, 2022, a group of national leaders or high-level government leaders attending the APEC meeting took a photo at the meeting, including U.S. Vice President He Jinli, third from the right, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, third from the left, Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-soo, second from the right, and Australian Prime Minister Albanese on the first, New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern on the right, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the second from the left.
(AP)
Why Kishida got into trouble
Looking back at the changes in the political situation after Fumio Kishida came to power, the fuse of the predicament was planted a few months ago.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated and killed on July 8. The suspect, Toru Yamagami, also confessed after his arrest that his mother’s obsession with the Unification Church led to the breakdown of the family, and Shinzo Abe committed the crime because of his close contacts with the Unification Church.
This incident triggered a tsunami of public opinion in Japanese society. The public not only condemned the Unification Church for extorting property from believers, but also dissatisfied that senior officials of the Liberal Democratic Party had many connections with the Unification Church. Kishida was forced to announce a cabinet reshuffle under the outrage.
At the same time, however, he insisted on holding a state funeral for Shinzo Abe. First, he hoped to enhance his political power in the Liberal Democratic Party and carve up the political legacy and territory left by Abe. Second, he hoped to use the state funeral to invite Western dignitaries Participate and show your capable image.
However, this decision was not passed by the parliamentary vote. Abe's connection with the Unification Church has also clouded the image of the state funeral. The huge state funeral expenses exposed since September have made public dissatisfaction continue to rage.
In the end, when the state funeral was officially held on September 27, none of the leaders of the G7 countries was present. Not only did Kishida's "condolence diplomacy" plan fail, he was also ridiculed by domestic public opinion.
On September 27, in Tokyo, Japan, guests presented flowers to Shinzo Abe one by one.
(AP)
Since October, Kishida Fumio has faced a political crisis from within.
Minister of Economic Revitalization Taishiro Yamaji was exposed. He not only attended Unification Church activities, but also took a photo with the wife of Unification Church founder Moon Myung-myung. He finally announced his resignation on October 24, becoming the first domino to fall after the cabinet reshuffle.
For Kishida, although Taishiro Yamaji is not a member of the Kishida-led faction "Koikekai", he is mainly responsible for promoting Kishida's main economic policy "New Capitalism" and formulating new crown countermeasures, and was retained in the previous cabinet reshuffle.
If he leaves now, it will obviously impact Kishida's authority.
Yasuhiro Yasuo, the second former Minister of Justice who resigned, was a member of the Hongchihui.
When he officially resigned on November 11, Kishida was about to start a diplomatic visit to Southeast Asia, but was forced to postpone the trip because of this incident and was criticized by public opinion.
Minoru Terada, the third Minister of General Affairs who resigned, was also a member of the Hiroike Association, the founder of the Hiroike Association, and a relative of the former Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda. He was from the same Hiroshima constituency as Kishida.
As early as early October, the Japanese media exposed that Minoru Terada was suspected of illegally paying local councilors during the election of the House of Representatives, and then successively revealed that there was a problem with the political fund income and expenditure report of his support club, and the accountant signatory in the report was actually dead.
Minoru Terada continued to deny the above reports and allegations, but the ironclad evidence was unavoidable. In the end, Kishida could only endure the pain and cut off his tail to survive.
In just one month, the new Kishida cabinet replaced three ministers, which was rare in postwar Japanese political history. Therefore, some voices in the opposition criticized that "the Kishida cabinet is not as good as the general resignation."
The public also has doubts about the prestige of the prime minister’s leadership. According to a number of opinion polls released by Japanese media, the support rate of the Kishida cabinet has been declining since November. Taking the poll results of Japan’s NHK TV station as an example, its support rate is only 33%.
Since the 3rd of this month, "Kishida step down" has become a hot topic on Twitter in Japan, and this is the sixth time this entry has been screened since June 23 this year.
What shocked the Japanese Prime Minister's Office the most was that the results of polls conducted by Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun" on the 19th and 20th of this month showed that 43% of the people "hope Kishida resigns as soon as possible."
On August 10, 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (in the first row) led a new group of cabinet members for a group photo at the prime minister's official residence.
(AP)
Party contenders eager to try
In this situation, the competitors in the Liberal Democratic Party are eager to try, hoping to take advantage of the Kishida government's public opinion dilemma to win the opportunity for themselves.
Based on the analysis of possible candidates from various circles, several ministers Kono Taro and Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi seem to be interested in planning.
According to a poll released by "Mainichi Shimbun" on November 20, Kono Taro ranked first with 15% support for the question of "Who do you want to be the Prime Minister?" The current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has 12% support Ranked second.
Kono Taro has always been highly popular among the people, but he was unable to obtain the same support within the party, so he suffered a bitter defeat in the 2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.
However, this does not mean that Kono has given up on this. On the recent Unification Church issue, Kono has shown a tough stance. Some insiders in the Liberal Democratic Party believe that he intends to contrast Fumio Kishida’s "weakness" for the next presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party. layout.
Toshimitsu Motegi publicly stated on a Japanese TV program in October that he and the current Liberal Democratic Party President Kishida and Vice President Taro Aso often meet to discuss government and party management issues. The three are like the "three-headed political" alliance in ancient Rome.
As soon as this remark came out, it was interpreted by some public opinion as a pre-arrangement of "future planning". Especially after Abe's death, Taro Aso was regarded as the next "king maker". Contact, the outside world will think that Motegi intends to seek Aso's support and compete for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
The picture shows that on September 18, 2021, Taro Kono, Minister of Administrative Reform of Japan, and Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, attended the debate in Tokyo.
(AP)
Looking back at the root cause of the Kishida regime's challenge, the key lies in its inability to curb the ferment of negative public opinion, which led to the start of the party to move around.
On the issue of the Unification Church, even if Kishida promotes a cabinet reshuffle, he cannot filter the connection between officials and the Unification Church. Leaving one after another will also intensify the negative perception of the prime minister among the people; on economic issues, Japan’s economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter of last year, the first decline since the third quarter of last year. At the same time, Japanese prices continued to soar. Fresh food was excluded in October The consumer price index of energy and energy rose by 3.6% year-on-year, the largest increase in 40 years. Under this severe situation, the deliberation of the second supplementary budget for 2022 has not yet come to fruition.
Therefore, for the Kishida government, in order to resolve the current political storm pragmatically, the key is to focus on internal affairs and ease public opinion, including deliberation on the supplementary budget and the introduction of the Relief Act for Victims of the Unification Church. Only in this way can they avoid continued political chaos.
Of course, from the reality of Japanese politics, the key to determining Fumio Kishida's future is not whether the election scandal is true, but how the Liberal Democratic Party's internal power structure will use Kishida's crisis.
Before the unified local elections in the spring of 2023, the Liberal Democratic Party will support Kishida's prime ministership in consideration of the overall situation, despite the surging atmosphere of "down and up". However, judging from the current atmosphere, it seems that it is far from reaching this point.
Which Fumio Kishida challengers have appeared in the Liberal Democratic Party recently?
Kono Taro, Motegi Toshimitsu.
What is the key to leading Fumio Kishida to encounter challenges within the party?
Controversy over the Unification Church, the resignation of many cabinet officials, and the downturn in the Japanese economy
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