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Finland and Sweden have so far failed to join NATO: what is Turkey objecting to?

2022-12-03T02:13:46.585Z


On June 28, on the eve of the NATO summit in Madrid, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Finnish


On June 28, on the eve of the NATO summit in Madrid, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö , The then Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson held four-party talks.

After the meeting, Turkey agreed with Sweden and Finland to join NATO, and signed a tripartite memorandum of accession with the two countries.


According to Turkey's Anadolu Agency (Anadolu Agency), the memorandum contained Turkey's requirements, including that Finland and Sweden must keep a distance from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and based on the information, evidence and intelligence provided by Turkey, assist in the deportation of or Extradite terrorist suspects back to Turkey, and at the same time promise not to support the "Gulen Movement" and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its affiliated armed organization "People's Protection Forces" (YPG), and lift the arms embargo on Turkey.

At that time, Stoltenberg had expressed optimism that Finland and Sweden would be formally invited to join NATO at the summit on June 29, and the two countries were likely to formally become members within a few months.

However, judging from the follow-up development, Turkey obviously has some disagreements.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said in August that since Finland and Sweden had not yet extradited "terrorists" involved in the Gulen movement, Turkey could not agree to the two countries joining NATO; until November, Turkey continued to use similar rhetoric Prevent both countries from joining.

Then Turkey became more and more targeted at Sweden, and demanded almost unreasonable troubles: Ankara asked Sweden to fire an official because he participated in a pro-PKK rally 10 years ago; there were rallies against PKK sympathizers in Sweden, and anti-Erdogan appeared at the meeting slogan, Turkey asked the Swedish government to identify the participants.

For this reason, the new Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson visited Turkey on November 8, hoping to persuade the Turkish side to support Sweden's joining NATO, but it was still difficult to make progress.

On November 30, after meeting with the foreign ministers of Finland and Switzerland, Cavusoglu said that "more concrete actions need to be seen", apparently still unwilling to let go.

Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu.

(Reuters)

where is the problem?

Not only is the Swedish government struggling, but its internal public opinion is also infuriated by making things difficult for Turkey.

In view of the fact that NATO expansion requires a unanimous decision, since Finland and Switzerland formally submitted their applications for membership in May, Turkey has continued to "monopoly" and prevented the two countries from joining the treaty. The London movement, the arms embargo and other fields have made concessions, hoping to get a ticket to join NATO.

Take the Swedish government as an example. In August, it agreed to extradite a "terrorist" that Turkey claimed. In order to avoid criticism from domestic opposition voices, it tried its best to claim that the extradition "has nothing to do with joining NATO" and is in line with normal legal procedures. ; By September, Sweden officially lifted the ban on arms exports to Turkey.

However, the above-mentioned concessions failed to win Ankara's nod, but caused criticism in Sweden one after another.

The opposition accused Swedish officials of trying their best to please Erdogan with no dignity, and the new Prime Minister Christesson, who will take office after October, has become a target.

After Christesson visited Turkey on November 8, Dagens Nyheter published a commentary by well-known journalist Alex Schulman: "Christesson must stop humiliating Turkey Myself", the article sarcastically said, "Yes, we humiliated ourselves, but it was worth it, because this trip will definitely pay off. Kristsson will get a long and warm hug from Erdogan, and Erdoğan Ann will tell him: Welcome to NATO, my friend"; "In three weeks, Erdogan will come to Sweden, which means that the humiliation will continue on Swedish soil. But this time, Christsen will not will be the only one to be humiliated, when the king will have to bow and the queen will put the tiara in front of him”; The dark humor of Schulman's essay.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

(Getty)

In all fairness, looking back at the relevant conditions that Turkey has offered since June, its role is more of a smoke bomb than Ankara's heart.

Firstly, whether it is the Kurdish separatist forces or the participants of the Gülen movement, Finland and Sweden have played far less protective roles than the United States, and Fethullah Gülen himself has been in exile in the United States for many years; secondly, the so-called "Fenrui Arms embargo against Turkey” is rooted in the joint sanctions initiated by the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom after Turkey entered northern Syria in 2019, but only France, Spain and The United Kingdom can barely be called an arms "supplier" to Turkey, while Finland and Sweden account for very little.

To sum up, Turkey's real asking price target at that time should be the United States, which hopes to expand NATO, and Russia, which does not want the two countries to join the treaty.

After all, on June 29, the day after Turkey announced the release of Finland and Sweden, the Joe Biden administration announced its support for the plan to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Through secret negotiations and transactions.

