After French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to the United States last week, the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine situation has indeed undergone some subtle changes.
When meeting with reporters with Macron, Biden changed his previous attitude of "nothing to talk about" and expressed his willingness to negotiate with Putin: "I am ready to talk to him, if he is willing to find a way to end the war, But he hasn't done that yet. If that's the case, in consultation with my French and NATO friends, I would be happy to sit down with Putin and see what he wants."
It is worth noting that Biden did not immediately mention respecting the wishes of Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Instead, following Biden's response to reporters, Macron, who has always been considered to be advocating pressure on Ukraine to cede territory for peace, quickly made up for this lack, mentioning Zelensky's "ten-point peace plan" as soon as he opened his mouth, and Said that "when (peace talks) and what the choice of the Ukrainians will be (Zelensky) will tell us", claiming that "we will not push the Ukrainians to make compromises they cannot accept."
Before Biden and Macron finished speaking, the action of Europe and the United States to set conditions for peace talks began to take shape.
First, on the first day of Macron's official state visit to the United States, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the establishment of a "special court" to deal with Russian war crimes that did not participate in the International Criminal Court (ICC), It also claimed that hundreds of billions of euros of Russian government and civilian assets frozen in Europe can be used to compensate Ukraine.
On November 30, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the establishment of a "special court" to deal with Russia's war crimes in Ukraine.
(Reuters)
In this regard, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately expressed support, and the Baltic countries and the Netherlands, where the International Criminal Court is located, also expressed the same opinion.
The "Guardian" reported on December 4 that a draft resolution on the establishment of such a special court for war crimes was being circulated at the United Nations. The United States, which does not participate in the ICC, has yet to take a formal position on the creation of a special court).
After returning to China, Macron also began to create public opinion on another issue, telling the media that Putin’s concerns about “NATO’s expansion to Russia’s gates” and “weapons deployment that may threaten Russia” will be the topic of peace negotiations, pointing out that NATO needs to Be ready to offer "security guarantees" to Russia in case Russia returns to the negotiating table.
The remarks drew public criticism from Ukraine, which said Ukraine was the one that needed security guarantees.
On the other hand, after more than two months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putin again on December 2, asking Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine in order to facilitate a "diplomatic solution." He also criticized Russia's targeting of Ukraine's infrastructure. s attack.
However, after nearly an hour of telephony between the two, Putin criticized Western countries (including Germany) for weapons aid and military training to Ukraine as "destructive", indicating that attacking Ukraine's infrastructure is "necessary and unavoidable." .
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putin again on December 2, asking Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine in order to facilitate a "diplomatic solution."
(Reuters)
Putin's reaction to Scholz echoed Biden's words "but he hasn't done it yet."
However, after the call, Scholz stated that it was a major mistake to completely stop communication with Uputin, indicating that he and Macron would continue to seek dialogue with Putin without any illusions.
Just as Putin has always believed that the Western aid front will be broken over time, now leaders of European and American countries have also seen that Putin will not be able to defeat Ukraine by war in the long run, so they will eventually return to the negotiating table.
In fact, Scholz stated on November 23 that Putin "is no longer able to win on the battlefield, it seems clear".
Before Scholz could finish his words, the Ukrainian army reported on December 3 that a counterattack bridgehead had been established on the east bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson in the south, and Putin’s nearly two-month-old infrastructure attack has not yet been confirmed. Can shake the hearts of the Ukrainian people.
Based on this judgment on the situation in the Ukrainian battlefield, European and American countries are adopting a strategy of "walking on two legs". On the one hand, it sets the conditions for future peace negotiations and prepares for Putin's decision to "seek to end the war".
The initiative of the Special War Crimes Court from von der Leyen, supported by France, is a tough condition that is unfavorable to Russia. Its survival and specific form will be determined by the final comparison of the pros and cons of Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield.
The security guarantee for Russia from Macron is a step down for Putin, perhaps as a quid pro quo for Putin to withdraw the decision of the four Ukrainian states to join Russia.
Because Ukraine is willing to negotiate or not, in the final analysis, it is actually the decision of European and American countries.
At this moment, Europe and the United States have assumed the posture of promoting talks while fighting. As long as Putin is willing to seek an end to the war, negotiations can start.
But in the imagination of Europe and the United States, such negotiations will undoubtedly be carried out under the background of Europe and the United States, and Putin can only cover up his failure through the steps given by Europe and the United States.
Whether the judgment of European and American countries is correct, of course, can only be verified by the deduction of reality over time.
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