By Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee -
NBC News
Nearly two months after President Joe Biden vowed "there will be consequences" for Saudi Arabia's actions to cut oil production, the United States is not actively considering any significant retaliatory action against the kingdom, according to two US officials. .
Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a low point after this country pressured members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production by two million barrels per day at their meeting on 6 October.
But since then gas prices have not skyrocketed as US officials feared.
In fact, analysts now believe they could fall below $3 a gallon before the end of the year.
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With that, the White House's initial unease over the decision eased, the officials said.
The upcoming OPEC meeting this Sunday, December 4, is seen by Administration officials as another turning point, with some hoping the outcome of the meeting will give the president a way out of his promise to retaliate for the October production cut.
However, officials also expect a cost to be imposed on Saudi Arabia to rise again if OPEC cuts oil production again.
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White House officials said they are still evaluating relations with the Saudis.
“This is an eight-decade relationship and we will continue to evaluate relations with Saudi Arabia methodically and strategically, and in accordance with what interests us,” an official clarified in a statement.
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"We will judge the way forward based on their actions, as well as our ongoing consultations with partners and allies, the new Congress and the Saudis," he added.
Biden Administration officials and members of Congress immediately denounced the October decision, with National Security Council spokesman John Kirby saying the Saudis knew it would "increase Russia's revenue and reduce the effectiveness of sanctions." .
Members of Congress from both sides of the aisle also expressed outrage, threatening to halt arms sales and even withdraw US troops from both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets President Joe Biden upon his arrival at Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15. Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP
Several days after the OPEC announcement, the White House announced that it would review the relationship with Saudi Arabia and whether it still serves US interests.
Kirby said then that Biden would consult with lawmakers on the issue after the midterm elections.
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But the review never really caught on, according to officials, and there are no real options on the table for responding to the Saudi decision.
An administration official said the real goal throughout was to devise ways to annoy the Saudis without actually changing the relationship.
"There is a recognition that as Arabia goes, the Gulf goes," another US official said.
“We need the security association,” he added.
The official added that the relationship benefits the United States in the region because it provides a central location to base troops and equipment.
If OPEC decides to cut production again on Sunday, Saudi Arabia's relationship with the United States could be permanently tarnished, according to an administration official.
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While US officials aren't sure Sunday's meeting will lead to another shift in production, they say as long as gasoline prices remain low, the consequences the White House threatened earlier this fall could not come to fruition unless members of Congress follow through on their promises to retaliate.
Although the president has said that he will meet with Congress to discuss the issue, he has not yet done so.
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The Biden Administration's reversal on the oil issue is not the first time it has failed to follow through on a threat to Saudi Arabia.
In the run-up to the 2020 election, Biden vowed to treat Saudi Arabia as a "pariah" state in response to the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
However, he traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in July, exchanging a fist bump that intensified criticism of the decision to make the trip.
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Bin Salman, who the CIA says likely ordered Khashoggi's assassination, has said he takes full responsibility but denies any involvement in the killing of the journalist, once a disillusioned regime insider and later an outspoken critic. of the crown prince.
For now, the only fallout facing the Saudis since the October announcement comes from the Capitol, where arms sales to the kingdom are likely to be frozen for the foreseeable future.
