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Macron must play the "China card" during his visit to the United States. Will the wind direction in Europe change?

2022-11-29T09:16:15.970Z


According to Reuters, French "Echo" and other media reports, in response to the "Inflation Reduction Act" that the United States provides large-scale subsidies to domestic companies, the French and German economic ministers held talks in Paris on November 22 and said that the two


According to Reuters, French newspaper Les Echos and other media reports, in response to the "Inflation Reduction Act" that the United States provides large-scale subsidies to domestic companies, the French and German economic ministers held talks in Paris on November 22 and said that the two countries "stand On the same front", it was agreed that a strong European response was needed.

If no compromise can be reached with Washington, Paris and Berlin will not rule out increasing aid to industry in Europe.

According to a Reuters report on November 25, French President Macron will confront US President Biden on this issue when he visits the United States.

Macron will try to convince the United States that it is in its interest not to undercut European companies at a time when Western allies face stiff economic competition from China.

"You can't ask us to help with China and at the same time hit us with the Inflation Cutting Act," said a French diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Reuters reported that Macron’s visit to the United States was specifically mentioned in the context of the signing of the “Australia-UK-U.S. Alliance (AUKUS)” between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, which caused dissatisfaction on the French side for more than a year. ongoing.

For the US "Inflation Reduction Act", Reuters described it as "the elephant in the Oval Office".

The European side has previously stated that the bill's large-scale subsidies to US manufacturers may deal a fatal blow to the European industry.

From the perspective of Paris and Berlin, this could put European companies at a disadvantage and accelerate the deindustrialization of the EU.

US President Biden (left) and French President Macron before the G20 summit in 2021. Before the two entered the meeting venue, Macron patted each other on the shoulder to show friendship.

(AP)

Macron has previously said that German automakers are among the biggest victims of the U.S. inflation bill because the U.S. is an important export market.

Although French cars are not exported to the United States, French auto parts suppliers will be affected.

German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck also slammed that "the Inflation Cut Act does not comply with the rules set by the World Trade Organization" and "violates several regulations".

A French presidential adviser said Macron would try to secure exemptions for European companies, following a model already in place in Mexico and Canada.

From this perspective, it is worth looking forward to how Macron's visit to the United States will "compete" with Biden.

And what is known is that Macron's visit has been planned.

French Ambassador to China Luo Liang said a few days ago that "he (Macron) also hopes to visit China again."

The meaning of Macron's plan to play the "China card" in the negotiations with Biden is very clear. If the United States does not exempt Europe, Europe will no longer cooperate with the United States' China policy.

Scholz's visit to China actually meant the same thing. To some extent, he couldn't stand the "harvest" of the United States, and threatened the United States with China.

However, observations show that it is difficult for the Biden administration to grant exemptions to Europe, because exemptions to Europe have to grant exemptions to Japan and South Korea.

This will smack your mouth.

After Biden came to power, although he did not say "America First" verbally, he actually did more than Trump.

The two parties in the United States not only reached a high degree of agreement on confronting China, but also reached an agreement on "America First".

Hungary has a well-developed automobile manufacturing industry.

The picture shows the Audi car factory in Gyor, Hungary.

(AP)

The Biden administration's introduction of the "Inflation Reduction Act" is to implement trade protectionism in the name of reducing inflation.

In fact, starting from George W. Bush, successive U.S. governments have been working hard to save the tragedy of the hollowing out of U.S. industries.

The purpose of Trump's trade war is to revitalize the US manufacturing industry, and the Biden administration is just more ingenious.

But have the efforts of successive U.S. governments paid off?

Apparently not, remains to be seen.

But for Europe, which has lost Russia's cheap energy, the European manufacturing industry is indeed flowing out, and the enemy (China) and the back (the United States) are suffering.

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasted for nine months, some European officials accused the United States: "The United States made a lot of war money, but made European countries suffer."

According to reports, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many European countries have announced that they will stop purchasing energy from Russia. However, due to the lack of alternative energy import channels of the same scale in these countries, energy prices have risen sharply, and commodity prices have also soared, causing economic damage. violent shock.

But when these countries were hit, they found that the United States was profiting from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Macron complained at a conference of entrepreneurs in Paris that natural gas in the United States is too expensive.

He said: "We want to tell our American friends that you provide energy (to us), but we have to pay four times the price. For the sake of friendship, this cannot continue."

