Eight months have passed since the escalation in Judea and Samaria and Operation Breakwater, and the security establishment's forecast for the foreseeable future is rather gloomy.
The area is very violent, the number of Palestinian deaths is high and stands at 134 since the beginning of the year (compared to 76 the year before), the use of firearms is increasing and the Palestinian Authority continues to lose control.
The security establishment is concerned about local organizations of "local rioters" in the various cities in the West Bank who will try to imitate the "Lion's Den", and also point to a significant increase in the number of incidents of nationalist crime by Jews against Palestinians, and against the Israeli security forces.
The activity of the security forces in the "Breakwater" operation, photo: IDF spokesman
This prediction by the Central Command comes after precisely in the last few weeks, before the attack in Ariel, the data indicated a decrease in the number of attacks and the number of warnings.
However, in just one week the situation turned upside down, when a terrorist carried out a deadly attack in Ariel, two explosions rocked Jerusalem, Palestinians tried to plant a car bomb near an IDF pillbox, and a clash was recorded between settlers in Hebron and Palestinians and the security forces.
In total, so far in 2022 (which has not yet ended), 281 terrorist attacks have been recorded compared to 91 last year, 31 civilians and soldiers were killed (of which 23 civilians and 8 members of the security forces), and 3,382 incidents of "popular terrorism" were committed against civilians.
Demolition of terrorist houses in 2022 // IDF spokesman
The most disturbing trend is, as you know, a sharp increase in terrorist incidents in northern Samaria, with an emphasis on Jenin and Nablus.
During the past year, the IDF made about 3,000 arrests in Judea and Samaria, of which more than 55 were special arrests, and in total about 2,500 suspects were arrested. According to Aman's estimate, more than 500 terrorist attacks were thwarted, and about 250 weapons were seized illegal.
The IDF is reporting a war on weapons in the PA, which also includes thwarting smuggling from Jordan, and as a result of these actions, the price list of weapons in Judea and Samaria has risen significantly, when today the price of an M-16 in the IOSH is about 90 thousand shekels, and a gun can be sold for 60 A thousand shekels.
The succession battle is in full swing
The lack of optimism in the security system regarding the future stems from the convergence of several factors that influence a high level of violence in the area, and the Palestinian Authority's inability or desire to maintain order in its territory.
The security establishment has been pointing out for a long time the lack of governance of the Palestinian Authority, and emphasizing that "the day after Abu Mazen" is already here.
His days are numbered.
Abu Mazen, photo: Reuters
Realizing that Abu Mazen's days are numbered, the PA succession battle is in full swing, the Palestinian society and leadership is divided into camps, and the mechanisms do not dare to act against their own people (unless it is Islamic Jihad or Hamas).
This is one of the main reasons why the mechanisms generally avoid using their power against local terrorist groups, such as the "Lion's Den", which was also identified with Fatah.
At the same time, the army recognizes considerable efforts by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to set fire to the area, when, unlike in the past, these two organizations are interested in using "freelancers" who will carry out terrorist activities and set fire to the area with their own funding, and do not emphasize the emergence of threats from their ranks only.
Wisely in retrospect, the security establishment points out that the six months during which the Palestinian Authority announced the end of security coordination with Israel allowed Hamas and Islamic Jihad to organize in the field, and this fact affects the security situation to this day.
We will note, only that in real time the security system did not understand this.
A diplomatic attack
Today, the security establishment states that the cooperation with the PA in regards to the damage to these two terrorist organizations is excellent, but the PA works against Israel in the international arena and carries out major diplomatic "attacks" against Israel, which are defined as strategic attacks.
And if that's not enough, the security system recognizes a worrying trend in which there is a "leakage" of personnel involved in sabotage activities against Israel.
It is still not a widespread phenomenon, but definitely one that should be noticed.
The main "bright spot" as far as the security system is concerned is that the Palestinians do not take to the streets en masse, and even while Israel besieged Nablus for 21 days, there were no unusual violations against the security forces.
The IDF explains this, among other things, by the fact that the Palestinian public also realized that there is a local organization in Nablus called "Gov Aryot" that someone needs to take care of.
"Gov Aryot" activist in Nablus, photo: Reuters
But it is possible that the intifada in 2022 is not similar to the intifada of 2002 or 1987, and today the social protest takes place mainly on social networks, when the problematic "public" that the security establishment is required to deal with is local armed men who hold weapons.
If Israel has to deal with 150-200 such armed men in each of the Palestinian cities, it is not at all certain that the events will be considered less serious than those of 20 years ago.
Attempts to establish organizations similar to the "Lion's Den" in various areas of the West Bank are already recognized in the security establishment, and the phenomenon is being followed with concern.
"Price Tag"
If that's not enough, in the last year there has been a significant increase in the number of "price tag" events which have so far amounted to no less than 838 events since the beginning of the year.
For comparison, in 2021 there were 446 incidents of nationalist crime, and in 2020 353. As part of those incidents, after each attack, Israeli citizens who are defined by the Central Command as "ordinary people", i.e. not radical youth, go out and throw stones at Palestinian vehicles.
At the same time, the IDF points out that despite the increase in the number of incidents, there has been a dramatic decrease in incidents that are defined as "severe", thanks to arrests and indictments against specific individuals.
Documentation: a Givat soldier strikes a leftist activist // Photo: Issa Amro and Tal Sagi
The Central Command defines the recent events in the "Zabar" battalion in Hebron, in which a soldier confronted a left-wing protester, and another soldier sent political slogans to the camera, as extremely serious, and admits that a way should have been found to prevent them in advance.
Following the events, the army is conducting an in-depth investigation whose purpose, among other things, is to check what other tools can be given to commanders and soldiers to deal with situations of this type, apart from the mental preparations they go through.
Harm in combat training
The problem is exacerbated when one realizes that the IDF invests a very large order of forces in the West Bank, in a way that harms the regular training of the forces in preparation for a future war in other sectors, where the threat is higher. The reserves that were transferred to the sector also increased significantly.
In light of the need for a significant increase in the order of the reserve forces in favor of the BTS in the IOSH, the army was required to contact the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee in order to approve another exceptional recruitment of reservists for operational employment, since according to the law they can only be employed once every three years.
Quite a few of the many forces that overcome Judea and Samaria are invested in the seam area, and there is no doubt that the investment yields results.
If in the past there was talk of about 40 thousand Shebaim in Israel every day, today it is estimated that there are "only" about 15,000 Shebaim in Israel, some of whom simply do not return to their homes for a long time.
It is estimated that every day about 1,500 Palestinians still manage to infiltrate Israel.
Erez crossing in the Gaza Strip, photo: Dodo Greenspan, archive
At the same time, thanks to the attempt to close the gap, the security establishment reports an increase of almost 50% in the number of Palestinians who passed through the regulated crossings into Israel this year, and if in 2021 there were 2,031,901 crossings into Israel, then now the number is approaching 3 million.
This creates a great burden, and the security system intends to invest in the supporting infrastructure to improve the response to the issue.
In the meantime, as part of the lessons learned from the attack in Ariel and the conduct of the security guard, who instead of seeking contact with the terrorist went to help his wounded friend and thus did not prevent the continuation of the deadly murder spree, the central command distributed to the heads of the local authorities a draft for reference regarding the qualifications required of security guards where there are Palestinian workers for the settlement.
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