At present, Erdogan is making things difficult, and the reason is obviously not because of Sweden and Finland's "inaccurate performance of the contract."

Some analysts in Sweden believe that Erdogan will face the presidential election in 2023, but Turkey’s economic situation is not good at the moment. He should deliberately show his image as a "leader of a major country" by "bullying" Sweden and manipulating NATO , calling out more votes.

Erdogan's government is embracing Turkey's most serious economic crisis.

(Getty Images)

Turkey's needs for NATO are different than in the past

Regardless of whether Sweden's speculation is true or not, Turkey's demand for NATO is indeed different from the past.

During the Cold War era, in order to check and balance the geopolitical threats of the Soviet Union and realize its dream of becoming a "Western country", Turkey tightly tied its national security strategy to the NATO chariot.

However, after the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, differences between Turkey and NATO allies gradually widened.

First, Turkey and Syria have a 911-kilometer border, and the civil war has become a real source of threat to Turkey, but Europe cannot empathize with it; second, the Syrian civil war has gradually evolved into a proxy war, and Russia and Iran firmly support Assad ( Bashar al-Assad regime, NATO allies are reluctant to intervene too much, leaving Turkey feeling isolated and helpless; three times, after the rise of the "Islamic State" (IS), the United States chose to cooperate with the Kurdish armed forces in Syria to fight terrorism, while Turkey Has always been hostile to the Kurdish forces, so it fell to the side of Russia and Iran on Syrian affairs.

Since then, Turkey has increasingly pursued an independent policy on national security and gradually reduced its defense dependence on NATO, including the purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, the establishment of military bases in Qatar (2015) and Somalia (2017), and the establishment of military bases in Syria. Independently launch military operations with Libya, maintain military presence in northern Iraq and "Northern Cyprus", and foster the development of local defense industries.

Turkey's procurement of the S-400 is the first for a NATO member state.

(VCG)

After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, the "same bed and different dreams" between Turkey and NATO will become more obvious.

In addition to preventing Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, Turkey has not positioned Russia's military actions as "aggression", nor has it followed the trend of Europe and the United States in joining sanctions against Russia.

Judging from the results, maintaining a certain strategic distance from NATO has given Turkey room to play its mediation role.

In the final analysis, with the changes in the international situation, the traditional alliance strategy, which is highly coordinated with NATO, no longer meets the needs of Turkey's current national interests, whether it is internal affairs, military or diplomatic fields.

Even so, it is an unrealistic fantasy to infer that Turkey will part ways with NATO.

First of all, observing the differences between Turkey and NATO allies, the essence is more of a "distributive strategic difference", that is, different perceptions of defining enemies, rather than competing for the dominance of the alliance; secondly, Turkey has indeed been friendly with Russia in recent years, attracting The remaining NATO allies do not understand, but the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 not only meets the needs of national defense independence, but also reflects the pragmatism of balanced diplomacy. Turkey intends to create an external environment that "attracts all parties to fight for itself"; in addition, Turkey The cooperation mechanism with NATO has not been fundamentally damaged. In 2021, Turkey took over the command of the "NATO High Alert Joint Task Force" (VJTF) under the NATO Rapid Response Force from Poland. The 66th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Turkish Army (4,200 soldiers) became the core of the force, and the normal transition of command of the army shows that the alliance infighting has not affected Turkey's role in NATO.

From the perspective of Turkey's geographical location, NATO is its institutional force to balance Russia's influence, and it is also an important fulcrum for it to balance Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean; for NATO, the Turkish air force base is also an important asset.

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, both sides will maintain the institutional relationship under the NATO framework, but Turkey's strategic perception is different from the past. "Own.

From strategic attachment to strategic autonomy, regardless of whether Finland and Sweden will eventually join the treaty, the relationship between Turkey and the NATO alliance has undergone profound changes.

What is Turkey's reason for making things difficult for Finland and Sweden to join the treaty?

The two countries have not actually fulfilled the agreement, including the extradition of terrorists whom Turkey considers to be terrorists.

Will the differences between Turkey and NATO cause the two to part ways?

Not in the short term, Turkey needs NATO to help balance Russia and the Eastern Mediterranean, and NATO also needs Turkey's air force base.

Airstrikes ordered on World Cup opening day: Turkey is also preparing for a "special military operation"?

What is Turkey planning in the first meeting between senior US and Russian officials since the war?

Finland and Sweden are just smoke bombs: the position of the United States and Russia is the key to Turkey's release of NATO

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-12-03

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