Feijóo runs out of credit

In the politics of our time, nothing is what it seems and everything is experienced at great speed.

What today seems solid, even immovable, tomorrow could fall apart with the astonishing ease of a sugar cube.

The analyzes do not last a week and the tools we used to understand the world no longer serve us, without having found a new instrument.

All this plunges us into a state of permanent perplexity and agitation.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo touched the sky this summer, after the PP swept the elections to the Andalusian parliament.

In July the polls predicted his uncontested victory in a hypothetical general election, with more than ten points over a PSOE that appeared demobilized and without direction.

Since then, however, the PP's expectations have only worsened.

The most recent polls coincide in pointing out a clear decline in the estimate of the popular vote, which is offset by an improvement in Vox's expectations.

In the CIS barometer for November, it can be seen how, for the first time since Feijóo assumed the popular leadership, the number of PP voters who would now vote for Vox increases.

There is also an evident setback in the transfer of votes to the PP from Ciudadanos and from the PSOE.

In this way, between July and November, Feijóo would have lost almost a million votes.

But it is not only that the PP loses intensity of penetration in the spaces of its most immediate rivals.

The popular vote itself seems less determined today.

The loyalty rate has fallen to June levels, which means some 400,000 fewer voters, most of whom have migrated to indecision.

And this coincides with a clear setback in the preference for Feijóo as president among the popular electorate itself.

All of this has a very simple explanation: the momentum generated by the change in the party's leadership, plus the Andalusian elections, has run out.

The PP voter has left the high behind and seems to be settling back to normal in the absence of an electoral climate.

This, which should not cause concern in a leader established in such a presidential party as the PP, is, paradoxically, terrible for Feijóo and the stability of his leadership in the medium term, as is beginning to be seen.

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Because Feijóo's continuity at the head of the PP does not depend on the possible internal response to his leadership, but on the opinion of a world that has long acted as if it were the majority shareholders of the conservative party.

This group is beginning to show signs of discontent with the Galician leader, to whom they send messages in the form of front pages, editorials and opinion articles.

This change shows to what extent the Feijóo option to replace the charred Casado was not so much an ideological commitment by this group as an instrumental investment.

They accepted Feijóo and his moderation strategy because it apparently guaranteed the future victory of the PP.

At the moment that this victory appears less certain, the "investors" have begun to panic and demand that Feijóo change his strategy towards tougher positions.

Before Feijóo, two options are open: resist or assume the

of its majority shareholders, at the risk of entering a destructive spiral.

For the moment, Feijóo seems to have opted for the middle path, hardening the message without bowing to the demands that are made of him.

Buying time while waiting for an improvement in the surveys to calm down their particular vulture funds.

May and the battle of Madrid are drawn on the horizon.

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