Bank of America Securities predicts that Hong Kong's economy will rebound significantly next year, and property prices will fall by as much as 20%

The Hong Kong government earlier revised down its economic forecast for this year to a contraction of 3.2%. Pi Xiaoqing, China economist at Bank of America Securities, believes that since the Hong Kong government has relaxed the quarantine arrangements for returning to Hong Kong, the number of Hong Kong residents traveling abroad has recently increased, leading to a rebound in retail consumption in Hong Kong The slowdown is expected to continue until early next year.

Pi Xiaoqing believes that Hong Kong's economy will not rebound significantly until the second half of next year, because the gradual customs clearance with the Mainland will stimulate consumption and drive the property market.

Overall, it is estimated that Hong Kong's economic growth will recover to 3.1% next year and further increase by 4.5% in 2024.

In terms of the property market in Hong Kong, property prices have fallen by about 10% this year. Pi Xiaoqing believes that due to the impact of the US interest rate hike and economic downturn, property prices will continue to decline next year, with a cumulative decline of about 15%-20% this year and next. .

Bank of America predicts that property prices will continue to decline next year, with a cumulative decline of about 15%-20% this year and next.

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Pay attention to leaders' statements on epidemic prevention in the next two weeks

Regarding the Chinese economy, Qiao Hong, Chief Economist of Bank of America Securities Greater China, pointed out that the economic growth in the Mainland this year is expected to be 3%, and it is believed to accelerate to 5.5% next year. Big rebound.

At present, the market estimates that the mainland will not fully relax the epidemic control policy until the second quarter of next year, but she personally prefers to believe that the timing of China's relaxation of epidemic control will be faster than the market expects, because the change of the leadership team in the mainland has been completed, and the new team members are deeply affected. With the trust of the chairman, the implementation of government orders will be smoother.

At the same time, since the announcement of the "20 measures" to optimize the epidemic prevention measures this month, control measures have begun to be relaxed.

The epidemic has hit the economy, and the market is concerned about the leaders' statements on epidemic prevention this week and next.

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With regard to the demonstrations by citizens in many places in the Mainland due to epidemic prevention issues in recent days, she believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the situation in the next two weeks, and judge the impact on the government's relaxation of epidemic control and the overall economic forecast. Or next week's statement, will it explain the overall epidemic policy and explain how to relax control in the future.

She also believes that if the top leaders do not make a clear statement next week, or if there is confusion in the local government's epidemic prevention policy, it will make her more worried about the blow to the economy.

Yuan expected to rebound next year

Regarding the trend of the renminbi, the bank expects that the renminbi will gradually rise against the U.S. dollar next year. It is expected that the renminbi will be at about 7.25 against the U.S. dollar by the end of this year; it will rebound to 7 and 6.8 in 2023 and 2024, respectively.