Players of the Argentina national team during the match against Mexico, on November 26, 2022, in Lusail (Qatar). Rungroj Yongrit (EFE)
The outcome of Group C promises drama: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland reach the last date with options to sneak into the round of 16.
After the eventful debut against Saudi Arabia (1-2) and the victory against Mexico at the weekend, those led by Scaloni will face leader Poland as second in the sector, with three points and a barely positive goal difference (+1). .
According to the statistical model of EL PAÍS, Argentina has an 80% probability of going to the second phase, 65% of doing so as group leader and 16% of mathematical options of getting among the best 16 of the tournament as second place.
With the activity of Group D concluded, the crosses are defined: the first place in Group C will face Australia in the round of 16, while France awaits the second classified in the sector.
Argentina qualifies for the round of 16 if…
win over poland
Adding the three points is the easiest way to qualify for the next phase.
A victory against Lewandowski's Poland ensures first place in Group C and therefore, face Australia next Saturday at 4:00 p.m. (Argentine time).
Tie and Mexico tie with Saudi Arabia
A draw against Poland compromises the pass and forces the albiceleste to wait for an identical result in Mexico - Saudi Arabia, which will be played simultaneously.
If both games end with points being shared, then Poland would advance to the round of 16 as group leaders.
Although Argentina and Arabia would tie with four points, the goal difference, the first tiebreaker, would favor 'Scaloneta' to finish second in the group.
The crossing in eighths would be with France on Sunday, December 4.
Tie and Mexico win by less than 4-0
In addition to the above scenario, the only way to advance to the round of 16 by drawing against Poland is to wait for a 4-0 victory for Mexico against Arabia.
With Argentina and Mexico equal on four points, the goal difference would play in favor of the albiceleste, who would advance as second in the group.
Argentina is out if...
Draw and Saudi Arabia win
A draw against Poland combined with a Saudi win over Mexico leaves Argentina with no chance of qualifying for the round of 16.
The three points from their debut would catapult the Arabs to the top of Group C with six points, followed by Poland with five.
Misses
A loss to Poland would mean the end of Argentina's participation in Qatar 2022.
