In Bakhmout, in Donetsk Oblast, the fierce battle between Russians and Ukrainians continues with deadly offensives for a few kilometers.
At the end of last week, photos of trenches with soldiers buried in the mud were published by the Ukrainian authorities, demonstrating the violence of the fighting.
The Russian army, and especially the group of Wagner mercenaries, have been trying to take the city since May 17.
"
Wagner has been there for a long time because they participated in the breakthrough of Popasna on May 7 which led to the collapse of the Kramatorsk salient
", recalls military historian Cédric Mas.
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The Russians had then "
made a big effort to take Sieverodonetsk and Lyman, an important railway junction
", estimates Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
But the Ukrainian counter-offensive at the end of August and the release of Izioum and Lyman, two important communication nodes, reconfigured the front.
"
Bahmut, who was behind the front, then takes on a new importance
", adds the researcher.
However, this city populated by more than 70,000 inhabitants before the invasion does not present any particular strategic interest.
"
It's a marketing stunt for the Kremlin who would like to afford a victory.
Possession of Bakhmout, ruined by months of shelling, will bring nothing decisive because the Russians will come up against heights and new Ukrainian defense lines in the direction of Kramatorsk
,” notes Cédric Mas.
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In addition, the progression proves to be difficult.
In question, the equal number of fighters on both sides, despite the arrival of reinforcements from Kherson since its abandonment, but also effective entrenchments.
"
In the Donbass, the lines have been fortified since 2015, which explains the rather slow progress in this area
," says Thibault Fouillet.
The Russians also come up against a tactical blockage: “
it is a logic where fire is superior to movement
”, he abounds.
“
The defense is too superior to the attack and the stop fire is very effective
”, continues Cédric Mas.
The assailant after having bombarded tried to advance, but ran into the enemy whose artillery stopped his breakthrough.
"
Each advance is costly and difficult to register in the long term because it consumes means and soldiers.
This explains why the front freezes, then heats up.
During the First World War, this period had been overcome thanks to the plane/tank couple.
But here, drones and artillery complicate an armored offensive
”, deciphers Thibault Fouillet.
Ukrainian soldiers in trenches near Bakhmout.
LEAH MILLIS / REUTERS
“
Finally, the quality differential between the two infantry is important.
The Ukrainians are motivated, biting and do not wait for orders to act.
Opposite, the soldiers are poorly motivated, which explains the use of mercenaries
,” says the military historian.
A job that “
highlights the points of difficulty of the Russian weapon.
It is easier to use mercenaries than mobilized soldiers where you have to report to the families in the event of death
, ”specifies Thibault Fouillet.
However, and contrary to the reinforcement of communication employed with the Chechens in Mariupol, the Kremlin seems less inclined to underline their importance in these fights.
Russian communication focuses on the modest advances in Bakhmout, recalling one of the announced objectives: the "
liberation
” of the annexed oblasts of Donbass.
These costly battles in human lives also allow both sides to "
fix
" the opposing troops on a specific point.
Thus, the Russian reinforcements from Kherson cannot be used for another offensive, on the contrary the Ukrainians cannot reallocate their soldiers to another front, or to rest them.
For several weeks, several pro-Russian accounts have been openly worried about a Ukrainian breakthrough around Zaporizhia towards Melitopol.
And Crimea.
