From our correspondent in Brussels
No progress on the independence of justice or the fight against corruption, no European money.
After months of discussions with the Hungarian government, the Commission has followed through on its threats.
The European executive proposed on Wednesday to suspend some 13 billion euros promised in Budapest.
And this, as long as the Hungarian government has not carried out the essential reforms demanded by Brussels.
"Our whole assessment is based on facts, on figures and not on emotions, on assumptions"
, justified the commissioner in charge of the Budget, Johannes Hahn.
This is a serious setback for the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, when Budapest thought it could twist the arm of Brussels by multiplying the vetoes on essential files for the EU, in particular the minimum global tax on multinationals or even the macro-financial aid of 18 billion euros promised to Ukraine for 2023 which requires a unanimous vote of the Member States.
Or even by delaying the vote on the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO in the Hungarian Parliament.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Hungarian authorities were also keeping a low profile.
“We are going to put in place the additional measures required and, in 2023, we have no doubt that we will be able to convince the Commission (…) that it is not necessary to suspend the funds”
, declared the Hungarian negotiator Tibor Navracsics, claiming that
"there is nothing new"
in the Commission's decision.
Gergely Gulyas, Viktor Orban's chief of staff, also downplayed the significance of this case, saying it was about clearing up
"misunderstandings"
that remain
"on a few points"
.
Still, Budapest needs the funds as the country records a record inflation rate of 21% - the highest in the EU - and the national currency loses its value.
In concrete terms, the Commission's decision relates to two partly separate procedures.
First, conditionality on the rule of law, a mechanism in operation since January 2021 which authorizes Member States - following a recommendation from the Commission - to freeze European funds whose proper use would not be guaranteed due to corruption. , unfair procurement procedure, etc.
This is the very first time that this mechanism has been activated.
In September, Brussels had estimated that 7.5 billion euros of cohesion funds were
"at risk"
and had asked Budapest to implement seventeen measures to remedy this endemic corruption in the country: reduce conflicts of interest by publishing declarations of assets, increase the number of bidders for public contracts in a country where there is no There is often only one candidate, to strengthen audits and control of funds...
“A historic decision”
The government had until November 19 to submit its copy.
But despite some progress, the results requested by Brussels have not all been forthcoming.
Johannes Hahn admits: “
It is important to start by saying, regarding our assessment, that Hungary has gone in the right direction.
We can already conclude that the conditionality regulation was and is the right tool to apply: we obtained reform commitments that would never have happened otherwise
.”
Another parallel but related procedure: the release of funds from the Hungarian recovery plan which would allow Budapest to collect 5.3 billion euros.
The Commission has given the green light to the Hungarian recovery plan but without taking a big risk, since none of the funds will be released until progress has been made.
This rule applies to the other Member States.
Except that Hungary starts from very far.
It will have to fulfill ten more essential conditions – twenty-seven in total – for Brussels to agree to disburse a first tranche of 800 million euros.
Next March.
"No funding will be disbursed until the 'essential milestones' have been properly implemented
," warned Commission Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis.
Many of the reforms requested relate to the independence of justice in a country where this cardinal value is flouted.
Budapest is called upon to give more power to the Council of the Judiciary, to modify the functioning of the Supreme Court in order to limit the risks of political influence by ensuring in particular that its president is indeed a judge, or even to abolish the possibility for the Constitutional Court to review decisions made by judges at the request of the Hungarian authorities.
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The ball is in the Member States' court.
The Commission seems confident that its proposal will obtain the required qualified majority.
A first substantive exchange between EU diplomats is scheduled for Thursday, before the measures are adopted at a meeting of EU finance ministers on December 6, or possibly the following week.
Viktor Orban could also be tempted to raise the subject at the level of the Heads of State and Government who will meet in Brussels on December 14 and 15.
Both in the European Parliament and in the Council, very few imagined ten days ago that the Commission would be so firm in its decision.
The strong pressure of the progressive elected officials of Strasbourg played.
The German environmental MEP, Daniel Freund, relativizes.
“The freezing of European funds is obviously a historic decision.
But these 7.5 billion euros represent only 20% of the amounts promised to Hungary in the 2021-2027 budget.
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