The results of Taiwan's "nine-in-one" election (that is, the election of county and city mayors) have been released. The biggest highlight is the victory of the Kuomintang, which won the "six capitals" of Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, and Taichung, and unexpectedly won Keelung. Although the DPP retained Tainan and Kaohsiung, it set the worst record in participating in local elections in the 36 years since the founding of the party, which can be described as a "big defeat".
In the 2022 Taiwan Nine-in-One Election, New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi defeated DPP opponent Lin Jialong by a gap of more than 400,000 yuan and was re-elected.
(Provided by Hou Youyi's campaign office)
After the election results were announced, Tsai Ing-wen announced her resignation as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, which is considered responsible for the defeat.
However, this symbolic move will have no impact on Tsai Ing-wen’s power status in Taiwan, mainly within the DPP and in terms of specific governance. She may face criticism and challenges from some forces within the party, and will be dominated by the KMT local government boycott.
Another highlight of this election is that in Taipei, Chiang Wanan, the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-shek and the only member of the fourth generation of the Chiang family to be in politics, competed on behalf of the KMT against DPP candidate Chen Shizhong and non-party candidate Huang Shanshan. Won the position of mayor of Taipei.
Jiang Wan'an originally had a chance to be elected in 2018, but at that time he did not participate on the grounds that he was still young and needed experience (in fact, he had no confidence in whether he could beat Ke Wenzhe). Leading by votes, narrowly defeated KMT candidate Ding Shouzhong for re-election.
Next, Ke Wenzhe, who resigned from the mayor of Taipei, is considered to be the biggest variable in Taiwan's general election in 2024 besides the blue and green. How to maintain his political presence in the future and whether he has a chance to win the big position is another point worth paying attention to. .
Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe.
(Video screenshot: Ke Wenzhe Facebook)
In addition, because of Zhu Lilun's contribution to organizing the Kuomintang election this time, will it revive the old dream in his heart, aiming at the layout of the presidential throne on Ketagalan Avenue, and the ultimate confrontation with Lai Qingde or Zheng Wencan is also a very interesting point of view.
The above are more lively topics at the level of "appearance".
However, laymen only watch these excitements, while real experts are all looking at the doorway.
What is the biggest doorway here?
This is why the Democratic Progressive Party has made such a big splash. Tsai Ing-wen won an unprecedented 8.17 million votes two years ago. The United States also frequently assisted during this period. Pelosi visited Taiwan. As a result, the DPP not only failed to recreate its glory, but was disgraced by the KMT and recorded the worst record since the founding of the party. Not only did it not work in this election, but to some extent, it seems to have become election poison.
On the morning of October 10, 2022, Tsai Ing-wen delivered a Double Tenth speech titled "Unite Taiwan, Move Forward with Confidence".
(Taiwan Presidential Palace)
In this regard, the reporters of "Hong Kong 01" on the front line of the election wrote an article to systematically analyze the reasons.
Everyone believes that, in addition to the pendulum effect of traditional elections, the failure of the DPP this time was caused by the superposition of various reasons.
First of all, news that is unfavorable to the DPP came out before the election, including unfavorable epidemic prevention, vaccine disadvantages, frequent occurrence of major social security cases, underworld and political figures, etc., all of which lowered the DPP's election score. value.
Coupled with the fact that Lin Zhijian, the candidate for Taoyuan mayor supported by Tsai Ing-wen, was forced to abandon the election due to falsified thesis, Chen Shizhong was murdered by "pig teammates" in Taipei, and the negative election operation of the Democratic Party candidate Gao Hongan in Hsinchu was too much, etc., These are the reasons why voters keep their distance from the DPP.
Second, the DPP is overconfident about the election situation, especially the canvassing effect on Tsai Ing-wen.
Judging from the election results, Tsai Ing-wen's slogan "Vote for the DPP candidate is to vote for Tsai Ing-wen" before the election was obviously a tactical error. As a result, even the young voters who have always been considered to support the DPP have not seen the gathering effect in this election.
On the eve of Taiwan's nine-in-one election, Tsai Ing-wen called on voters for Democratic Progressive Party candidates to "stand up for Taiwan."
(Facebook/Chen Shizhong)
Thirdly, according to various polls before this election, the DPP’s election situation is not optimistic, and the gap between the two parties is still quite large. With the general trend of major counties and cities already determined, it will not be able to arouse supporters of the green camp. voting enthusiasm.
For example, in the past, the DPP would mobilize the student population to return to their hometowns to vote and arrange special bus or high-speed rail discounts. In this election, they did not mobilize due to the cold response of young people.
Fourth, and most importantly, in the past, the DPP's "anti-China protection Taiwan" signboard failed to work.
In previous elections, once the election crisis, the DPP would raise the banner of the two sides of the strait, pretending to be the defender of Taiwan, and branding the KMT as a "pro-China and selling Taiwan" passer-by. In the 2020 general election, Tsai Ing-wen even picked up This is one of the reasons why cross-strait issues scored higher in local county and city mayoral elections than in general elections.
Second, during this election period, the background of DPP politicians who had gone to mainland China for exchanges and business was disclosed by their political opponents. To a certain extent, it was broken.
Third, although Taiwan-US relations have made breakthroughs during Tsai Ing-wen's term of office, and the US has intensified its efforts to use Taiwan to contain China in various ways, these actions did not bring much real benefit to Taiwan, but instead triggered cross-strait tensions. crisis of conflict.
Under the pressure of the military reunification in mainland China, Taiwanese people began to realize that if a war between the two sides of the strait really broke out, Taiwan would definitely not last for a few days, and the United States might not necessarily come to the rescue.
Therefore, rational thinking under the threat of cross-strait conflicts has played a certain role in this election. Although most voters still have a drunken mentality of seeking independence on the issue of unification and independence, the emotional components of voters have also begun to show a certain degree of fever. .
After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army conducted an island-locking exercise against Taiwan, reaching the mainland island of Taiwan unprecedentedly.
(profile picture)
Fourth, objectively speaking, the periodical easing of Sino-US relations is also one of the external factors for the DPP’s defeat. Especially recently, those allies of the United States who used to play the Taiwan card have become relatively silent, even the Australian Prime Minister Publicly saying that Taiwan is not a country and cannot join the CPTPP. Lithuania has been "diplomatically breaking through" with Taiwan for a long time. As a result, it has only recently set up an office in Taiwan that has no consular role and is managed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
These external factors have made it difficult for the DPP to find a place to exert force in its "anti-China protection Taiwan".
The combination of the above factors has made the DPP's election "Dali Pill" basically ineffective this time.
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