US secret service sees winter plan in Ukraine war: Russian soldiers "burn" ammunition
Created: 2022-12-05 04:52
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi, Stephanie Munk
Moscow probably lost a significant part of its Black Sea fleet in the Ukraine war.
The army is also said to be running out of ammunition.
News ticker on military events.
US intelligence director
on
Putin's army
: Soldiers "burn" ammunition
Russian media report
on the
Black Sea Fleet
: Moscow has lost numerous ships.
Attack
on
school
: Russian soldiers are said to have set fire to buildings.
This
news ticker on military events in the Ukraine war
is updated regularly.
Update from December 4, 6:57 p.m
.: The US secret services expect the Ukraine war to slow down further over the course of the winter.
A reduced pace of fighting can already be observed and both parties to the conflict are trying to reposition themselves for further fighting in the spring, US intelligence coordinator Avril Haines said at a military forum in California.
However, there is a "certain degree of skepticism" in intelligence circles as to whether the Russian armed forces are even prepared for renewed fighting in March.
In this respect, the view of the Ukrainians is more optimistic, according to Haines.
This is also due to the fact that Putin's army "burns" ammunition.
Update from December 4th, 10:24 a.m
.: The support for Putin seems to be crumbling in the Russian population.
That's what a recently leaked poll suggested.
The British secret service now agrees with this assessment: It is becoming "increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to obtain even tacit approval," according to the latest update from the Ministry of Defense in London.
The intelligence officials assume "that Russia will hardly achieve any significant successes on the battlefield in the coming months".
It will therefore be difficult to justify the war in front of one's own population.
According to the British, leaked data from Russian authorities shows that only a quarter of the Russian population now supports the war of aggression.
At the beginning of the war it was still 80 percent.
However, the partial mobilization in Russia made the war felt for many people there.
Unpleasant poll results for Vladimir Putin © IMAGO / SNA
US intelligence director on Putin's army: soldiers "burn" ammunition
Update from December 4, 9:09 a.m
.: Putin's soldiers use up their ammunition faster than the Russian arms industry can resupply.
That's what Avril Haines, director of US national intelligence, told NBC.
"I can't give you a specific value.
But they do it pretty quickly.
It's really unusual.”
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Moscow is now trying to get supplies from North Korea under ruler Kim Jong Un, among other things, Haines said.
"We have the impression that Russia is not able to produce it itself at the moment.
That will be a challenge.”
Photo from October 2022: Recruits with ammunition at a firing range in southern Russia © Uncredited/AP/dpa
Zelenskyy speaks about the "most painful" front in the current fighting in Ukraine
Update from December 3, 9:25 p.m .:
After a meeting with military officers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj described the front in the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar in eastern Ukraine as the “hottest and most painful” in the current fighting.
In addition, Selenskyj confirmed the shooting down of a Russian fighter plane in the area and congratulated the border guards for it.
While you are strengthening your own troops in Luhansk and Kharkiv, you are destroying the combat capability of Russian troops in the south.
Ukraine war: Ukraine apparently shoots down Russian fighter plane
Update from December 3, 7:45 p.m .:
The Ukrainian border guards want to have shot down a Russian fighter plane near the contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, the authority said on Facebook.
A "precise shot" from a shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missile downed a Russian Su-34 worth around $50 million, Border Patrol officials claimed.
The fate of the pilot of the machine is currently unknown.
Update from December 3, 6:45 p.m .:
In the Ukraine war, the fighting in eastern Ukraine continues.
According to pro-Russian militias told the Russian state news agency Tass, the Ukrainian military has stationed three assault troops in the direction of the city of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast.
Andrey Marchonko, a military officer of the so-called "Luhansk People's Republic" accused the Ukrainian military of reinforcing these troops with Polish and German mercenaries.
Shoigu visits Belarus - Putin's minister accuses the USA of a "hostile course".
Update from December 3, 5:30 p.m .:
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Belarusian capital Minsk and met his counterpart Viktor Chrenin there.
Shoigu and Khrenin exchanged views on military cooperation between the two countries, according to a report by Russia's state news agency
Ria
Novosti
.
The meeting is also said to have been about the Russian-Belarusian combat force in Belarus.
Actions are now being carried out on Belarusian territory to ensure the combat coordination of the joint unit,
Ria Novosti
reported , citing Shoigu.
Vladimir Putin's defense minister apparently also praised Belarus' "determination" against the "hostile course" of the US.
