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Volunteers wait for Ukrainian refugees at Berlin Central Station (March 2022)
Photo: Maja Hitij / Getty Images
Good news first: A large majority of Europeans are still in favor of taking in Ukrainian refugees.
Solidarity with Ukraine remains strong.
But will she remain so?
The figures from the fifth annual study by the Mercator Forum on Migration and Democracy (MIDEM), which was published in Berlin on Monday, raise doubts about this for the first time.
Only 40 percent of Europeans think that their country should continue to support Ukraine unreservedly, despite the negative economic and social consequences.
According to the MIDEM study, in almost all European countries a majority advocates limiting immigration, even in Sweden, which has traditionally been more open to migration.
Almost nine months after the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, solidarity with Ukraine among the population seems to be crumbling - including in Germany.
Over 20,400 respondents from ten EU countries
MIDEM, in cooperation with the polling institute YouGov, surveyed more than 20,400 people in ten EU member states between September and October - the focus was on countries that were hardest hit by the refugee movement.
Germany is also one of them.
With over a million Ukrainian refugees admitted, this country has the second largest share of the receiving countries after Poland.
Majorities for limiting immigration from Ukraine
But solidarity in Europe with Ukraine is beginning to shrink.
This is made clear by the fact that, according to the MIDEM study, a clear majority in almost all European countries is now in favor of limiting immigration from the Ukraine.
This is most evident in Central and Eastern European countries such as the Czech Republic and Hungary, where concerns about overburdening are growing and targeted false reports and disinformation campaigns are reinforcing this development.
Unlike in Germany, where you can build on the experiences of 2015, the East Central European states could not fall back on existing structures at the beginning of the war.
Instead, it was civil society that did much of the building of first aid facilities.
The willingness to take in refugees from Ukraine and give them access to education and work was still high in Eastern Europe at the beginning of the war, but according to the study, this solidarity with Ukraine is now beginning to shrink, especially in the Czech Republic and Hungary.
Solidarity with Ukraine is also declining in Germany, and here too there is now a relative majority that votes not to support Ukraine at any price.
Almost 42 percent of Germans are therefore of the opinion that support for Ukraine should be limited in view of the negative consequences for themselves.
With this value, Germany is level with France in the middle of Europe, just ahead of Italy.
Big differences between East and West Germany
However, there is no consensus in Germany on this question.
According to the MIDEM study, there are major differences between East and West Germany.
According to this, people in eastern Germany – along with the Czech Republic and Hungary – would show the least willingness among the countries surveyed to continue to support Ukraine, even in view of growing economic costs.
Only 28 percent of those surveyed voted in favor, which is well below the average of 39 percent.
The survey also shows that in East Germany more than a third of the people blame NATO for the war.
The approval of statements critical of migration is also higher there than in western Germany.
According to MIDEM director Hans Vorländer, "a stress test for solidarity with the Ukraine" could therefore be pending in winter, when a new flight from the Ukraine is expected.
Caritas Association: Energy crisis has consequences for social commitment
Charitable associations such as Caritas are initially pleased that, nine months after the start of the war of aggression, a "great willingness to help" still prevails.
Some refugees from Ukraine are still being accommodated privately or are being supported by volunteers.
"What has been and is being done here is a great sign of social solidarity," according to the statement by the German Caritas Association.
At the same time, however, worries and fears with regard to the growing energy and living costs would also increase, which would have consequences for social commitment.
"Strengthening social cohesion is not a sure-fire success - in this challenging situation, clear political signals and attitude are needed," the German Caritas Association continues.
"Under no circumstances should people in need of protection or help be played off against one another."