Qatar, which has the third largest natural gas reserves, awarded a 27-year long-term contract to China, not Europe.

On November 21, Sinopec and Qatar Energy Company signed a 27-year long-term purchase and sales agreement for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar Energy Company will supply 4 million tons of LNG to Sinopec every year.

You must know that on September 25, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Doha, the capital of Qatar, for an official visit, with the purpose of buying Qatari natural gas.

Since the beginning of this year, politicians from many European countries have visited Qatar to "seek inspiration", but Qatar has thrown the hydrangea to China.

In this regard, the United States is also happy to see its success.

China buys cheap natural gas from Qatar, Russia and Iran, while Europe can only buy high-priced natural gas from the United States.

In this way, the United States can not only earn more money, but also increase Europe's dependence on it.

Sinopec and Qatar Energy Company signed a 27-year long-term purchase and sale agreement for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

(Getty)

The cost of energy in the United States will be much higher than that of Russia, which will greatly increase the production cost of European manufacturing and further reduce the competitiveness of European manufacturing.

After the prices of various industrial products in Europe rose, the United States passed the "Inflation Reduction Act" and implemented industrial policies such as issuing clean energy subsidies to American companies, which greatly reduced the prices of products such as electric vehicles produced in the United States, and further seized Europe. business market.

Driven by a series of policies in the United States, Germany's BMW announced in October this year that it will invest 1.7 billion US dollars in the production of electric vehicles in the United States.

In addition, world-class corporate giants such as ArcelorMittal, one of the world's largest steel manufacturers, Dutch fertilizer giant OCI, and German Volkswagen, have also announced their intention to transfer their industries to the United States. Extremely dissatisfied.

All of the above will objectively promote the hollowing out of European industries.

So, will European manufacturing go to countries with cheaper labor such as Vietnam and India?

This possibility is also unlikely, because European manufacturing is in high-end manufacturing, and the manufacturing level of Vietnam and India is still difficult to undertake European manufacturing.

Only China has the ability and the market to undertake high-end manufacturing exported from Europe.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce of China, from January to October 2022, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 1,089.86 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year on a comparable basis (the same below), equivalent to 168.34 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.4%.

The actual use of foreign capital in high-tech industries increased by 31.7%, of which the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 57.2%, and the high-tech service industry increased by 25%.

According to other data, from January to August, the EU's overall investment in China increased by 123.7%.

According to the data from January to October, Germany's actual investment in China increased by 95.8%.

In other words, in the long run, European manufacturing will favor China over the United States.

First, it is already difficult for the United States to recruit a large number of qualified workers and technicians.

Second, even if the United States wants to revive the manufacturing industry, it is unlikely.

The United States needs to change the so-called "happy education" concept in primary and secondary schools, and needs to establish a whole set of education system from technical schools to vocational colleges to engineering and technical universities.

It will take decades.

Third, China has formed the most complete manufacturing system in the world. Even if the United States completes the above-mentioned impossible tasks, it will be difficult to compete with Chinese manufacturing.

This is probably also the reason why Scholz will bring a group of ultra-luxury entrepreneurs, including chemical giants BASF and Wacker Chemicals Group, BMW and Volkswagen in the automotive field, energy company Geo Clima Design, and manufacturing company Siemens, when he visits China. The root cause lies.

On November 4, 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Scholz at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

(AP)

European countries have long felt abhorred by the United States' behavior of "taking advantage of the fire" against Europe, and have long "condemned" the United States.

The situation of Macron’s visit to the United States this time, and whether he will visit China soon, and whether he will bring a luxurious entrepreneurial group like Scholz, and how he will talk to Xi Jinping, will be to observe the triangular relationship between China, the United States, and Europe. important observation point.

The tide in Europe may really be about to change.

France and Germany can be said to be prominent representatives, and this is likely to lead more European countries to accelerate their turn to China and increase their ties with China, so as to make China a "weathervane" for Europe.

I have to say that this is definitely what the United States does not want to see, but the United States can do nothing about it.

For the United States, it will also pay the due price for what it has done, and the United States should have a headache.

Can Macron's two state visits to the United States create a historic diplomatic scene to cover up the division between the United States and Europe?

Macron plans to tell Biden to abandon the inflation-cutting bill if he wants to help China on the G20 summit up?

Scholz's visit to China shows that China-Germany and China-EU relations choose to decouple or save the economy?

Analysis of the purpose of Scholz's visit to China|What foreign media think

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-11-29

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