He also described Belarus as a "reliable partner".
The minister accused the West of “unprecedented pressure” and an “undeclared war against our countries”.
War in Ukraine: Authorities prepare Ukrainian population for power cuts
Update from December 3, 3:07 p.m
.: On Saturday, the Ukrainian authorities called on the population of the Mykolaiv region to “hang in there”.
More power cuts are expected.
From Monday (December 5) he will urge the operator Oblenergo to revise its plans for the region, Vitaly Kim, governor of the Mykolayiv region in southern Ukraine, told the online service Telegram.
"There will very likely be four-hour shutdowns."
Because power consumption is increasing, longer supply interruptions are necessary to relieve the regional power grid.
"We have to hold on," he appealed to the people of the region.
Ukraine wants to evacuate people around Kherson in the coming days
Update from December 3, 2:46 p.m
.: Because the Ukrainian government is assuming an “intensification of hostilities” around Cherson, people east of the Dnipro River are called upon to leave the region.
They would be evacuated between December 3 and 5, according to regional governor Yaroslav Yanushevych.
As reported by the Kyiv Independent on Twitter, eight regions in the south, east and north of the country were attacked by Russia on December 3.
According to regional governors, settlements were the targets of the attacks.
Russia deploys Black Sea Fleet cruise missiles off the coast of Ukraine
Update from December 3, 1:29 p.m
.: New statements on the Russian Black Sea Fleet: Russia is currently relocating 16 sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles off the Ukrainian coast.
The purpose is a new major offensive.
That's what Ukrainian military spokeswoman Natalia Humeniuk said, according to the
Kyiv Independent
.
The information could not be independently verified at first.
“Disproportionate”: The secret service only expects a symbolic victory in a Putin-military maneuver
Update from December 3, 12:19 p.m
.: It is not only the Russian Black Sea Fleet that is suffering losses.
In the war of aggression against Ukraine, Putin's soldiers also engaged in a disproportionately costly battle for Bakhmut.
The advantage of capturing the city (Donetsk region) is not in proportion to the price Moscow is paying for it, according to the latest intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence.
Although taking Bakhmut would give Russia an opportunity to threaten major urban centers such as the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, it would only be of "limited operational value," the British added.
It is therefore a realistic possibility that the capture of the city has become primarily a symbolic, political goal for the Kremlin.
"Like something out of Star Wars": Ukraine soldiers tell how they stop Putin's killer drones
Update from December 3, 12:02 p.m
.: In the fight against the Russian attackers, the Ukrainians are now specializing in detecting self-detonating drones.
Some of them feel reminded of "Star Wars".
The details and descriptions of the Ukrainian drone counter-attack here.
Russian media report on the Black Sea Fleet: Moscow has lost numerous ships
Update from December 3, 11:12 a.m
.: The Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost more than 15 percent of its ships since the beginning of the war.
This is reported by the
Proekt
platform .
Accordingly, at least twelve of their ships were sunk or badly damaged in the fighting.
At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet consisted of 74 ships and corvettes.
In 1990 there were even 800 ships, 274 of them warships.
By 2014, that number had dropped drastically, the authors write.
Proekt
is an independent Russian media channel.
Ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet off Crimea (archive image from 2014) © Ulf Mauder/dpa
Fear of Russia's next major offensive: Selenskyj warns of winter
Update from December 3, 10:11 am:
Volodymyr Zelenskyj fears a massive attack by Russian troops as soon as the temperatures in Ukraine fall below minus ten degrees.
According to information from the
Nexta
portal, this was announced by the Office of the President of Ukraine.
"It was a special day": Zelenskyj celebrates the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war
Update from December 3,
8:39 a.m.: In a short ceremony, President Volodymyr Zelenskyj celebrated the return of some Ukrainian prisoners of war.
"It was a special day in a special week," said the Ukrainian President in his recent video address.
At the same time, he announced that he would bring more of his soldiers back from Russian prison camps.
“We will not leave a single Ukrainian in Russian prisons, camps and 'isolations' (detention centers).
We think of everyone.”
Fuel depot under fire: "Unfortunately, there are victims"
Update from December 2, 9:11 p.m .:
Ukrainian forces hit a fuel depot in Shakhtarsk in the Donbass in a rocket attack on Friday.
Donbass is a large coal and industrial area on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Mayor Alexander Shatov from the pro-Russian administration there said that several people had been injured.
The Russian state agency Tass had previously reported on the attack.
"The tank farm was hit, unfortunately there are victims," quotes the Shatov agency.
So far it was unclear what effects the two Ukrainian rocket hits had in the camp.
No information was given about this.
According to the Russian account, the Ukrainian armed forces are said to have used Himar-type artillery rocket launchers in the attack.
However, the information could not be verified.
Attack on school: Russian soldiers are said to have set buildings on fire
Update from December 2, 6:47 p.m .:
After there was an air alert due to Russian attacks in the Ukrainian regions of Cherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Kharkiv, a daring provocation is said to have occurred in Zaporizhia on Friday when the Russian occupiers set fire to a school building and blamed Ukraine.
"In the village of Mykhailivka in the temporarily occupied area of the Zaporizhia region, accusing the defense forces of destroying civilian infrastructure, the enemy set fire to the building of the Mykhailiv Higher Vocational School," the
Unian
news agency quoted the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as saying
Explanation.
Bulgaria wants to support Ukraine with arms and ammunition
Update from December 2, 3:45 p.m .:
Bulgaria also wants to support Ukraine militarily, but only with what the country can afford.
According to the Russian state news agency Tass, Economy and Industry Minister Nikola Stoyanov said his country would send small arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
"Yes, it's not tanks, we're talking about handguns and ammunition, we're helping with what we can afford," Tass quoted the minister as saying.
This will not affect the combat capability of their own military, Stoyanov assured.
Russia launches another missile attack – air alert in five Ukrainian regions
Update from December 2, 1:55 p.m .:
According to the Ukrainian news agency Unian, there was an air alert due to Russian attacks in the Ukrainian regions of Cherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Kharkiv.
Citing the local publication
Suspilny
, the agency also reported explosions in the city of Dnipro, where Ukrainian air defense is now also active.
In recent days, Ukrainian sources have repeatedly warned of Russian plans to launch massive air and missile attacks on Ukraine again.
Update from December 2, 12:10 p.m .:
Russia has launched attacks in the Kherson region again in the past 24 hours.
The Ukrainian governor of the region, Yaroslav Yanushevich, reports on the Telegram news service that grenades have also been thrown into residential areas, private houses and high-rise buildings.
Three civilians were killed and seven injured.
Russia probably has massive logistics problems in the Ukraine war
Update from December 2, 11:16 a.m .:
Putin's army has apparently been struggling with logistical problems since it withdrew because of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region.
This is what the British Ministry of Defense writes in a recent report.
The Ukrainian troops have recently been able to attack Russian logistics hubs and communication channels more easily, which is probably why Russia is moving the hubs further south and east.
In addition, a lot of equipment now has to be transported on roads instead of rails - on the road, the transports are again easily attacked.
The logistical problems would probably lead to the fact that the Russian troops lack ammunition, according to the British.
That is why Russia would hardly launch effective ground offensives at the moment.
Hundreds of deserters arrested at the border: Russia's problems in the Ukraine war are increasing
Donetsk/Washington – Low morale, many deserters and conscientious objectors: This is what the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” reported in an analysis on Thursday (December 1).
Oleksiy Hromov, a high-ranking representative of the Ukrainian army, explained that Russia had already had to reinforce several units in the Kherson region with new recruits.
The reason is the many deserters and a number of soldiers who refused to continue fighting against Ukrainians.
Low morale, hundreds of deserters: Russian soldiers are apparently trying to flee from the front
According to Russian security officials, there is also an increasing number of Russian deserters in Luhansk, according to Hromov.
Many would try to get back to Russia across the border and had already been arrested by the hundreds by Russian security forces.
According to the independent Russian news portal
Astra
, around 90 soldiers who refused to fight were detained by Russian forces for more than a month - in a children's camp in the village of Makarowe, as the ISW writes.
Ukraine-News: Military leadership should abandon front-line soldiers
Family members of deserted soldiers are said to have contacted the public prosecutor's office to ensure that the men do not have to go back to the front.
A local Russian news website reported on this, according to the think tank.
The recruits were "abandoned" by the military leadership at the front, after which they withdrew from their positions.
In addition, the equipment in the Russian army is said to be miserable and the mood among the soldiers has changed.
Documents left behind by the Russian army at the end of October also painted a dilapidated picture of the troops, which indicated low morale and a significantly weakened combat capability.
But Ukrainian soldiers are also reporting great hardship at the front.
(smu)
